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11-04-2010, 01:32 PM | |
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Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com
I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC
Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code:
AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code:
Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% |
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11-04-2010, 01:33 PM | #2 | ||
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Stating the obvious.
How's our balls taste AFCW?...
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11-04-2010, 01:35 PM | #3 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.
EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have. |
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11-04-2010, 01:40 PM | #4 | |
Bolly 'wood'
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So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?
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11-04-2010, 01:41 PM | #5 | ||
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Yeah, douche, that's exactly what it means...
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11-04-2010, 01:41 PM | #6 |
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The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).
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11-04-2010, 01:42 PM | #7 | ||
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Will they the whole thing?...
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11-04-2010, 01:44 PM | #8 |
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Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.
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11-04-2010, 01:45 PM | #9 | |||
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Quote:
Tomato, tomatoe...
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11-04-2010, 01:46 PM | #10 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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11-04-2010, 01:47 PM | #11 |
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11-04-2010, 01:47 PM | #12 |
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Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium.
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11-04-2010, 01:50 PM | #13 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.
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11-04-2010, 01:51 PM | #14 |
Nomadical Transient in Chief
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This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.
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11-04-2010, 01:52 PM | #15 | |
Bolly 'wood'
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I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...
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