Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 175

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

ChiefsCountry · 07-28-2015, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

There's plenty of room to walk the middle ground with analytics and "baseball logic."

A balanced approach is the best way to go, IMO. Rely only on analytics, and you're Paul DePodesta/Keith Law. Rely only on "baseball logic and scouting" and you're the Arizona Diamondbacks.

You can't rely entirely on analytics, because you miss things like Moustakas remaking his entire approach over the offseason and becoming a completely different hitter. (For the record, hamas mentioned that in his breakdown of the changes).

But you can't rely entirely on the 'scout's eye' either, because sometimes a players raw skills and abilities don't translate to reality.

**DeezNutz** · 07-28-2015, 10:01 AM

Straight statistical analysis will never be able to account fully for the mental aspect of the game, and therefore it becomes a circular argument.

Prove that Moose's mind ****ing hurt his numbers last year!!! Well...

Dude hadn't seen the shift all spring training, and then the season starts. And the shift is all that he sees. He goes for ****ing ever before getting a hit, and then he's gripping for the majority of the year.

Yeah, his approach is different this year, but success (such as the post-season success he enjoyed last year) makes it easier for players to be willing to change. Sounds strange, I know, but when the wheels fall the **** off, like it did for him last year, he's going back to what has always made him successful, and that's pull, pull, pull.

If you haven't played sports (and this is magnified if you have never played at a high level), I don't think you can have a full appreciation for the mental component.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

it's why I can't really take people like 'Hamas' or PB serious because they look at fangraphs and then make conclusions

just yesterday Hamas was like 'nah Moose is the same guy he just had rat shit luck with BABIP last year!'

he totally ignored the fact that was because Moose constantly just pulled the ball into the shift. Every ****ing time. Over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over. OF COURSE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE BABIP WHEN YOU HIT INTO THE DEFENSE EVERY TIME. That's the point of the shift.

This offseason, he worked on it, he became a complete hitter, and now he has more hits to left field than he does to right field. Of course his BABIP is going to much higher when he's using THE ENTIRE FIELD. You can't just say, "well he's just luckier this year because his BABIP is way up compared to last year!" There is a reason for that.
.

You can't even read or lie worth a shit. Are the baby steps that ****ing hard?

Here's what I said to your claim that "confidence made him a better player."

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Prove that it erased the doubt from Moustakas, then.

When I see Moustakas I see a guy who tries to make contact more than last year, so he K's a little less. He hits the same number of balls hard this year compared to last. His isolated power is the same. His walk rate is the same. His line drive rate is the same.

The only thing Moustakas has changed is that he's less pull happy. It's made him a more complete hitter, but certainly not a more powerful one. That's not a change due to confidence, that's a change in approach.

It's also an example of why saying "I've watched 90 Royals games" is largely meaningless. You can look at a guy through 350 at bats and claim that he's a completely different player when the data demonstrates that he is now using all fields and that (in part because he's hitting to all fields) he isn't hitting into rat shit luck to the tune of a .220 BABIP.

So, you are either incapable of understanding what I posted or you just make shit up in an attempt to change the narrative.

Your claim was that confidence made him a better hitter. I asked for evidence, you provided none.

My claim was that he became less pull happy, which is what led to the uptick in his BA and BABIP. I provided hard data. It also indicated that he isn't hitting the ball any harder or seeing it much better (same walk rate, same BB profile).

Again, show me where Moustakas' confidence plays into this, or shut the **** up.

**srvy** · 07-28-2015, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunit35

No. He means Alex Smith and this year.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Straight statistical analysis will never be able to account fully for the mental aspect of the game, and therefore it becomes a circular argument.

Prove that Moose's mind ****ing hurt his numbers last year!!! Well...

Dude hadn't seen the shift all spring training, and then the season starts. And the shift is all that he sees. He goes for ****ing ever before getting a hit, and then he's gripping for the majority of the year.

Yeah, his approach is different this year, but success (such as the post-season success he enjoyed last year) makes it easier for players to be willing to change. Sounds strange, I know, but when the wheels fall the **** off, like it did for him last year, he's going back to what has always made him successful, and that's pull, pull, pull.

If you haven't played sports (and this is magnified if you have never played at a high level), I don't think you can have a full appreciation for the mental component.

This is completely wrong. You know what people often due when they encounter issues? They change. Why do you think that batters in slumps change aspects of their swings? Why do you think that Tiger Woods is on yet another swing coach?

Not only does your claim lack any hard data, it relies on a post-hoc fallacy, and it's also rebutted by observational evidence of athlete upon athlete who doesn't do that.

BWillie · 07-28-2015, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

When success in scoring is dependent on accomplishing a task in which it's considered very good if you can be successful between 3 and 4 times out of 10, welcome to arbitrary chance. The difference between an extremely good team and an average team is about the outcome of 15 - 20 games.

You go from 81 and 81 to between 96 to 101 and 61 to 66.

Hence , the inpredictability come playoff time.

Great post. Luck is a part of baseball, time to accept it.

**DeezNutz** · 07-28-2015, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

This is completely wrong. You know what people often due when they encounter issues? They change. Why do you think that batters in slumps change aspects of their swings? Why do you think that Tiger Woods is on yet another swing coach?

Not only does your claim lack any hard data, it relies on a post-hoc fallacy, and it's also rebutted by observational evidence of athlete upon athlete who doesn't do that.

You believe that bat angle or timing mechanisms are the same as approach for an individual who holds (held?) a record for home runs in CA?

Feel free to dismiss the impact of the post-season by claiming logical fallacy. Not going to waste time engaging in this debate because I agree that there isn't going to be "hard data" to support such claims.

Prison Bitch · 07-28-2015, 10:18 AM

"Scouts eye" folks are no diff from anyone else: they seek confirmation bias for their own views. Take Paul Goldschmidt: no scout liked him and he was never even a top-10 org prospect for AZ. Has killed everything since AA with no major slumps. Scouts totally missed him and they never bring him up.

**DeezNutz** · 07-28-2015, 10:19 AM

By the way, Hosmer, who has struggled mightily at points in his ML career and is one of Moose's best friends, is also rumored to be very, very open to change and adjustments.

Hootie · 07-28-2015, 10:33 AM

you said that Moose had 'rat shit' luck of a .220 BABIP last year. Uh no, he didn't. He hit a billion ground balls to the right side of the infield, right into the shift. He pressed all year. He was sent to AAA. For the first time in his life, his career was in jeopardy.

...and then the postseason happened. George Brett told him, "hey, everyone is at .000 now." Why did he say that? Because he watched Moose press ALL year long.

He crushed the postseason both at the plate and in the field. It gave him ALL SORTS of confidence. He parlayed that confidence into becoming a complete hitter. Learning how to beat the shift. Having the luxury of knowing his career was safe helped him do all of this.

I don't know what your sports background is, Hamas. Or PB. Or anyone. But if you think confidence in baseball has nothing to do with hitting ... you're ****ing wrong. Plain and simple. "Seeing the ball well" is another way of saying, "that hitter has a lot of confidence right now."

It's hilarious to me. Talent gets you there, no doubt. You have to have talent. The difference between guys who make it with talent and guys who maybe don't is confidence. I predicted before the year that if Moose came out and FINALLY had a strong April he'd be a force this year. No pressing.

So far, what has happened?

I know, I guess I was lucky again. Just like I was lucky in Volquez. Just like I was lucky when I mocked PECOTA, fangraphs and Vegas for predicting us to have between 72-80 wins.

Yep. Luck.

Hootie · 07-28-2015, 10:34 AM

I said if Cain kept his weight back he could hit 20 HR's ...

I know, luck.

I guess I'm just the luckiest ****ing baseball fan in the world when it comes to predicting things that I watch.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

You believe that bat angle or timing mechanisms are the same as approach for an individual who holds (held?) a record for home runs in CA?

Feel free to dismiss the impact of the post-season by claiming logical fallacy. Not going to waste time engaging in this debate because I agree that there isn't going to be "hard data" to support such claims.

If that hard data existed, you could find it. If your claim is true, then post-season success leads to sustainable differences in player production after said success occurs that can't be accounted for by either a small sample size issue or a player's natural aging curve.

The most likely evidence, which is supportable, is that Moustakas looked at his 2014 numbers, saw how pull happy he was, and decided to change things to increase his batting average rather than rolling everything over to the second baseman.

I'm sure Chris Davis had a **** of a lot more confidence after his 50 HR season, but he's never been able to repeat it. Same thing with Bautista. Not surprisingly, both achieved such successes after swing changes, not by being the hitters they always were.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

you said that Moose had 'rat shit' luck of a .220 BABIP last year. Uh no, he didn't. He hit a billion ground balls to the right side of the infield, right into the shift. He pressed all year. He was sent to AAA. For the first time in his life, his career was in jeopardy.

...and then the postseason happened. George Brett told him, "hey, everyone is at .000 now." Why did he say that? Because he watched Moose press ALL year long.

He crushed the postseason both at the plate and in the field. It gave him ALL SORTS of confidence. He parlayed that confidence into becoming a complete hitter. Learning how to beat the shift. Having the luxury of knowing his career was safe helped him do all of this.

I don't know what your sports background is, Hamas. Or PB. Or anyone. But if you think confidence in baseball has nothing to do with hitting ... you're ****ing wrong. Plain and simple. "Seeing the ball well" is another way of saying, "that hitter has a lot of confidence right now."

It's hilarious to me. Talent gets you there, no doubt. You have to have talent. The difference between guys who make it with talent and guys who maybe don't is confidence. I predicted before the year that if Moose came out and FINALLY had a strong April he'd be a force this year. No pressing.

So far, what has happened?

I know, I guess I was lucky again. Just like I was lucky in Volquez. Just like I was lucky when I mocked PECOTA, fangraphs and Vegas for predicting us to have between 72-80 wins.

Yep. Luck.

I'll say it again: prove that his confidence is what made him change his approach.

Prison Bitch · 07-28-2015, 10:40 AM

Not sure Moose is the best example here, as Steamer really liked him a proj a 3 WAR season.

**DeezNutz** · 07-28-2015, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If that hard data existed, you could find it. If your claim is true, then post-season success leads to sustainable differences in player production after said success occurs that can't be accounted for by either a small sample size issue or a player's natural aging curve.

The most likely evidence, which is supportable, is that Moustakas looked at his 2014 numbers, saw how pull happy he was, and decided to change things to increase his batting average rather than rolling everything over to the second baseman.

I'm sure Chris Davis had a **** of a lot more confidence after his 50 HR season, but he's never been able to repeat it. Same thing with Bautista. Not surprisingly, both achieved such successes after swing changes, not by being the hitters they always were.

In Moose's case, I believe the post-season success gave him the confidence that he was a major-league player. Last year, he was simply fighting to survive, including enjoying about 5 hours in Omaha when he was demoted, but then his slap-dick replacement was immediately injured.

Embracing a paradigm shift as big as Moose did coming into this year demands a level of confidence in just belonging. That's what I believe last October gave him.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1979692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,397

07-28-2015, 10:18 AM	#2618
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	"Scouts eye" folks are no diff from anyone else: they seek confirmation bias for their own views. Take Paul Goldschmidt: no scout liked him and he was never even a top-10 org prospect for AZ. Has killed everything since AA with no major slumps. Scouts totally missed him and they never bring him up.
Posts: 87,025

07-28-2015, 10:33 AM	#2620
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	you said that Moose had 'rat shit' luck of a .220 BABIP last year. Uh no, he didn't. He hit a billion ground balls to the right side of the infield, right into the shift. He pressed all year. He was sent to AAA. For the first time in his life, his career was in jeopardy. ...and then the postseason happened. George Brett told him, "hey, everyone is at .000 now." Why did he say that? Because he watched Moose press ALL year long. He crushed the postseason both at the plate and in the field. It gave him ALL SORTS of confidence. He parlayed that confidence into becoming a complete hitter. Learning how to beat the shift. Having the luxury of knowing his career was safe helped him do all of this. I don't know what your sports background is, Hamas. Or PB. Or anyone. But if you think confidence in baseball has nothing to do with hitting ... you're ****ing wrong. Plain and simple. "Seeing the ball well" is another way of saying, "that hitter has a lot of confidence right now." It's hilarious to me. Talent gets you there, no doubt. You have to have talent. The difference between guys who make it with talent and guys who maybe don't is confidence. I predicted before the year that if Moose came out and FINALLY had a strong April he'd be a force this year. No pressing. So far, what has happened? I know, I guess I was lucky again. Just like I was lucky in Volquez. Just like I was lucky when I mocked PECOTA, fangraphs and Vegas for predicting us to have between 72-80 wins. Yep. Luck.
Posts: 56,356

07-28-2015, 10:34 AM	#2621
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I said if Cain kept his weight back he could hit 20 HR's ... I know, luck. I guess I'm just the luckiest ****ing baseball fan in the world when it comes to predicting things that I watch.
Posts: 56,356

07-28-2015, 10:40 AM	#2624
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Not sure Moose is the best example here, as Steamer really liked him a proj a 3 WAR season.
Posts: 87,025