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Old 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***



And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:40 PM   #5746
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by nychief View Post
Pitching. Bat. Bullpen arm.
Bats bats bats. Lineup sucked balls. Without a healthy Cain this is one of the worst lineups in the AL. Dead last in wRC+ at 88. To wit:


146 qualifiers, fWAR


1. Trout
119. Gordon
135. Kendrys
137. Alshittys
143. Cuthbert
144. Hosmer
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:42 PM   #5747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Bats bats bats. Lineup sucked balls. Without a healthy Cain this is one of the worst lineups in the AL. To wit:


146 qualifiers, fWAR


1. Trout
119. Gordon
135. Kendrys
137. Alshittys
143. Cuthbert
144. Hosmer
I thought Dyson more than made up Cain's absence from your WAR calculations.

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Old 10-02-2016, 09:44 PM   #5748
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
I thought Dyson more than made up Cain's absence from your WAR calculations.

I keed, I keed.
You laugh, but Dyson finished the year #1 in war at 3.0, with only 334 PA. That's how utterly shitty this offense was.
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:45 PM   #5749
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
You laugh, but Dyson finished the year #1 in war at 3.0, with only 334 PA. That's how utterly shitty this offense was.
This is why I don't put a lot of stock into fangraphs WAR. Our offense sucked, but they always overvalue Jarrod.
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:56 PM   #5750
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This is why I don't put a lot of stock into fangraphs WAR. Our offense sucked, but they always overvalue Jarrod.
Meh. He led the team on Baseball Reference to at the same 2.9 value.


He's an awesome defender and awesome base runner. He even hit .277 with an ops of .725 (wRC+ of 93 which was close to Cain at 98 and higher than Salvy, Gordon
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:05 PM   #5751
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Meh. He led the team on Baseball Reference to at the same 2.9 value.


He's an awesome defender and awesome base runner. He even hit .277 with an ops of .725 (wRC+ of 93 which was close to Cain at 98 and higher than Salvy, Gordon
Don't get me wrong, Jarrod is one of my favorites and I'll be forever appreciate his amazing defense and base-running in clutch situations.

However, I've always felt he was overvalued for the playing time he was receiving. He did make strides on offense this year (and was one of the few), but according to fWar, it should have been a minimum drop off for us when we switched to Dyson from Cain judging by Cain's 2016 WAR. The fact that this obviously wasn't the case makes me wonder if these metrics are off in some capacity.
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:37 AM   #5752
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Writing on the wall regarding 2017 and beyond:





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Old 10-03-2016, 10:42 AM   #5753
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:46 AM   #5754
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WAR is an excellent tool but can't be judged in a vacuum. Like most baseball stats, you have to apply some context to it.

I'm actually more optimistic about Dyson being ready for everyday play than I've ever been, though. He finally accepted who he was as a hitter in the second half.

Stick him in CF, play Cain in RF, and give Dyson breaks vs tough lefties.


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Old 10-03-2016, 10:50 AM   #5755
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Writing on the wall regarding 2017 and beyond:






Moore has talked about how poor they are and how payroll has to come down for several years in a row now. I have a hard time taking that seriously.


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Old 10-03-2016, 11:09 AM   #5756
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Yeah, he says that literally every year. The only time they've cut payroll really is when they brought up Moose, Hosmer, etc... And that was because they were all rookies or young players. It wasn't some intentional payroll cut. I imagine we'll see a lesser version of that in 2018, but not next year.
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Old 10-03-2016, 11:36 AM   #5757
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Moore has talked about how poor they are and how payroll has to come down for several years in a row now. I have a hard time taking that seriously.


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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Yeah, he says that literally every year. The only time they've cut payroll really is when they brought up Moose, Hosmer, etc... And that was because they were all rookies or young players. It wasn't some intentional payroll cut. I imagine we'll see a lesser version of that in 2018, but not next year.
Exactly. You don't go to a car lot and tell the salesman how much you have in the bank.
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:08 PM   #5758
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WAR is an excellent tool but can't be judged in a vacuum. Like most baseball stats, you have to apply some context to it.
I look at WAR kind of like Waze. It can steer you away from major wrecks, and show you some interesting routes you may not have even realized. But if you rely on it solely it will have you turning left from a stop sign at the end of a small side street - onto a 4-lane road at rush hour. You have to cross-reference with reality.

I played online poker Sit N Goes for a living for 3 years. It's a very similar concept. You can and should study the math (SNGs are very math-heavy). But the real art is knowing when to follow the numbers and when to deviate.
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:12 PM   #5759
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Team WAR is very highly correlated to record, so no, it's not just some helpful tool. It's extremely predictive.
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:30 PM   #5760
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Stop hating on Paulo he's been the only consistant hitter on the team!
Bravo.

Only one to finish hitting above .300 on a team of a few high paid stars. I hope they sign him to another contract as he was the best $550k player in the MLB.
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