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#241 | |
Would an idiot do that?
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Arizona
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Quote:
Gotcha. |
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#242 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Waiting to be voted off
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Sorry if a repost, but good read if you are a Mizzou fan... they are setting us up for one of our heartbreak seasons we love so much.
http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/616 ![]() Tiger fans can wear their stripes with pride this season. Meteoric Mizzou: THIS is why you pay attention to statistics In two weeks, Missouri has gone from the in college basketball's most underrated team to the team that suddenly has everybody's attention. In the polls released Monday, the Tigers are ranked 10th and 11th, respectively. Two weeks ago, Mizzou was unranked. That's an ascension that Charles Foster Kane would be proud of. However, if you paid any attention to the numbers, you already knew this was going to happen. Missouri has been ranked in the top 20 of Ken Pomeroy's ratings for pretty much the entire season. Ken's numbers loved the Tigers through the Illinois debacle, through the free-throw meltdown against Xavier, the offensive drought against Nebraska and the best-shooting night of the season by Kansas State. The numbers were why I knew that the loss in Manhattan was more meaningful for the Wildcats than the Tigers. The numbers were why I knew over two months ago that the Tigers were a tournament-caliber team. Pomeroy ranks teams based on adjusted winning percentages. He measures the points per possession scored and allowed for each opponent, adjusts each for quality of component, then calculates the new winning percentage based on those efficiency margins. The adjusted winning percentage is called the Pythagorean percentage. This percentage can be taken literally, meaning that Missouri's .9585 Pythagorean score means that the true quality of the Tigers this season is that of a team which should win 95.85% of its games against average D1 teams at neutral sites. Why do I hype Pomeroy's ratings so much? Because they work. I pen that justification for tempo-free basketball statistics as justification for a little bit of analysis. Now that the perception (the polls) has caught up to the reality (power rankings), what does the latter suggest about the Tigers' eventual March destiny? Let's assume that Missouri maintains its current Pythagorean rating, which certainly is no given being that two of the its final five regular-season games are in Lawrence and at home against Oklahoma. Pomeroy has Pythagoran ratings going back three seasons prior to this one, so it gives us an OK sample of how teams that play at this level fare in the NCAA tournament. However, it won't be a large enough sample to be conclusive.
Again, this is a small sample size, Tiger fans, so don't go thumping your chests just yet about the imminent trip to the Final Four. However, it's pretty obvious that Mizzou is entering rarified air. Of the 28 teams the last three years that have played at this level, 21 (75%) reached the Sweet 16 and 17 (61%) made the Elite 8. The group also accounts for the last three NCAA champions, five of the six teams to reach the championship game and 10 of the 12 Final Four squads. The NCAA tournament is still a month or so away, but, for Tiger fans, there may really be a reason to go mad this March. |
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#243 |
a haw haw haw
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: MIZZOU
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C'mon if you didn't get the point I was trying to make you're just trying to keep shit stirred up
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#244 |
Don't Tease Me
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: KS
Casino cash: $11047037
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someone is obsessed with "poles"
heh
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#245 |
Champs!
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $3808476
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Well obviously she must want to hold somebody's pole, just not admitting to who it is she is wanting to hold.
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#246 |
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: floating in a tin can
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I don't see what the rumpus is about.
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#247 |
Would an idiot do that?
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Arizona
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#248 |
You think you can get by this?
Join Date: Dec 2004
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#249 |
You think you can get by this?
Join Date: Dec 2004
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#250 |
Did you hear what I said?
Join Date: Aug 2000
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#251 |
Would an idiot do that?
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Arizona
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#252 |
You think you can get by this?
Join Date: Dec 2004
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#253 |
You think you can get by this?
Join Date: Dec 2004
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#254 |
You think you can get by this?
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Springfield, MO
Casino cash: $-1180000
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Okay. I'm done with the pole references. You guys can have your thread back.
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#255 |
UNSTOPPABLE
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $9895185
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The only question is when will we see the epic meltdown from Mizzou.
j/k
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