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Old 12-12-2010, 02:10 AM  
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Advanced NFL Stats commentary on the Jamaal Charles extension
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...l-charles.html

I need a new post to drop the semi-nude picture of Tom Brady down off the front page, so I thought I'd chime in on the Jamaal Charles re-signing. The Chiefs inked (if you're a sportswriter you're supposed to say 'inked' ...or sometimes 'locked-up' when it's a re-signing) the RB to a 5-year deal with $13 million guaranteed. Is Charles really a top back worth top money?

Yes, he is. (You're supposed to make readers wait to the end of the article for a wishy-washy non-answer, but I'll cut to the chase.) Charles' numbers are great, and the seem to be getting better each year. Currently in his 3rd year, Charles is averaging 5.8 YPC for his career and 6.0 YPC for 2010. (4.3 YPC is average for RBs.) How good is 5.8 YPC? It's better than any 3-year span or any single year for LaDanian Tominson, Marshall Faulk, or even Erik Dickerson (not to be confused with the Bruce Dickinson, who could easily run for 5.8 YPC if he wanted.)

Are Charles' huge YPC numbers inflated by a handful of lucky long runs? Not really. Charles' career Success Rate (SR) is 45.1%, and in 2010 it's second in the league at 50.7%. He's succeeding behind an undistinguished KC offensive line. Running behind the same line in 2009, Larry Johnson's posted a 26.3% SR compared to Charles' 43.1%. This season, Thomas Jones had a 38.3% SR compared to Charles' 50.7%. And run SR is the stat most critical to a team's fortunes.

One possible reason for his high per-carry stats is that Charles is used relatively sparingly. He averages under 10 carries per game for his career, and 13 carries per game this season.

In his 43-game career (full career advanced stats), Charles posts a net 0.95 WPA and 44.0 EPA, which compares favorably to Adrian Peterson's 0.49 WPA and 22.9 EPA. Here is a career comparison (regular season only):

Code:
Stat	Charles	Peterson
G	43	58
WPA	0.95	0.49
EPA	44.0	22.9
WPA/G	0.02	0.01
EPA/P	0.08	0.02
SR(%)	45.1	41.3
Att	417	1149
Yds	2437	5613
YPC	5.8	4.9
RushTD	10	51
Rec	97	116
RecYds	887	1161
RecTD	3	2
Fum	5	19
Peterson is certainly the better fantasy value, leading in TDs and total yards per season, but Charles may be the RB with the better real-world value.
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:43 AM   #2
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JC is averaging 6.2 this year and has a career average of 6.0

Not sure how their stats a this site differ from those.
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:49 AM   #3
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How good is 5.8 YPC? It's better than any 3-year span or any single year for LaDanian Tominson, Marshall Faulk, or even Erik Dickerson
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:51 AM   #4
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We need to draft a big bruiser for short-yardage and goal line work.

I don't know why they haven't given Battle more chances in these situations.
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:52 AM   #5
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that shits ****ed up



...

but seriously, how does a site called Advanced NFL stats get simply calculated per carry averages wrong?

I dont get it, I must be missing something.
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:53 AM   #6
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That's odd.
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Old 12-12-2010, 02:57 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gif Horse View Post
We need to draft a big bruiser for short-yardage and goal line work.

I don't know why they haven't given Battle more chances in these situations.
This.

Thomas Jones is an every down back. He's not a power goal line/short yardage back
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I would read an entire blog of SNR breaking down athletes' musical capabilities like draft scouting reports.
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:07 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gif Horse View Post
We need to draft a big bruiser for short-yardage and goal line work.

I don't know why they haven't given Battle more chances in these situations.
You mean like Shaun Smith ?
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:12 AM   #9
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our problem running up the middle isnt the RB, its the fact our center is probably hovering around 275 pounds by now and is a good pass protector and is mobile, but isnt a straight line power blocker for short yardage. That added to Lilja which is probably around 290-295 and we are outweighed on the right middle by a good amount when we try to run a power running game.

It is what it is, I wouldn't trade out either player as their strengths far outweigh those minuscule weaknesses.
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:20 AM   #10
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our problem running up the middle isnt the RB, its the fact our center is probably hovering around 275 pounds by now and is a good pass protector and is mobile, but isnt a straight line power blocker for short yardage. That added to Lilja which is probably around 290-295 and we are outweighed on the right middle by a good amount when we try to run a power running game.

It is what it is, I wouldn't trade out either player as their strengths far outweigh those minuscule weaknesses.
Did you watch the game the last two weeks?

Charles had two handoffs by the goal line and on both plays he had a good head of steam and got stood straight up because he's 199 lbs soaking wet.

Our line is at a disadvantage for sure but if we had a guy who could fall forward it would be a big deal.
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:23 AM   #11
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You mean Like Shaun Smith ?
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:31 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gif Horse View Post
Did you watch the game the last two weeks?

Charles had two handoffs by the goal line and on both plays he had a good head of steam and got stood straight up because he's 199 lbs soaking wet.

Our line is at a disadvantage for sure but if we had a guy who could fall forward it would be a big deal.
I started watching, but I turned em off at halftime...haha

Jones had 14 TDs last year behind a more physical line.

Our line is built to pass protect and run to the perimeter, not so much straight forward.

When Jones and Battle arent scoring touchdowns on the goaline, something else is the problem.
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Old 12-12-2010, 03:53 AM   #13
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You mean like Shaun Smith ?
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Old 12-12-2010, 05:21 AM   #14
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