Where would you draft a K that could do this?? - Page 4

SBK · 04-22-2009, 08:14 PM

Talking about Medlock got me thinking about a discussion I once had. Let's say there's a K available who will kick touchbacks 65% of the time, and will hit 75% accuracy from 65 yards.

Where does a prospect like that rate for you?

**Rain Man** · 04-23-2009, 11:48 AM

What's a normal touchback percentage?

Amnorix · 04-23-2009, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

What's a normal touchback percentage?

Just taking one at random -- Ghost has a mighty leg, but is hampered by New England weather half the time (and/or Buffalo and Jets) if the weather is bad.

His TB% is 15%.

To be honest, I think the 65% TB gets you a first round pick right htere. Maybe 2nd, but possibly 1st. That is a HELL of a lot of field position advantage.

Amnorix · 04-23-2009, 11:56 AM

Christ. I tried to look up a dome guy and the first I thought of was Mike Vanderjagt. He only had 11 TBs in his 9 year career, out of 342 kickoffs. A whopping 3%.

Amnorix · 04-23-2009, 11:57 AM

Wow. Ghost is better than I thought.

Jason Elam -- strong leg in the thin air of Mile High -- 10% TB percentage. 76 out of 757 career kickoffs.

htismaqe · 04-23-2009, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

eh....maybe. Depends on alot of variables. Is the guy a 0% FG chance from 66 yards out, like eveyr other NFL kicker, ro does it step down from 75%. If the guy is a 60% chance from 70 yards out and 50 from 75 yards, etc., then you're probably right.

Otherwise, it will affect the game quite alot, but you've got the swing of what happens to the other team's offense on the 25% of misses. How often does missing from the 45 result in a TD?

But yes, it's clearly a first round kicker. Heck, just have 65% touchback ability is probably good for at least third round right there, maybe 2nd.

I'm just really sick of hearing about Curry.

He's the most-hyped player here since Mike Peterson. And look how Peterson turned out. Solid, UNSPECTACULAR player.

**Rain Man** · 04-23-2009, 12:10 PM

Wow, I would've guessed 30 percent or even higher was average. I had no idea it was that low.

bdeg · 04-23-2009, 12:29 PM

Amnorix, I think your assumption that because he was a 75% kicker he must be in a dome is missing the point. I think the proposition is that under all circumstances he faced in college he made 75% of many 65yd kicks. I think, based on the fact that you have to have a certain accuracy to make kicks from that far with that consistency, that you have to assume he could make 90-95% of kicks under 50.

Does that change your opinion at all?

As for the field position conundrum, I thought about it, and yes there are some times when it'd be better to punt, but just to have the FG option is huge at the end of a half or a close game. You wouldn't always want to kick the 65 yarder, but to be able to make the 55 yarder(from the 38 I believe) with 85-90% accuracy would be huge.

Amnorix · 04-23-2009, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Wow, I would've guessed 30 percent or even higher was average. I had no idea it was that low.

Well, I certainly wouldn't have thought 1/3rd. When we had Vinatieri I especially noticed that he really had very few TBs, even for all his greatness at FGs.

Just watch the average NFL game and you definitely don't see one out of every three kickoffs being a TB.

Amnorix · 04-23-2009, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdeg

Amnorix, I think your assumption that because he was a 75% kicker he must be in a dome is missing the point. I think the proposition is that under all circumstances he faced in college he made 75% of many 65yd kicks. I think, based on the fact that you have to have a certain accuracy to make kicks from that far with that consistency, that you have to assume he could make 90-95% of kicks under 50.

Does that change your opinion at all?

As for the field position conundrum, I thought about it, and yes there are some times when it'd be better to punt, but just to have the FG option is huge at the end of a half or a close game. You wouldn't always want to kick the 65 yarder, but to be able to make the 55 yarder(from the 38 I believe) with 85-90% accuracy would be huge.

If you're saying that 65 yards is to this guy like 40 yards is to every other guy, then he may well be a #1 overall pick.

SBK · 04-23-2009, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

If you're saying that 65 yards is to this guy like 40 yards is to every other guy, then he may well be a #1 overall pick.

That's what I didn't communicate properly with the OP.

KCrockaholic · 04-23-2009, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

eh....maybe. Depends on alot of variables. Is the guy a 0% FG chance from 66 yards out, like eveyr other NFL kicker, ro does it step down from 75%. If the guy is a 60% chance from 70 yards out and 50 from 75 yards, etc., then you're probably right.

Otherwise, it will affect the game quite alot, but you've got the swing of what happens to the other team's offense on the 25% of misses. How often does missing from the 45 result in a TD?

But yes, it's clearly a first round kicker. Heck, just have 65% touchback ability is probably good for at least third round right there, maybe 2nd.

This is actually a very good point. If the kicker can make a 75 yard FG 50% of the time, and 70 yards 60%, it changes the whole thing. I would then, think about drafting that kicker in the 1st round.

**Dave Lane** · 04-23-2009, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

This is actually a very good point. If the kicker can make a 75 yard FG 50% of the time, and 70 yards 60%, it changes the whole thing. I would then, think about drafting that kicker in the 1st round.

I'd think about 2 1st rounders to get him and a definite #1 overall. This guy would completely change the game for any team.

04-22-2009, 08:14 PM
SBK Curry is the pick??? Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia Casino cash: $10004900	Where would you draft a K that could do this?? Talking about Medlock got me thinking about a discussion I once had. Let's say there's a K available who will kick touchbacks 65% of the time, and will hit 75% accuracy from 65 yards. Where does a prospect like that rate for you?
Posts: 8,153

04-23-2009, 11:48 AM	#46
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-562449 VARSITY	What's a normal touchback percentage? __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,362

04-23-2009, 11:56 AM	#48
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Christ. I tried to look up a dome guy and the first I thought of was Mike Vanderjagt. He only had 11 TBs in his 9 year career, out of 342 kickoffs. A whopping 3%.
Posts: 43,125

04-23-2009, 11:57 AM	#49
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Wow. Ghost is better than I thought. Jason Elam -- strong leg in the thin air of Mile High -- 10% TB percentage. 76 out of 757 career kickoffs.
Posts: 43,125

04-23-2009, 12:10 PM	#51
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-562449 VARSITY	Wow, I would've guessed 30 percent or even higher was average. I had no idea it was that low. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,362

04-23-2009, 12:29 PM	#52
bdeg Veteran Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: iowa Casino cash: $10004900	Amnorix, I think your assumption that because he was a 75% kicker he must be in a dome is missing the point. I think the proposition is that under all circumstances he faced in college he made 75% of many 65yd kicks. I think, based on the fact that you have to have a certain accuracy to make kicks from that far with that consistency, that you have to assume he could make 90-95% of kicks under 50. Does that change your opinion at all? As for the field position conundrum, I thought about it, and yes there are some times when it'd be better to punt, but just to have the FG option is huge at the end of a half or a close game. You wouldn't always want to kick the 65 yarder, but to be able to make the 55 yarder(from the 38 I believe) with 85-90% accuracy would be huge.
Posts: 2,987