Lancet study: "..the safest level of (alcohol) drinking is none."

[DanT]

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 report just published in Lancet included an interesting observational epidemiological study assessing the public health impact of alcohol, which found that the safest level of drinking is none. Here's the conclusion from that report

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for disease burden worldwide, accounting for nearly 10% of global deaths among populations aged 15–49 years, and poses dire ramifications for future population health in the absence of policy action today. The widely held view of the health benefits of alcohol needs revising, particularly as improved methods and analyses continue to show how much alcohol use contributes to global death and disability. Our results show that the safest level of drinking is none. This level is in conflict with most health guidelines, which espouse health benefits associated with consuming up to two drinks per day. Alcohol use contributes to health loss from many causes and exacts its toll across the lifespan, particularly among men. Policies that focus on reducing population-level consumption will be most effective in reducing the health loss from alcohol use.

Here's a link to the BBC report on the study, which has some useful background and commentary: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45283401

And, finally, here are a couple of critical commentaries, one from Cambridge University's David Spiegelhalter discussing the absolute risk associated with moderate drinking and alternative interpretations of the study results: https://medium.com/wintoncentre/the-...n-2ae8cb006a4a
and another from HealthNewsReview reviewing important limitations in observational research: https://www.healthnewsreview.org/201...el-of-alcohol/

[Demonpenz]

How many people would blow their brains out without booze. Get back to me.

[TimeForWasp]

Originally Posted by Graystoke

Is Bacon still dangerous?
Asking for a friend

Alah akbar

[jdubya]

I think I read through this thread last night but I don`t remember.......I was lit to the gills

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by DanT

In addition to being pleasurable for many, alcohol has some good health benefits for certain conditions like ischemic heart disease and diabetes, but on average those get far outweighed by the detrimental effects of alcohol in regard to cancer, self-harm, and other conditions...at least, that's the conclusion of this study, which took account of various findings of earlier studies in regard to the benefits and harms of alcohol in regard to each of over twenty health conditions . The Global Burden of Disease reports are well-regarded. Here's a link to their website: http://www.healthdata.org/gbd

'Self-harm and other conditions' that is the crucial weasel phrase.

The allegation of no safe level of alcohol consumption sets up the notion that alcohol in your system will eventually prove debilitating no matter what.

But 'other conditions' such as self-harm are indicative of dangers occasioned by excessive consumption, or danger due, not to biological response to ethanol, but dangerous habits or activities due to ethanol levels in excess of your ability to handle.

This suggests that there are levels of consumption where the pleasurable benefits and other health benefits are enjoyed with absolutely no heightened danger of self-harm.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

'Self-harm and other conditions' that is the crucial weasel phrase..

There are ways to control for this in both a study and meta-analysis.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Was thinking about offing myself until I had a beer. Now i feel all warm and cozy.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

'Self-harm and other conditions' that is the crucial weasel phrase.

The allegation of no safe level of alcohol consumption sets up the notion that alcohol in your system will eventually prove debilitating no matter what.

But 'other conditions' such as self-harm are indicative of dangers occasioned by excessive consumption, or danger due, not to biological response to ethanol, but dangerous habits or activities due to ethanol levels in excess of your ability to handle.

This suggests that there are levels of consumption where the pleasurable benefits and other health benefits are enjoyed with absolutely no heightened danger of self-harm.

The authors considered about 20 conditions, with self-harm being one of them. They do use self-harm as an example where dependency (and the high consumption levels associated with that) lead to problems, consistent with your supposition. Indeed, it's only at about 3 drinks per day that the increased risk of self harm is established with scientific certainty, as you can see from the dose-response curve on page 130 of their Appendix 1.

[DanT]

Of course, these statistical models involve a lot of averaging. Any individual may have dose-response curves that deviate from those averages.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

How many people would blow their brains out without booze. Get back to me.

For me it was absolutely a crutch I couldn't live without for 4 years.

Every...single...day...for...4...years...I...hated...my...life.

I think it's actually possible I didn't climb a tower because I locked myself in my computer room and sent you guys reeruned PM's at 3am while playing CIV games and sucking down keg beer.

No, not healthy. No, not recommended. No, it didn't help.

I just maintained for a while.

Nose down, keep sledding, it will eventually get better. And it did. Slowly. MUCH more slowly than I thought it would.

Some people look to heroes in hard times. I looked to people that took the easy way out. I said "no matter what, I'm not him. I'm not that."

Looking at the guy passed out face down in the urinal isn't motivational material to most but sometimes you just have to not be that guy and it's a win...

[DanT]

The Onion's "American Voices" feature covered this, too.

https://www.theonion.com/no-amount-o...nds-1828663323