Bill Belichick on Stacking the Draft Board (especially Horizontal Stacking) - Page 3

Amnorix · 04-21-2009, 12:51 PM

Thought this would be of general interest, since no doubt Pioli and crew are doing it the same way:

A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them. This suggests that more players have the same grades than many of us assume -- and that the "ties" must be broken by other factors. I would guess that need, value of the position, depth of the draft at that position, interest of other teams, and perhaps alternative ways to get comparable players are all factors. Can you offer some insight on this?
John

A: Solid topic here, John, and you had me scrambling back to 2003 to read some of Bill Belichick's comments on horizontal stacks. Here is what I took from Belichick's comments that year: The vertical stack is by position -- quarterbacks, tight ends, running backs etc. The horizontal stack helps you assess value -- comparing, for example, the cornerback rated at the same spot as the guard. It is possible I might not be interpreting this the right way, so here are Belichick's comments from 2003:

"When you stack your board, you're going to look vertically ... The way we do it, we look vertically by positions. Here's all the quarterbacks, here's all the tight ends, here's all the running backs. Horizontally across the board, you try to get some kind of value of ... This cornerback and this guard, and this linebacker and this tight end would have about the same value. They'd come in and they'd be role players for us. They're never going to be starters. Or whatever their value is. And so when you're sitting there trying to make your picks, you may be looking at three or four guys and they're all kind of about the same. You're five or six picks away and whichever one of these guys we end up with, we take them in this order, but we could live with any of them. But sometimes you're sitting there and you have three or four guys in that category and you have one guy that you feel like is sitting up there and is significantly higher and you're not saying, 'Well, he's just going to come in and be a role player and he'll never be a starter.' You're saying, 'Well, this guy could come in and he's going to be a starter for us, now it might take a year and he has a little developing he has to do, but we feel like this guy can come in and he can be a starter for us.' That's when you sit there and think about, 'Alright, do we want to try to jump up and get this guy if we don't think he's going to fall to us and give up whatever we have to give up to move up and get him, or do we want to stay here and hope he's on the board -- he probably won't be -- and we'll end up with one of these other guys.' It just comes down to draft management. Sometimes you try to trade up and get him and nobody wants to trade with you and you sit there and let it come to you. But that's basically the process. I don't think you sit there and say, 'Well, we're only going to trade up if we think the guy's going to be an impact player or we're only going to trade up if the guy's going to be a starter or whatever.' We've traded up in the fourth round, fifth round, down in the fifth round, sixth round, so I don't think when you're picking in the sixth round you're really thinking, 'This guy's going to be an impact player.' We would have picked him in the second."

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal..._09/?page=full

htismaqe · 04-22-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Dude its just me and you on the Medlock thing. Of course if I remember back to then we were the only ones who pimped him then.

There's more, like DaKCManAP.

Chiefnj2 · 04-22-2009, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

No, he wasn't.

Medlock led the entire NCAA in kicking accuracy, especially from long range.

Crosby had alot of long ATTEMPTS, but he was horribly streaky.

One guy kicked in nice weather and the other in Colorado.

KCrockaholic · 04-22-2009, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They weren't wrong about his talent. He has a mental illness that nobody knew about at the time.

Thats a terrible excuse. Trust me NFL personel people would know if Medlock was mental sick. They were wrong because he cant produce in the NFL. So why did he do so well in NCAA but then the second he gets drafted sucks in the NFL. Where was his illness when he was in college.

milkman · 04-22-2009, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

Crosby was by far the better kicker. I was pissed when we passed him to take Medlock. The teams that thought medlock was good where all stupid. Who seriously thought a black kicker was worth being drafted? Thats like a white cornerback being taking in the 2nd round.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

Thats nice. It just proves they where wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

Thats a terrible excuse. Trust me NFL personel people would know if Medlock was mental sick. They where wrong because he cant produce in the NFL. So why did he do so well in NCAA but then the second he gets drafted sucks in the NFL. Where was his illness when he was in college.

How does a man get through life, hell how does he get out of first grade, if he doesn't know the difference between "where" and "were"?

KCrockaholic · 04-22-2009, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

How does a man get through life, hell how does he get out of first grade, if he doesn't know the difference between "where" and "were"?

I know. I dont usually pay attention when I type it. Its a habit.

Ill fix them just for you.

htismaqe · 04-22-2009, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

Thats a terrible excuse. Trust me NFL personel people would know if Medlock was mental sick. They were wrong because he cant produce in the NFL. So why did he do so well in NCAA but then the second he gets drafted sucks in the NFL. Where was his illness when he was in college.

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

A couple of people here have inside sources - Medlock is clinically sick.

Mental illnesses can often have acute onsets. He IS sick and nobody knew about it before the draft. It's a fact.

KCrockaholic · 04-22-2009, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

A couple of people here have inside sources - Medlock is clinically sick.

Mental illnesses can often have acute onsets. He IS sick and nobody knew about it before the draft. It's a fact.

That still doesnt explain how he went from great in college to sucky in his short stint in the NFL. I think your just trying to find any excuse possible to show that you werent "wrong". Have you ever been wrong before in your life? If so where you able to admit it?

htismaqe · 04-22-2009, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

That still doesnt explain how he went from great in college to sucky in his short stint in the NFL. I think your just trying to find any excuse possible to show that you werent "wrong". Have you ever been wrong before in your life? If so where you able to admit it?

He went from great in college to sucky in a short stint because the pressure of the NFL (or something similar) triggered his disease.

It doesn't have anything to do with me being wrong - I'm wrong ALOT and I will readily admit it when I am.

I have to talked to people on this board that know Medlock and are very familiar with his situation - he is SICK and he will likely never play football, or do anything that requires him to be in the public eye, ever again.

And again, none of this HINDISIGHT changes the fact that, heading into that draft, Medlock was the general consensus #1 kicker available.

htismaqe · 04-22-2009, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

That still doesnt explain how he went from great in college to sucky in his short stint in the NFL. I think your just trying to find any excuse possible to show that you werent "wrong". Have you ever been wrong before in your life? If so where you able to admit it?

Let me put it this way:

Medlock was considered by most to be the "sure thing" while Crosby was considered to be the "boom or bust" prospect.

If nothing else, the way it turned out is yet another example of why playing it safe hardly ever pays off, and alot of times actually turns out the opposite of the way you expected.

I was obviously guilty of thinking "safe" myself and therefore, this an admission that I was wrong.

rad · 04-22-2009, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Let me put it this way:

Medlock was considered by most to be the "sure thing" while Crosby was considered to be the "boom or bust" prospect.

If nothing else, the way it turned out is yet another example of why playing it safe hardly ever pays off, and alot of times actually turns out the opposite of the way you expected.

I was obviously guilty of thinking "safe" myself and therefore, this an admission that I was wrong.

You and I went back and forth over the Medlock thing in the Draft day thread right after he was drafted.......I thought it was a bad pick and you argued that a solid kicker is better than a ST LB or whatever......

Dayze · 04-22-2009, 07:15 PM

[QUOTE=Amnorix;5690776]

A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them.
John

QUOTE]

I seriously dobut Carl ever thought of that. I'm not even kidding.

htismaqe · 04-22-2009, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rad

You and I went back and forth over the Medlock thing in the Draft day thread right after he was drafted.......I thought it was a bad pick and you argued that a solid kicker is better than a ST LB or whatever......

And they are. A solid kicker scores points. A ST LB doesn't.

But of course, it doesn't matter if the kicker isn't SOLID, and Medlock just flat-out sucked.

SBK · 04-22-2009, 08:12 PM

How did I miss the discussions long ago about Medlock being sick in the head? What's he, bipolar or something, or does he have the thing Ricky Williams did?

Feel bad for him now.

**the Talking Can** · 04-23-2009, 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SBK

How did I miss the discussions long ago about Medlock being sick in the head? What's he, bipolar or something, or does he have the thing Ricky Williams did?

Feel bad for him now.

turned out he was reeruned.....he showed up for a draft workout in a short bus, but no one noticed because he got dropped off on the corner and walked to the stadium.....

KCrockaholic · 04-23-2009, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

turned out he was reeruned.....he showed up for a draft workout in a short bus, but no one noticed because he got dropped off on the corner and walked to the stadium.....

only problem is, I can picture that.

04-21-2009, 12:51 PM
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Bill Belichick on Stacking the Draft Board (especially Horizontal Stacking) Thought this would be of general interest, since no doubt Pioli and crew are doing it the same way: A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them. This suggests that more players have the same grades than many of us assume -- and that the "ties" must be broken by other factors. I would guess that need, value of the position, depth of the draft at that position, interest of other teams, and perhaps alternative ways to get comparable players are all factors. Can you offer some insight on this? John A: Solid topic here, John, and you had me scrambling back to 2003 to read some of Bill Belichick's comments on horizontal stacks. Here is what I took from Belichick's comments that year: The vertical stack is by position -- quarterbacks, tight ends, running backs etc. The horizontal stack helps you assess value -- comparing, for example, the cornerback rated at the same spot as the guard. It is possible I might not be interpreting this the right way, so here are Belichick's comments from 2003: "When you stack your board, you're going to look vertically ... The way we do it, we look vertically by positions. Here's all the quarterbacks, here's all the tight ends, here's all the running backs. Horizontally across the board, you try to get some kind of value of ... This cornerback and this guard, and this linebacker and this tight end would have about the same value. They'd come in and they'd be role players for us. They're never going to be starters. Or whatever their value is. And so when you're sitting there trying to make your picks, you may be looking at three or four guys and they're all kind of about the same. You're five or six picks away and whichever one of these guys we end up with, we take them in this order, but we could live with any of them. But sometimes you're sitting there and you have three or four guys in that category and you have one guy that you feel like is sitting up there and is significantly higher and you're not saying, 'Well, he's just going to come in and be a role player and he'll never be a starter.' You're saying, 'Well, this guy could come in and he's going to be a starter for us, now it might take a year and he has a little developing he has to do, but we feel like this guy can come in and he can be a starter for us.' That's when you sit there and think about, 'Alright, do we want to try to jump up and get this guy if we don't think he's going to fall to us and give up whatever we have to give up to move up and get him, or do we want to stay here and hope he's on the board -- he probably won't be -- and we'll end up with one of these other guys.' It just comes down to draft management. Sometimes you try to trade up and get him and nobody wants to trade with you and you sit there and let it come to you. But that's basically the process. I don't think you sit there and say, 'Well, we're only going to trade up if we think the guy's going to be an impact player or we're only going to trade up if the guy's going to be a starter or whatever.' We've traded up in the fourth round, fifth round, down in the fifth round, sixth round, so I don't think when you're picking in the sixth round you're really thinking, 'This guy's going to be an impact player.' We would have picked him in the second." http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal..._09/?page=full
Posts: 43,125

04-22-2009, 07:15 PM	#41
Dayze Resident Glue Sniffer Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $1859358	[QUOTE=Amnorix;5690776] A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them. John QUOTE] I seriously dobut Carl ever thought of that. I'm not even kidding. __________________ Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial. RIP & Godspeed: Saccoppo Lonewolf Ed Fire Me Boy
Posts: 37,459

04-22-2009, 08:12 PM	#43
SBK Curry is the pick??? Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia Casino cash: $10004900	How did I miss the discussions long ago about Medlock being sick in the head? What's he, bipolar or something, or does he have the thing Ricky Williams did? Feel bad for him now.
Posts: 8,153