Gretz: On Top of the Draft

[Tribal Warfare]

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2008/03..._of_the_draft/


On Top of the Draft

Mar 14, 2008, 8:48:14 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ


It’s a funny thing having one of the top choices in the annual NFL Draft.
It’s an exciting time for a franchise because there’s an opportunity to acquire one of the best players coming out of the college ranks. This is where teams get talents like Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, Junior Seau, Marshall Faulk, Peyton Manning and LaDainian Tomlinson. All were top five picks.
But to get that chance, a team must be coming off a horrible season. Either that, or they were lucky enough to make a trade with one of the league’s downtrodden teams.
Unfortunately, those first picks in the draft can also produce players like Tony Mandrich, Darrell Russell, Ryan Leaf, Curtis Enis, Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Charlie Rogers. Disappointments all, they failed because of lack of talent, lack of constitution, injury or all of the above.
In this rarified air for the 2008 Draft sit the Chiefs. It’s the first time they’ve been at the top end of the draft since 1989. With the fourth pick that year, they selected Derrick Thomas and he became the foundation of their franchise for the next decade. That’s exactly what an early first-round choice should represent to a team.
This year is only the third time in the last 21 drafts that the Chiefs have been this high in the first round. The year before Thomas was selected, the Chiefs had the second choice and grabbed defensive end Neil Smith in the 1988 Draft.
Thomas and Smith were hits for the Chiefs. But that guarantees nothing on April 26th when they will use the fifth pick of round one.
Just ask the Arizona Cardinals. In the last 20 Drafts, they have had seven selections among the top five players. They had a second pick, four times they’ve had the third pick, they used a fourth choice and a fifth spot as well.
The Cardinals record in the playoffs since 1988 is 1-1. They’ve had 17 losing records in the last 20 seasons.
Or ask the Cincinnati Bengals. They’ve had eight spots among the top five players in the last 20 Drafts, including three times having the first pick of the draft. The Bengals record in the post-season is 2-3 since ‘88. They’ve had 12 losing seasons.
Same for the Detroit Lions; they’ve had six picks among the top five players, but their record in the playoffs over that same 20-year period is 1-6 and 13 seasons finishing with a losing record.
The Cleveland Browns returned to the NFL for the 1999 season. In the nine drafts since then, they’ve had five selections in the top five, including twice having the first choice in the draft. They are 0-1 in the playoffs with seven losing records in nine seasons of play.
That’s not to say that picking early can’t help. It paid off for the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve had seven selections among the top five players since and including the ‘88 Draft. They are 9-9 in the playoffs, but do have that Super Bowl victory after the 2006 season, led by one of those top five players, Peyton Manning. They’ve had double-digit victories in eight of the last nine seasons.
Over the last 20 years, only two teams have not had a choice among the top five players: Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The last time the Steelers selected among the top five in the Draft was 1970, when they drafted Terry Bradshaw with the first choice. The highest drafting spot the Steelers have had in the first round in the last 20 drafts came in 1989, when they selected running back Tim Worley with the seventh pick.
The Vikings haven’t drafted in the top five since 1985, when they got Chris Doleman with the fourth choice. The highest first-round selection for the Vikings since ‘88 is a seventh pick. They’ve done that four times and have hit on three with LT Bryant McKinnie (2002), DT Kevin Williams (2003), WR Troy Williamson (2005) and RB Adrian Peterson (2007.)
In the last 20 years, the Steelers and Vikings have each had 13 winning seasons with Pittsburgh making the playoffs 12 times, Minnesota 10 times. The Steelers won the Super Bowl two years ago, while Minnesota has not reached the championship game in the last two decades.
Buffalo, Miami, Denver, Philadelphia and San Francisco have had just one top five selection. The Dolphins will get another chance in April, with the first pick in the ‘08 Draft.
Yet the new man in charge of the Dolphins would love to trade out of that No. 1 choice. Bill Parcells can’t find any takers.
That’s because there’s nothing guaranteed when a team drafts at the top of the first round.

Coming on Monday: why trades at the top of the draft have all but disappeared

Last edited by Tribal Warfare; 03-14-2008 at 02:28 PM..
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[whoman69]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Agreed....dare i say that "Goatse" writes better stuff than him...

Let's not get crazy here. Granted it is a fluff piece that doesn't address the Chiefs draft shortcomings. A top 5 pick is supposed to be in the superstar level for a team just as a first round pick should be able to immediately help a team. The Chiefs have quite often traded themselves out of the first round only to reach for a player that we need immediate help on with our top pick in later rounds. Pederson has tended to take high risks in the draft and very rarely has it paid off for him. We traded down and still got Larry Johnson while Detroit allowed us to have Derrick Johnson gift wrapped to us with their stupid pick of yet another WR in the top 10.

[ottawa_chiefs_fan]

Come on! The research ALONE for this article must have taken hours! - since Gretz would have had to find a book with this information in it, find his library card and check it out.

[StcChief]

Boy the stats are just amazing and you can look all your source material up on NFL.COM

[shaneo69]

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

Is this a "pre"excuse that they are going to muck up this years draft? Are they saying it's a crap shoot or something? This is both dumb and dumber imo.

This is just how they think as an organization. They've looked at free agency and decided there's a little too much risk, and they've been burned in the past, so they're just gonna stay out of it now to be on the safe side.

A top-5 pick is also pretty risky, so based on this article, I wouldn't be surprised if they traded down just so there's no chance to screw up a top-5 pick.

[Chief Wiggum]

Originally Posted by whoman69

The Chiefs have quite often traded themselves out of the first round only to reach for a player that we need immediate help on with our top pick in later rounds. Pederson has tended to take high risks in the draft and very rarely has it paid off for him.

It is interesting that you mention this. I was doing some research on the Chiefs historical drafting, and over the last 8 years, I think we've only had 6 first rounders, 7 second rounders, and 8 first rounders. That's 3 first day picks we have given up and I think that is part of the reason the Chiefs have drafted poorly. (Conversely, we've back-loaded a bunch of picks in the 5th-7th rounds. I also found interesting that the majority of our first day picks have gone to the Defensive side of the ball, with most of our second day picks going to offense. Granted, we had the offense established there for a few years, but I don't think it's a coincidence that our defense is the strength of our team right now and our offense is the weak link.

I like the idea of building through the draft, but I'm a firm believer that we need to draft on who is the best player available and not what area we need to fill the most. I just hope that the best players available are OLmen...

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Chief Wiggum

It is interesting that you mention this. I was doing some research on the Chiefs historical drafting, and over the last 8 years, I think we've only had 6 first rounders, 7 second rounders, and 8 first rounders. That's 3 first day picks we have given up and I think that is part of the reason the Chiefs have drafted poorly. (Conversely, we've back-loaded a bunch of picks in the 5th-7th rounds. I also found interesting that the majority of our first day picks have gone to the Defensive side of the ball, with most of our second day picks going to offense. Granted, we had the offense established there for a few years, but I don't think it's a coincidence that our defense is the strength of our team right now and our offense is the weak link.

I like the idea of building through the draft, but I'm a firm believer that we need to draft on who is the best player available and not what area we need to fill the most. I just hope that the best players available are OLmen...

3 of those first day picks that we've given up have gone to the offensive side of the ball, if I remember correctly.

1 for Trent Green and two for Dick.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by Chief Wiggum

It is interesting that you mention this. I was doing some research on the Chiefs historical drafting, and over the last 8 years, I think we've only had 6 first rounders, 7 second rounders, and 8 first rounders. That's 3 first day picks we have given up and I think that is part of the reason the Chiefs have drafted poorly. (Conversely, we've back-loaded a bunch of picks in the 5th-7th rounds. I also found interesting that the majority of our first day picks have gone to the Defensive side of the ball, with most of our second day picks going to offense. Granted, we had the offense established there for a few years, but I don't think it's a coincidence that our defense is the strength of our team right now and our offense is the weak link.

I like the idea of building through the draft, but I'm a firm believer that we need to draft on who is the best player available and not what area we need to fill the most. I just hope that the best players available are OLmen...

It would be ok if we drafted better in the 2nd round.

For the most part, since Carl has been here, our 2nd rounders have sucked.

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Oh great an article about how "hey we might pick top 5 but that doesn't guarantee this guy won't suck"

Our front office they are brilliant.

Heh setting the tone for failure permeates throughout this franchise Damn I'm tired of being doom and gloom. ****in FO is horrible no other way to describe it