*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=2402

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

Prove that it erased the doubt from Moustakas, then.

When I see Moustakas I see a guy who tries to make contact more than last year, so he K's a little less. He hits the same number of balls hard this year compared to last. His isolated power is the same. His walk rate is the same. His line drive rate is the same.

The only thing Moustakas has changed is that he's less pull happy. It's made him a more complete hitter, but certainly not a more powerful one. That's not a change due to confidence, that's a change in approach.

It's also an example of why saying "I've watched 90 Royals games" is largely meaningless. You can look at a guy through 350 at bats and claim that he's a completely different player when the data demonstrates that he is now using all fields and that (in part because he's hitting to all fields) he isn't hitting into rat shit luck to the tune of a .220 BABIP.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I used to be more of a supporter for the run differential stat. But, I think in baseball it can be flawed.

High OBP, high K guys feast on garbage pitching. They feast on the #5 guy, long relief, or chodes you just put in when you are down and probably going to lose the game. These situations, they matter less. In the playoffs, you don't even see the #5 guy, so the fat high OBP guy doesn't get to feast upon these pitchers in the playoffs. Usually teams with shitty starting pitching, don't make the playoffs anyway, so this further skews the numbers.

This basically allows these players and teams to produce some gaudy looking numbers, when these other teams basically, in layman's terms, aren't trying their hardest and are saving their closers, set up man, and #1s and #2s for games that actually matter.

High OBP, High K guys.... I think you may be looking at that with kind of an altered vision of Adam Dunn, etc... but in reality... these type of players also include the Reggie Jackson's, the Mike Trout's, the Alex Rodriguez's... these are some of the best hitters in the game. And some of the most productive hitters in Post Season. I don't really think you can classify it all like that.... or maybe i'm reading your classification too literally.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Prove that it erased the doubt from Moustakas, then.

When I see Moustakas I see a guy who tries to make contact more than last year, so he K's a little less. He hits the same number of balls hard this year compared to last. His isolated power is the same. His walk rate is the same. His line drive rate is the same.

The only thing Moustakas has changed is that he's less pull happy. It's made him a more complete hitter, but certainly not a more powerful one. That's not a change due to confidence, that's a change in approach.

It's also an example of why saying "I've watched 90 Royals games" is largely meaningless. You can look at a guy through 350 at bats and claim that he's a completely different player when the data demonstrates that he is now using all fields and that (in part because he's hitting to all fields) he isn't hitting into rat shit luck to the tune of a .220 BABIP.

You've been silent so far on the "3 starter vs 5 starter" debate. Where do you fall? Do you see the distinction or are you like me that it's itrelevant?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You've been silent so far on the "3 starter vs 5 starter" debate. Where do you fall? Do you see the distinction or are you like me that it's itrelevant?

I don't even know what you're talking about.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

It doesn't matter what the cause of the slump is. He was pitching great earlier in the year, and he's pitching like garbage now. He needs to go to the bullpen because Guthrie is outperforming him.

If Alex Gordon was in a slump, but a known player worse than him like Dyson was hitting better, you would put Gordon as the 4th OF and ignore other historical data?

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't even know what you're talking about.

Ok. Do you think there's a difference between a 3 and a 5 starter or do you think they're essentially indistinguishable as they get the same number of starts?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

At this point I'm more worried about some other team getting hot and beating us in the playoffs.

As you should. How many of the World Series Champions in the last 10 years were actually the best team? I bet not many. Certainly not the Giants or the Cardinals. Thats 5 of the championships right there.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Ok. Do you think there's a difference between a 3 and a 5 starter or do you think they're essentially indistinguishable as they get the same number of starts?

Their expectations are completely different. A #3 starter is expected to be a better than league average pitcher. They will go deeper into games, too. They'll face more batters and thus have a bigger outcome on the team's success per start. A #5 starter is going to be, on average, one of the 30 worst starters in the league. They will give up more runs and work shorter outings. They put the team in worse positions and tax the bullpen harder on average.

Morever, many teams use off days as a way to skip the #5 if possible. Fives are also almost completely worthless in the postseason, as they are used either as long relief, mop up duty, or extra innings games only.

The difference between a #3 and a #5 in a H2H matchup may only be 5%, but when you multiply that by 34 starts it can make the difference between making the postseason or not.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Ok. Do you think there's a difference between a 3 and a 5 starter or do you think they're essentially indistinguishable as they get the same number of starts?

This sounds like a really inane topic. Do you happen to be a producer at Sports Radio 610?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Their expectations are completely different. A #3 starter is expected to be a better than league average pitcher. They will go deeper into games, too. They'll face more batters and thus have a bigger outcome on the team's success per start. A #5 starter is going to be, on average, one of the 30 worst starters in the league. They will give up more runs and work shorter outings. They put the team in worse positions and tax the bullpen harder on average.

Morever, many teams use off days as a way to skip the #5 if possible. Fives are also almost completely worthless in the postseason, as they are used either as long relief, mop up duty, or extra innings games only.

The difference between a #3 and a #5 in a H2H matchup may only be 5%, but when you multiply that by 34 starts it can make the difference between making the postseason or not.

So, you would probably also agree that you shouldn't bat your 9th best OPS guy in the #1 spot either, since he will get more plate appearances at the expense of others who are more deserving?

[C3HIEF3S]

Oh, we're ****ed.

Just FYI: The Indians, after getting swept by the White Sox at home, held the dreaded Players Only meeting after the game. #Royals

— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) July 27, 2015

[keg in kc]

Only here could you see a conversation about major league baseball involve a guy talking about how much he knows because almost a decade ago he was one of the top ten slow pitch softballers in his area.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by BWillie

So, you would probably also agree that you shouldn't bat your 9th best OPS guy in the #1 spot either, since he will get more plate appearances at the expense of others who are more deserving?

Is he the worst OPS guy because he has no power, but he still gets on base a lot, or is he Omar Infante?

If I was making the Royals lineup, it would probably go like this (assuming health)

Gordon
Cain
Hosmer
Morales
Moustakas
Perez
Escobar
Rios
Infante

Although you could probably put 6,7,8 in any order you choose. Nevertheless, Infante is a terrible hitter and you should give him as few opportunities as possible.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Is he the worst OPS guy because he has no power, but he still gets on base a lot, or is he Omar Infante?

If I was making the Royals lineup, it would probably go like this (assuming health)

Gordon
Cain
Hosmer
Morales
Moustakas
Perez
Escobar
Rios
Infante

Although you could probably put 6,7,8 in any order you choose. Nevertheless, Infante is a terrible hitter and you should give him as few opportunities as possible.

9th in OPS, 6th in OBP, 9th in HR (of those players that actually have more than 125 ABs)

It's Escobar. Not going to get too worried about it right now with Gordon out, but when Gordon is back, and we are still batting him 6th and Escobar 1st I'm going to kick Ned in the nuts.

No complaints with that line up.