Pioli drafts for need. - Page 2

Direckshun · 05-02-2012, 11:53 AM

I took some time this afternoon to run all four first-rounders through a common metric to see if there's any connection I could draw.

2009: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
2010: SS Eric Berry, Tennessee
2011: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
2012: NT Dontari Poe, Memphis

Turns out there really isn't a connective tissue between the four. It's crazy that one guy drafted all four of them.

Character flags:

Yes: Baldwin (diva), Poe (motor)
No: Jackson, Berry

In need of development:

None: Berry
Some: Jackson
Lots: Baldwin
Complete: Poe

Positional value:

High: Jackson, Baldwin, Poe
Medium: Berry

Draft's depth at the position:

Deep: Berry, Baldwin
Shallow: Jackson, Poe

Boom-bust?

Nope: Berry, Jackson
Yes: Poe, Baldwin

Out of every single line I could draw, I could only draw two:

1. The Chiefs tend to avoid injury-concern players in the first round. (But even this is unlikely because they liked Barron.)
2. The Chiefs have a desperate need at the drafted position each year.

DE was the team's #1 need in 2009. Safety was among the team's top needs in 2010. WR was perhaps the top need in 2011, and NT was the top need this year.

I think Pioli may just be a needs-first drafter, at least in the first round.

whoman69 · 05-03-2012, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I think a lot of people who evaluated Poe confused "poor motor" with "got his ass kicked". Poe gave an effort, he just wasn't effective.

Poe was in way too many snaps for a man his size, had no help around him and was asked to roam around on the line. The physical talent is there, it needs to be honed. Honed a lot.

Chiefnj2 · 05-03-2012, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whoman69

Poe was in way too many snaps for a man his size, had no help around him and was asked to roam around on the line. The physical talent is there, it needs to be honed. Honed a lot.

He was in for too many snaps no doubt. The problem is that he wasn't dominant in the first quarter when he wasn't gassed.

whoman69 · 05-03-2012, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

He was in for too many snaps no doubt. The problem is that he wasn't dominant in the first quarter when he wasn't gassed.

Too many snaps wasn't the only issue why he didn't succeed. Don't be a Patteau and only pay attention to one part of the argument.

Chiefnj2 · 05-04-2012, 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whoman69

Too many snaps wasn't the only issue why he didn't succeed. Don't be a Patteau and only pay attention to one part of the argument.

Don't rationalize his collegiate play just because KC drafted him. He wasn't that good of a college player, especially for someone with his natural ability. Pioli drafted a workout warrior.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 05-04-2012, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Don't rationalize his collegiate play just because KC drafted him. He wasn't that good of a college player, especially for someone with his natural ability. Pioli drafted a workout warrior.

You knew the rationalization was coming.

Very few wanted this kid before the draft, now people think he's a great pick.

People are already setting it up for when he sucks his first year (or two or three) they can break out the "of course he was going to suck his first year" argument.

He'll get a ridiculously long leash for no other reason than who drafted him.

Direckshun · 05-04-2012, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

You knew the rationalization was coming.

Very few wanted this kid before the draft, now people think he's a great pick.

People are already setting it up for when he sucks his first year (or two or three) they can break out the "of course he was going to suck his first year" argument.

He'll get a ridiculously long leash for no other reason than who drafted him.

On the other hand, one can defer to the expert.

I don't think interstellar travel is worth our time to research, but if Stephen Hawking says it is, I'll defer to him because he's a proven genius.

I'll admit I didn't like the Poe selection, but if Romeo Crennel says he has the ability to be molded into someone excellent, I'll defer to him because he's a legit defensive line genius.

Same thing with Herm Edwards and defensive backs -- the guy had a really great eye for them, despite his deficiencies everywhere else (and I do mean everywhere else). Think Todd Haley and receivers, and so on...

Direckshun · 05-04-2012, 08:05 AM

And I will say this, OTW.

We've had this debate a couple years ago when you were the Chiefs GM in the CP Mock draft.

You have to reach for franchise nose tackles, just like you have to reach for franchise quarterbacks. Other wise you end up with midround guys at "great value" instead of high round talent at iffy value (to be generous...).

Poe was a legit 2nd round prospect that we ended up taking way too high in the same vein that Miami did the same thing with Tannehill.

But the position is so important with so few prospects who truly look like they are able to fulfill the role, that you almost have to take the "if you don't have a franchise nose, you take one" motto that we've used for quarterbacks for years.

Chiefnj2 · 05-04-2012, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

But the position is so important with so few prospects who truly look like they are able to fulfill the role, that you almost have to take the "if you don't have a franchise nose, you take one" motto that we've used for quarterbacks for years.

Then why didn't Pioli do that his first 3 years?

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Powe, not Poe, was starting week 1. You look back at clips of Powe and he looks impressive. I don't know what happened with him last year cracking the roster.

Direckshun · 05-04-2012, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Then why didn't Pioli do that his first 3 years?

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Powe, not Poe, was starting week 1. You look back at clips of Powe and he looks impressive. I don't know what happened with him last year cracking the roster.

I think the only franchise nose Pioli passed on was Cody.

Were there others?

Edit: It will be an extremely fun competition between Poe and Powe for that starting nose tackle position -- I'm going to love it. I think they just purposefully brought Powe along very slowly last year.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 05-04-2012, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

On the other hand, one can defer to the expert.

I don't think interstellar travel is worth our time to research, but if Stephen Hawking says it is, I'll defer to him because he's a proven genius.

I'll admit I didn't like the Poe selection, but if Romeo Crennel says he has the ability to be molded into someone excellent, I'll defer to him because he's a legit defensive line genius.

Same thing with Herm Edwards and defensive backs -- the guy had a really great eye for them, despite his deficiencies everywhere else (and I do mean everywhere else). Think Todd Haley and receivers, and so on...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

And I will say this, OTW.

We've had this debate a couple years ago when you were the Chiefs GM in the CP Mock draft.

You have to reach for franchise nose tackles, just like you have to reach for franchise quarterbacks. Other wise you end up with midround guys at "great value" instead of high round talent at iffy value (to be generous...).

Poe was a legit 2nd round prospect that we ended up taking way too high in the same vein that Miami did the same thing with Tannehill.

But the position is so important with so few prospects who truly look like they are able to fulfill the role, that you almost have to take the "if you don't have a franchise nose, you take one" motto that we've used for quarterbacks for years.

Says the guy that started a thread titled, "Drafting a nose = bad idea this year."

Direckshun · 05-04-2012, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Says the guy that started a thread titled, "Drafting a nose this year = bad idea."

I've written more condemning things than that, OTW. I have a 1,500 word post back in March detailing how poor of a fit Poe would be for our scheme.

I've told you I didn't like the pick. It was a solid one-round reach.

But it's not logically inconsistent to come around on the player if Crennel vouches for the guy. This is the bread-and-butter of a Super Bowl caliber defensive coordinator.

That doesn't mean I have to come around on value, because it was piss poor value.

KCDC · 05-04-2012, 08:33 AM

I don't like the Poe pick at #11 either.

As Milkman notes, the value of a safety is rising and, IMO conversely, the value of a nose is falling in today's NFL. So I think the positional value argument can be challenged. Nevertheless, a host of CPers over the past several seasons have said that a NT was the #1 need of this team.

Directshun, I think your analysis is a good one. I think Pioli regrets having passed on Cody. He was probably thinking the same of Cody what people are saying now about Poe. Yet, Cody worked out well. He also learned the lesson that the NT position is plug and play only if you want average play that does not push the pocket. You can fill with journeymen and late round picks for someone to be a fireplug up the middle.

The thing that has me coming to grips with the Poe selection so early was that Romeo explained, in essence, that he was the only NT that had a hope of collapsing the pocket because of his size and strength. If a NT can collapse a pocket while being double teamed, Romeo's point was that it would prevent an opposing QB from stepping up in the pocket. That helps defend against the pass, as well as the run, making his positional value higher.

If he is basically saying that only a monster like Ngata can collapse the pocket and that Poe is the only one in the class with that sort of physical ability, I can see it and have some hope that Poe (with proper coaching) can become an elite NT, rather than just a serviceable one. I think it was a big roll of the dice and the odds don't favor that he can become an elite; but, I can come to grips with the desperation/excitement that Romeo felt.

**BossChief** · 05-04-2012, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

You knew the rationalization was coming.

Very few wanted this kid before the draft, now people think he's a great pick.

People are already setting it up for when he sucks his first year (or two or three) they can break out the "of course he was going to suck his first year" argument.

He'll get a ridiculously long leash for no other reason than who drafted him.

It's always been the case that the higher the ceiling, the longer the leash.

royr17 · 05-04-2012, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

This is great news! It means we will finally draft a QB next year!

Dont hold your breath, both Dorsey and Albert are Unrestricted Free Agents, and Jackson can be cut, DE or OT will probably be the 1st round pick next year.

htismaqe · 05-04-2012, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I don't know what happened with him last year cracking the roster.

He was a rookie. They don't want to play them if they don't have to.

05-02-2012, 11:53 AM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2103447	Pioli drafts for need. I took some time this afternoon to run all four first-rounders through a common metric to see if there's any connection I could draw. 2009: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU 2010: SS Eric Berry, Tennessee 2011: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh 2012: NT Dontari Poe, Memphis Turns out there really isn't a connective tissue between the four. It's crazy that one guy drafted all four of them. Character flags: Yes: Baldwin (diva), Poe (motor) No: Jackson, Berry In need of development: None: Berry Some: Jackson Lots: Baldwin Complete: Poe Positional value: High: Jackson, Baldwin, Poe Medium: Berry Draft's depth at the position: Deep: Berry, Baldwin Shallow: Jackson, Poe Boom-bust? Nope: Berry, Jackson Yes: Poe, Baldwin Out of every single line I could draw, I could only draw two: 1. The Chiefs tend to avoid injury-concern players in the first round. (But even this is unlikely because they liked Barron.) 2. The Chiefs have a desperate need at the drafted position each year. DE was the team's #1 need in 2009. Safety was among the team's top needs in 2010. WR was perhaps the top need in 2011, and NT was the top need this year. I think Pioli may just be a needs-first drafter, at least in the first round.
Posts: 59,688

05-04-2012, 08:05 AM	#22
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2103447	And I will say this, OTW. We've had this debate a couple years ago when you were the Chiefs GM in the CP Mock draft. You have to reach for franchise nose tackles, just like you have to reach for franchise quarterbacks. Other wise you end up with midround guys at "great value" instead of high round talent at iffy value (to be generous...). Poe was a legit 2nd round prospect that we ended up taking way too high in the same vein that Miami did the same thing with Tannehill. But the position is so important with so few prospects who truly look like they are able to fulfill the role, that you almost have to take the "if you don't have a franchise nose, you take one" motto that we've used for quarterbacks for years.
Posts: 59,688

05-04-2012, 08:33 AM	#27
KCDC Starter Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $9616110	I don't like the Poe pick at #11 either. As Milkman notes, the value of a safety is rising and, IMO conversely, the value of a nose is falling in today's NFL. So I think the positional value argument can be challenged. Nevertheless, a host of CPers over the past several seasons have said that a NT was the #1 need of this team. Directshun, I think your analysis is a good one. I think Pioli regrets having passed on Cody. He was probably thinking the same of Cody what people are saying now about Poe. Yet, Cody worked out well. He also learned the lesson that the NT position is plug and play only if you want average play that does not push the pocket. You can fill with journeymen and late round picks for someone to be a fireplug up the middle. The thing that has me coming to grips with the Poe selection so early was that Romeo explained, in essence, that he was the only NT that had a hope of collapsing the pocket because of his size and strength. If a NT can collapse a pocket while being double teamed, Romeo's point was that it would prevent an opposing QB from stepping up in the pocket. That helps defend against the pass, as well as the run, making his positional value higher. If he is basically saying that only a monster like Ngata can collapse the pocket and that Poe is the only one in the class with that sort of physical ability, I can see it and have some hope that Poe (with proper coaching) can become an elite NT, rather than just a serviceable one. I think it was a big roll of the dice and the odds don't favor that he can become an elite; but, I can come to grips with the desperation/excitement that Romeo felt.
Posts: 886