LJ's fantasy value continues slipping

Sam Hall · 06-25-2007, 02:39 PM

L.J.'s fantasy value slips with talk of holdout

By Michael Fabiano
NFL.com Fantasy Expert

June 22, 2007) -- Larry Johnson has established himself as one of the top running backs in fantasy football. But several recent events, none more significant than talk of his potential holdout of training camp, now has Johnson's value headed south.

In an interview with the Kansas City Star, Johnson said he will hold out if he doesn't have a new contract. The talented back is scheduled to make a mere $1.7 million this season, and he and his agent, Alvin Keels, want an agreement that is more in line with the current market for the league's elite backs. The Chiefs have been one of the more frugal franchises in the NFL, so there's no guarantee the team will even make an attractive offer to their most productive offensive threat because of two main reasons: 1. His age (28), and 2. He carried the football an NFL-record 416 times last season.

L.J. has even started to brace himself for a holdout.

"I'm prepared," Johnson told the Star. "They (my agent and father) got me saving money. I'm hustling to get more money to put in the bank. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They're already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that. To make sure that if it goes down like that, then I've got to be able to pace myself so I won't be in trouble."

All of these discussions about a holdout must be worrisome for fantasy football owners, but other factors could also cause Johnson to experience a decrease in statistical success. First off, the trade of veteran quarterback Trent Green will leave the offense to Brodie Croyle, who has made seven regular-season attempts at the NFL level. Since most defenses won't respect Croyle until he proves himself, Johnson could be faced with far more eight-man fronts. Second, the retirement of guard Will Shields makes it two prominent components (tackle Willie Roaf) that the offensive line has lost in the past two seasons.

While we won't jump off the L.J. bandwagon completely -- there's still plenty of time for the Chiefs and Johnson to come to terms on a new contract agreement -- it is now time to move him to third among running backs in standard and PPR formats. As a result, owners who will hold their drafts before the start of training camp (or before a viable solution to this situation is found) should have LaDainian Tomlinson ranked first overall, Steven Jackson moved to second and L.J. third.

http://nfl.com/fantasy/story/10234199

Hammock Parties · 06-25-2007, 02:40 PM

Good. Maybe I'll get to draft him this year.

DMAC · 06-25-2007, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lost in the Mail

Good. Maybe I'll get to draft him this year.

Yes, I will show this article to all of my friends.

Mile High Mania · 06-25-2007, 02:43 PM

Enh, I wouldn't drop his value until the season is about a week from opening day and he's still missing in action. Until then, I'm of the opinion that a deal will get done.

If LJ sits out, then KC will be hard pressed to win 4 games... there's no way that Peterson just lets him sit.

Sam Hall · 06-25-2007, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DMAC

Yes, I will show this article to all of my friends.

smoke signals

Hydrae · 06-25-2007, 02:44 PM

And, somewhat amazingly, Frank Gore should be listed at #4.

sedated · 06-25-2007, 03:03 PM

Stephen Jackson? wtf?

CupidStunt · 06-25-2007, 03:15 PM

Then who the hell gets drafted #3?

LT, SJ, fine... but Gore? Uh... Bush? Portis?

Don't make me laugh. LJ's a top-3 pick without hesitation.

Mile High Mania · 06-25-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

Stephen Jackson? wtf?

It's not like Jackson is a spare. In 2006, LJ had just over 2,100 total yards and 19 TDs while Jackson put up over 2,300 total yards and 16 TDs.

Both RBs are beasts, but LJ is breaking in a new QB...

StcChief · 06-25-2007, 03:16 PM

LJ running outta money, better move home with Daddy during the hold out, watch PSU and work out there.

Stay outta NYC clubs etc. Good....

Mile High Mania · 06-25-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lj4mvp

Then who the hell gets drafted #3?

LT, SJ, fine... but Gore? Uh... Bush? Portis?

Don't make me laugh. LJ's a top-3 pick without hesitation.

LT and Jackson are becoming more and more the consensus 1-2 picks overall with fantasy drafts. LJ is pretty tightly in that #3 role (he is still #2 in a lot of drafts though).

Outside of those 3 though, it gets weird. Many have Alexander back among the elite, but I will pass on him in R1 this season. Gore is pretty much the pick at #4 for most drafts. Bush and Portis (in redraft leagues) are down at the bottom of R1.

Check out www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com / www.antsports.com / www.mockdraftcentral.com - these 3 sites have lots of mock info and solid ADP insight.

**HemiEd** · 06-25-2007, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StcChief

LJ running outta money, better move home with Daddy during the hold out, watch PSU and work out there.

Stay outta NYC clubs etc. Good....

Yep, poor guy.

Direckshun · 06-25-2007, 04:05 PM

OH NOEZ!!!11

RustShack · 06-25-2007, 07:04 PM

I don't mind, it increases my chances of getting him!

Sam Hall · 06-25-2007, 11:10 PM

Hopefully I'm in a keeper league this year so I can keep Joseph Addai. What sucks is that I was the first person who missed the playoffs last year, so I'm picking sixth in the draft. Alexander will be the first pick in our league. You don't know how happy I was to see the owner who had Tomlinson, McNabb and Alexander not earn a spot in the Fantasy Bowl. I'm hoping guys like Portis and McGahee are available at No. 6.

06-25-2007, 02:39 PM
Sam Hall UNSTOPPABLE Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: KC area Casino cash: $9895185	LJ's fantasy value continues slipping L.J.'s fantasy value slips with talk of holdout By Michael Fabiano NFL.com Fantasy Expert June 22, 2007) -- Larry Johnson has established himself as one of the top running backs in fantasy football. But several recent events, none more significant than talk of his potential holdout of training camp, now has Johnson's value headed south. In an interview with the Kansas City Star, Johnson said he will hold out if he doesn't have a new contract. The talented back is scheduled to make a mere $1.7 million this season, and he and his agent, Alvin Keels, want an agreement that is more in line with the current market for the league's elite backs. The Chiefs have been one of the more frugal franchises in the NFL, so there's no guarantee the team will even make an attractive offer to their most productive offensive threat because of two main reasons: 1. His age (28), and 2. He carried the football an NFL-record 416 times last season. L.J. has even started to brace himself for a holdout. "I'm prepared," Johnson told the Star. "They (my agent and father) got me saving money. I'm hustling to get more money to put in the bank. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They're already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that. To make sure that if it goes down like that, then I've got to be able to pace myself so I won't be in trouble." All of these discussions about a holdout must be worrisome for fantasy football owners, but other factors could also cause Johnson to experience a decrease in statistical success. First off, the trade of veteran quarterback Trent Green will leave the offense to Brodie Croyle, who has made seven regular-season attempts at the NFL level. Since most defenses won't respect Croyle until he proves himself, Johnson could be faced with far more eight-man fronts. Second, the retirement of guard Will Shields makes it two prominent components (tackle Willie Roaf) that the offensive line has lost in the past two seasons. While we won't jump off the L.J. bandwagon completely -- there's still plenty of time for the Chiefs and Johnson to come to terms on a new contract agreement -- it is now time to move him to third among running backs in standard and PPR formats. As a result, owners who will hold their drafts before the start of training camp (or before a viable solution to this situation is found) should have LaDainian Tomlinson ranked first overall, Steven Jackson moved to second and L.J. third. http://nfl.com/fantasy/story/10234199
Posts: 8,137

06-25-2007, 02:40 PM	#2
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $1000478	Good. Maybe I'll get to draft him this year. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 296,770

06-25-2007, 02:43 PM	#4
Mile High Mania #triggering Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Tejas Casino cash: $1067229	Enh, I wouldn't drop his value until the season is about a week from opening day and he's still missing in action. Until then, I'm of the opinion that a deal will get done. If LJ sits out, then KC will be hard pressed to win 4 games... there's no way that Peterson just lets him sit. __________________
Posts: 30,894

06-25-2007, 02:44 PM	#6
Hydrae MVP Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Newport, Or Casino cash: $-993000	And, somewhat amazingly, Frank Gore should be listed at #4.
Posts: 14,853

06-25-2007, 03:15 PM	#8
CupidStunt offense > defense Join Date: Jul 2005 Casino cash: $-666668	Then who the hell gets drafted #3? LT, SJ, fine... but Gore? Uh... Bush? Portis? Don't make me laugh. LJ's a top-3 pick without hesitation.
Posts: 9,016

06-25-2007, 03:16 PM	#10
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	LJ running outta money, better move home with Daddy during the hold out, watch PSU and work out there. Stay outta NYC clubs etc. Good....
Posts: 25,901

06-25-2007, 04:05 PM	#13
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2103447	OH NOEZ!!!11
Posts: 59,688

06-25-2007, 07:04 PM	#14
RustShack **** That Noise Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Jack Trice Casino cash: $3116954	I don't mind, it increases my chances of getting him!
Posts: 15,119

06-25-2007, 11:10 PM	#15
Sam Hall UNSTOPPABLE Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: KC area Casino cash: $9895185	Hopefully I'm in a keeper league this year so I can keep Joseph Addai. What sucks is that I was the first person who missed the playoffs last year, so I'm picking sixth in the draft. Alexander will be the first pick in our league. You don't know how happy I was to see the owner who had Tomlinson, McNabb and Alexander not earn a spot in the Fantasy Bowl. I'm hoping guys like Portis and McGahee are available at No. 6. __________________
Posts: 8,137