*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by O.city

WhO are you thinking ends up with the WC in the al?

Tough to say. Houston and Toronto would be my guess.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

I don't see much competition in the AL against the Royals aside from maybe the Angels.

It all depends on when we catch these teams. Last year we were fortunate to face the Angels and the Orioles when they were ice cold offensively.
We scored 4 runs total in games 3 and 4 of the ALCS and won them both.

Not to mention that every facet of the Royals' game was working beautifully during those series.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Anything can happen in a short series. Anything.

If the Giants can win 3 World Series with average to dogshit offenses in five years, if the 2006 Cardinals, who won 83 games, can beat the Mets and Tigers w/o HFA in either series with Josh Kinney, Randy Flores, Josh Hancock, and Tyler Johnson playing pivotal roles in the bullpen and if the 2004 Red Sox can win eight straight games against two teams who won over 100 games, then anything can happen.

Absolutely, its one of the reasons, for the most part, Im against giving up alot for a rental. You can mortgage part of your future just to get unlucky (which is most of the time) and lose. The most important thing is being relevant every year and putting yourself in a position to succeed in the postseason. Thats exactly who the Cardinals and Giants are.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by tk13

We've had these arguments before, but PB is purely an offensive guy. He thinks offense is the most important thing by far. I think pitching, especially starting pitching, is. Although I'll concede the Royals bullpen is so ridiculously good it negates some of that.

Still you're right, that's what I like about baseball... you can win different ways if you are playing to your strengths at a high level. There have been teams that mash the ball, teams with terrible offenses but good pitching, teams with speed and defense. It makes the game interesting.

I think it's easier to get good enough pitching in the playoffs than to get good enough offense l, especially in a short series.

It's all matchups though, but give me offense and decent pitching.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Tigers getting pounded.

God I hope they don't sell. It would be funny watching them age another year and watch them lose 90 games next year

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Tough to say. Houston and Toronto would be my guess.

Shitty thing about houston in a short series is that ballpark. The Crawford boxes can swing a series so fast.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Tough to say. Houston and Toronto would be my guess.

1st all AL World Series? I could be down.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by SPchief

God I hope they don't sell. It would be funny watching them age another year and watch them lose 90 games next year

It's what I am hoping for, as well. I want their 90 year old owner to really try to keep that thing together and fail miserably.

I love seeing the juggernaut fall.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by O.city

Shitty thing about houston in a short series is that ballpark. The Crawford boxes can swing a series so fast.

Yeah, that's what scares me. Same thing with the short corners at Yankee Stadium. We couldn't put ourselves in a position where we were starting Guthrie and Chris Young in games 3 & 4 in those ballparks.

I really think Houston is going to make it. They're so young, they definitely have September fade potential... but they have so much talent and a legit ace.

Minnesota's more likely to be caught, but I have no idea who. 8 teams are within 6.5 of them. Any of those teams gets hot like the Royals did last year, they can get in.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

I don't see much competition in the AL against the Royals aside from maybe the Angels.

The Yankees are really coming on strong, surely ARods HGH will wear off any moment though. Seems like a solid club and Girardi has done a fantastic job with that club the last couple of years. They have alot of bad contracts and are kind overachieving. There are no just god awful teams in the AL, but lots of bottom feeders in the NL to pad those wins and the Royals are still the 2nd best team in baseball.

And as usual the AL is cleaning up on the weaker NL in interleague play 114-94. PB is actually right, the NL is JV.

[Willie Lanier]

Originally Posted by KCCHIEFS27

Tim Kurkjian said that Reed could be a #3 starter and he's the one with the highest ceiling. Well, ok. At the moment, what a great deal. Again, as of now.

Remember when Kyle drabek was the sticking point to what ended up being a failed deal for doc halladay? It's all speculation, we have a proven (rental) entity to make a push

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

While their starting pitching isn't as deep as it was overall (although it was mostly crap past Bumgarner) the Giants are much, much better on offense, have a better #2, and the Royals lost the season series to the Cardinals 4-2.

Both teams (Royals and Giants) have improved a lot offensively, and they are both top 10* in OPS and runs after being middle-of-the-pack in those areas a season ago. The offensive profiles are actually really, really similar this season. *The Royals are technically 11th in R while the Giants are 7th, but just 7 runs separate them.

I think both teams have actually improved since a season ago. KC's rotation does have the potential now to set up much better than a season ago heading into the playoffs, if recent signs from Duffy and Ventura develop into a trend over the rest of the season. Having Duffy replace Vargas, Ventura pitching like his 2014 vintage, Cueto replace Shields and Volquez replace Guthrie looks like an upgrade at 3 of 4 spots.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

It's interesting how Heyman has a much more positive view of the Royals pieces to this trade than anyone here...

I have a very positive view of Reed and think Lamb and Finnegan both have value. It's just that Reed is the No. 4 guy in the Royals prospect SP depth chart (Behind Almonte, Zimmer and Manaea). So even though he's got a ton of potential, he's not as painful to lose as those guys. I'm actually really surprised the Reds did not try to insist on Miguel Almonte, who is closer to the show, rather than Reed.

The Royals have a lot of SP depth and quality... but this is more of a quantity/depth hit than anything else.

Here's a 2016 SP depth chart (before the trade):

Volquez
Ventura
Duffy
Medlen
Lamb (maybe - if Zimmer, say, were ready to roll in spring training and performed well, they'd jump him in front of Lamb)
Zimmer (these three in a somewhat random order)
Manaea
Almonte
Finnegan
Reed

So you're losing guys 5, 9 and 10 out of your depth chart (and this assumes the Royals wouldn't have spent money on a FA guy to fill the 5th rotation spot).

2017 only looks slightly different.

2017
Volquez
Ventura
Duffy
Vargas
Medlen* (mutual option)
Zimmer
Manaea
Almonte
Lamb (at this point, the more highly regarded guys have probably developed past Lamb)
Reed (probably will have passed Finny at this point)
Finnegan

Beyond that, you're too far out to project much, but the Royals have a high number of guys who could be factoring into the equation (Scott Blewett, Foster Griffin, Pedro Fernandez, Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson) that are at lower levels currently.

It's not that the Royals didn't give up quality. They did. It just wasn't as much as some feared Cueto might cost, and it doesn't hurt the overall depth chart that much.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by O.city

WhO are you thinking ends up with the WC in the al?

Houston and Toronto is my guess.

[tk13]

Buster Olney theorizing what if the Yankees went after Kimbrel. Screw that noise. If we got in a series with them they'd all be 4 inning games.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Anything can happen in a short series. Anything.

If the Giants can win 3 World Series with average to dogshit offenses in five years, if the 2006 Cardinals, who won 83 games, can beat the Mets and Tigers w/o HFA in either series with Josh Kinney, Randy Flores, Josh Hancock, and Tyler Johnson playing pivotal roles in the bullpen and if the 2004 Red Sox can win eight straight games against two teams who won over 100 games, then anything can happen.

THIS! The Royals get hot, they can beat anyone in the playoffs.