My official endorsement for the 21st overall pick. - Page 2

Direckshun · 03-02-2011, 02:43 PM

Barring any bombshells, we pretty much know what we have in most of these prospects. There will be countless clues as to who and what the teams and GMs like in the prospect field over the next two months, but ultimately, the players have spoken.

Some Pro Days are going to fiddle with the rankings, but by and large we aren’t going to be terribly surprised by anybody.

My selection for the Chiefs at #21 is based on the prospect’s talent, the nature of his position, our team, and this draft. My great enthusiasm for this player is matched by my certainty that this player will not be selected by the Chiefs.

With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, the Chiefs should select OLB Justin Houston, Georgia.

Talent

Justin Houston is a bolt off the edge. Before he gained his recent weight (in which it did not look like fat…), he showed great anticipation of the snapcount and was pure lightning off the edge. That speed, and that anticipation, are nigh impossible to actually “teach” a player. The versatility he will need to develop will come as he has added strength and 35” arms with which he can master any number of techniques. In other words, he comes pretty well prepared to blow stuff up in opposing backfields, while still having massive room for growth.

Houston is also what Herm Edwards would call a “football player” in the vein of Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey: the man plays with tons of fire and willingly throws his body into blocks for teammates and plays the run passionately. This is no Dwight Freeney – this guy gets off on running backs just as much as quarterbacks. And with his added bulk, that will only add to his ability in that department.

Houston has the look of somebody who can put up double-digit sacks in the NFL. I don’t claim he is the best prospect – I’m iffy on Bowers but I’d take Ryan Kerrigan in a heartbeat – but with the decent-enough depth at pass-rusher in the first round, it’s likely that Houston can fall to us.

His biggest setback at this point is his added bulk. The 270 he weighs now looks a lot more like a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB body-type. But even with the bulk, his speed is still very solid (4.6 at the Combine, he plays like a 4.5 on the field…). And he features a vertical that most receivers in this class lack. I think this translates into a player who can drop into coverage.

The OLB Position

Passrushing is the toughest job to do on the football field other than playing the QB position. It requires a specific set of physical skills and a never-say-die attitude that will be challenged hundreds of times throughout a season. Your strongest muscle must be your heart.

Because of the difficulty of the position, it takes passrushers about as long as it takes quarterbacks to adjust to the league and play up to their potential. If you’re going to be in a rebuilding process, which despite their 2010 record, the Chiefs definitely are, you should go early and often with passrushers in the draft in the hopes of having a ferocious passrush in a couple years when you’re ready to contend for a title.

Passrushers are also a lot like quarterbacks in that it is extremely rare that your true sack artists come from any round other than the 1st. The other positions Chiefs fans are debating this offseason for the first pick—reciever, nose tackle, offensive line—can be had in later rounds with less of a drop off. But passrushers in the first are the most likely to thrive, and it’s not even close.

The Kansas City Chiefs

I believe in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is now playing like a franchise defensive lineman, and Jackson came on incredibly strong in the last four games of the season – as well as the first game of the season. In other words, games in which he was playing close to 100% healthy. If this guy stays healthy, I bet he’s a gamer.

These are two indispensible puzzle pieces for this team given the high picks we invested in them. But neither one is a great passrusher. Neither one of them is much of a passrusher, matter of fact. Our defensive line only features one good passrusher (Wallace Gilberry) and another guy (Ron Edwards) who is guaranteed three sacks a season. (Shaun Smith, meanwhile, is the worst passrusher we have on the DL.)

Under normal circumstances, we could just upgrade the ends with passrushers, but the Chiefs are in an extraordinary circumstance with what we’ve invested in ours. Dorsey and Jackson need to not only be our defensive ends going forward, they need to play the overwhelming majority of snaps. Upgrading the defensive end position basically negates the value we spent on those players.

So a passrush will need to be manufactured in other positions – namely, the position that’s actually designed to be a pure passrusher in a 3-4: the outside linebacker. Tamba Hali is a player that offenses have to single-mindedly focus on to keep their backfields clean. With Justin Houston developing, offenses would have to go more conservative to ward off both edges.

A great passrusher would make everything on this defense better. The secondary would be under less pressure. Other players on the DL (namely Dorsey) would face less focus, and would be freer to operate which in turn would almost completely free up Derrick Johnson and our ILBs. In short, as important as a nose tackle is, one more great passrusher would vault this defense deep into the Top 10.

The 2011 Draft

Like all drafts, this is a draft that has more than a few quality receiver prospects in the early-to-mid rounds. Phil Taylor may be a reach at #21 anyway, so better to get some value later on for the nose. And I am under the belief that our current offensive line (Albert, Waters, Wiegmann assuming he returns, Lilja, and Richardson with Asamoah, Niswanger, and O’Callaghan in the wings) could use some depth, but can hold together for another season while we invest in other positions that are more difficult to develop. It’s hard to complain about an OL that paved the way for two 900+ yard rushers.

milkman · 03-02-2011, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Urc Burry

So you would agree that Ayers would be the better pick?

I like Houston but I can't see his big ass in coverage.

And Studebaker is the Thiggy of LB's...The fans root for him, but in reality he is not that good

I didn't get to watch a lot of college ball this season, and I didn't see his combine workout either.

But what little I did see, I did like his ability to cover, and the speed he seemed to posess to get around the edge when he does rush the passer.

Titty Meat · 03-02-2011, 08:45 PM

If we're talking about a coverage linebacker Ayers might be the best guy then. Andy Studebaker ****ing sucks.

Direckshun · 03-02-2011, 08:57 PM

See maybe that's where I get all crazy.

Because I consider the ILBs to be the coverage backers.

This is so stupid. Like it's a bad thing for a team to have two Tamba Halis.

Titty Meat · 03-02-2011, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

See maybe that's where I get all crazy.

Because I consider the ILBs to be the coverage backers.

This is so stupid. Like it's a bad thing for a team to have two Tamba Halis.

I think the playoff game vs the Ravens showed just how bad our linebackers were in coverage.

milkman · 03-02-2011, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

See maybe that's where I get all crazy.

Because I consider the ILBs to be the coverage backers.

This is so stupid. Like it's a bad thing for a team to have two Tamba Halis.

No one is saying it's a bad thing to have two Halis.

I even said that is what I would want.

But that's not Crennel's system.

Direckshun · 03-02-2011, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billay

I think the playoff game vs the Ravens showed just how bad our linebackers were in coverage.

Yeah, the defense didn't lose us that game.

milkman · 03-02-2011, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Yeah, the defense didn't lose us that game.

Todd Heap abused the LBs over the middle in that game.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 03-02-2011, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Yeah, the defense didn't lose us that game.

It doesn't mean they weren't horrible in coverage.

Urc Burry · 03-02-2011, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Yeah, the defense didn't lose us that game.

No but we made Todd Heap look all pro

Direckshun · 03-02-2011, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Todd Heap abused the LBs over the middle in that game.

Over the middle, you say?

Shit. I mean I don't know much about football, but I could have sworn we had players in the middle of the field in that linebacker range?

Really, I'm not a coordinator or anything, but it would seem to me that the only time you should have an OLB play a ton of snaps in coverage is if your opponent is running 4 or 5 wide on a regular basis.

milkman · 03-02-2011, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Over the middle, you say?

Shit. I mean I don't know much about football, but I could have sworn we had players in the middle of the field in that linebacker range?

Really, I'm not a coordinator or anything, but it would seem to me that the only time you should have an OLB play a ton of snaps in coverage is if your opponent is running 4 or 5 wide on a regular basis.

You're not getting it.

I am not talking about what I would do on defense.

I am talking about the system that Crennel runs.

He uses all his LBs in coverage.

Saccopoo · 03-02-2011, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billay

If we're talking about a coverage linebacker Ayers might be the best guy then. Andy Studebaker ****ing sucks.

Herzlich has substantially better coverage skills than Ayers and has shown a much greater passion for the game itself. I watched a number of Boston College games this past season and Herzlich got better every single game. In their final bowl game against Nevada, the guy was all over the field and in on nearly every play. He ended the season with four interceptions.

He ran a bad 40 at the combine, but if you watched him in the rest of the drills, he was by far and away the most polished guy out there with the best footwork and instincts.

And Milk is correct and he's saying exactly what I was inferring from the start of this thread. The LOLB in a 3-4, and specifically Crennel's 3-4 defense, is dropping a lot in zone coverage and is asked to man cover the tight end a lot. You don't want two pure pass rushers in this defense.

Like I stated, Houston isn't a good choice for this defense because we've already got the same guy in Hali, who is coming into his prime and has been a force rushing the passer. He's a proven commodity and it would be redundant to bring in another guy just like him. Neither Hali or Houston are ideal LOLBs in this system.

Titty Meat · 03-03-2011, 01:52 AM

Heap tore the Chiefs up over the middle and the linebackers sucked in space against Rice.

I'm sorry but i'm not spending a first on Herzlich. This will likely come off as assholish but i'm not sure how much stock you can put into a guy who had cancer. I mean i'm sure the treatment had to have done a number on his body I question how long he'll be able to hold up.

Ayers would be an interesting pick but I think in this spot you go with the famous trade down option.

Direckshun · 03-03-2011, 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

You're not getting it.

I am not talking about what I would do on defense.

I am talking about the system that Crennel runs.

He uses all his LBs in coverage.

And I'm telling you the same thing I told DoucheMcCloud in the Lounge: you guys are all hung up on the purity of a system, you're forgetting the reality on the ground.

The Crennel system also gets a halfway decent passrush from its DEs. Which, despite the fact that we have spent Top 5s on two DEs, we don't have. Dorsey and Jackson are never going to have 7-8 sack seasons. We'll be lucky if either has a 3-sack season. And that's coming from a guy that believes in both players.

So we have to engineer those sacks from somewhere, or else trade/replace those two DEs.

So while I understand what you're saying, and agree that Ayers is definitely more of a Crennel SOLB prototype, we need the potential for double-digit sacks that Houston provides. Period.

Now, in my opening post, I said that I did not expect Pioli to pick Houston, mostly for the reason you specified.

Coogs · 03-03-2011, 11:14 AM

The Baltimore coverag problems by our defense were somewhat scheme related as well...

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...ht=merril+hoge

03-02-2011, 02:43 PM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2033447	My official endorsement for the 21st overall pick. Barring any bombshells, we pretty much know what we have in most of these prospects. There will be countless clues as to who and what the teams and GMs like in the prospect field over the next two months, but ultimately, the players have spoken. Some Pro Days are going to fiddle with the rankings, but by and large we aren’t going to be terribly surprised by anybody. My selection for the Chiefs at #21 is based on the prospect’s talent, the nature of his position, our team, and this draft. My great enthusiasm for this player is matched by my certainty that this player will not be selected by the Chiefs. With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, the Chiefs should select OLB Justin Houston, Georgia. Talent Justin Houston is a bolt off the edge. Before he gained his recent weight (in which it did not look like fat…), he showed great anticipation of the snapcount and was pure lightning off the edge. That speed, and that anticipation, are nigh impossible to actually “teach” a player. The versatility he will need to develop will come as he has added strength and 35” arms with which he can master any number of techniques. In other words, he comes pretty well prepared to blow stuff up in opposing backfields, while still having massive room for growth. Houston is also what Herm Edwards would call a “football player” in the vein of Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey: the man plays with tons of fire and willingly throws his body into blocks for teammates and plays the run passionately. This is no Dwight Freeney – this guy gets off on running backs just as much as quarterbacks. And with his added bulk, that will only add to his ability in that department. Houston has the look of somebody who can put up double-digit sacks in the NFL. I don’t claim he is the best prospect – I’m iffy on Bowers but I’d take Ryan Kerrigan in a heartbeat – but with the decent-enough depth at pass-rusher in the first round, it’s likely that Houston can fall to us. His biggest setback at this point is his added bulk. The 270 he weighs now looks a lot more like a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB body-type. But even with the bulk, his speed is still very solid (4.6 at the Combine, he plays like a 4.5 on the field…). And he features a vertical that most receivers in this class lack. I think this translates into a player who can drop into coverage. The OLB Position Passrushing is the toughest job to do on the football field other than playing the QB position. It requires a specific set of physical skills and a never-say-die attitude that will be challenged hundreds of times throughout a season. Your strongest muscle must be your heart. Because of the difficulty of the position, it takes passrushers about as long as it takes quarterbacks to adjust to the league and play up to their potential. If you’re going to be in a rebuilding process, which despite their 2010 record, the Chiefs definitely are, you should go early and often with passrushers in the draft in the hopes of having a ferocious passrush in a couple years when you’re ready to contend for a title. Passrushers are also a lot like quarterbacks in that it is extremely rare that your true sack artists come from any round other than the 1st. The other positions Chiefs fans are debating this offseason for the first pick—reciever, nose tackle, offensive line—can be had in later rounds with less of a drop off. But passrushers in the first are the most likely to thrive, and it’s not even close. The Kansas City Chiefs I believe in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is now playing like a franchise defensive lineman, and Jackson came on incredibly strong in the last four games of the season – as well as the first game of the season. In other words, games in which he was playing close to 100% healthy. If this guy stays healthy, I bet he’s a gamer. These are two indispensible puzzle pieces for this team given the high picks we invested in them. But neither one is a great passrusher. Neither one of them is much of a passrusher, matter of fact. Our defensive line only features one good passrusher (Wallace Gilberry) and another guy (Ron Edwards) who is guaranteed three sacks a season. (Shaun Smith, meanwhile, is the worst passrusher we have on the DL.) Under normal circumstances, we could just upgrade the ends with passrushers, but the Chiefs are in an extraordinary circumstance with what we’ve invested in ours. Dorsey and Jackson need to not only be our defensive ends going forward, they need to play the overwhelming majority of snaps. Upgrading the defensive end position basically negates the value we spent on those players. So a passrush will need to be manufactured in other positions – namely, the position that’s actually designed to be a pure passrusher in a 3-4: the outside linebacker. Tamba Hali is a player that offenses have to single-mindedly focus on to keep their backfields clean. With Justin Houston developing, offenses would have to go more conservative to ward off both edges. A great passrusher would make everything on this defense better. The secondary would be under less pressure. Other players on the DL (namely Dorsey) would face less focus, and would be freer to operate which in turn would almost completely free up Derrick Johnson and our ILBs. In short, as important as a nose tackle is, one more great passrusher would vault this defense deep into the Top 10. The 2011 Draft Like all drafts, this is a draft that has more than a few quality receiver prospects in the early-to-mid rounds. Phil Taylor may be a reach at #21 anyway, so better to get some value later on for the nose. And I am under the belief that our current offensive line (Albert, Waters, Wiegmann assuming he returns, Lilja, and Richardson with Asamoah, Niswanger, and O’Callaghan in the wings) could use some depth, but can hold together for another season while we invest in other positions that are more difficult to develop. It’s hard to complain about an OL that paved the way for two 900+ yard rushers.
Posts: 59,693

03-02-2011, 08:45 PM	#17
Titty Meat Inmem 2.0 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: My house Casino cash: $-1132442	If we're talking about a coverage linebacker Ayers might be the best guy then. Andy Studebaker ****ing sucks.
Posts: 78,122

03-02-2011, 08:57 PM	#18
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2033447	See maybe that's where I get all crazy. Because I consider the ILBs to be the coverage backers. This is so stupid. Like it's a bad thing for a team to have two Tamba Halis.
Posts: 59,693

03-03-2011, 01:52 AM	#28
Titty Meat Inmem 2.0 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: My house Casino cash: $-1132442	Heap tore the Chiefs up over the middle and the linebackers sucked in space against Rice. I'm sorry but i'm not spending a first on Herzlich. This will likely come off as assholish but i'm not sure how much stock you can put into a guy who had cancer. I mean i'm sure the treatment had to have done a number on his body I question how long he'll be able to hold up. Ayers would be an interesting pick but I think in this spot you go with the famous trade down option.
Posts: 78,122

03-03-2011, 11:14 AM	#30
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $-2215651	The Baltimore coverag problems by our defense were somewhat scheme related as well... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...ht=merril+hoge
Posts: 21,904