Football Expectations and Alex Smith - Page 22

keg in kc · 03-23-2013, 03:29 PM

Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.

patteeu · 03-24-2013, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Teams that add a quality quarterback turn things around almost immediately.

Dalton
Wilson
Ryan
Rothlisberger
Brady
RG3
Luck
Flacco

I could go on....

Shit, shouldn't going from Romeo to Reid give us 2-3 wins?

We just dropped a ****ton of cash in free agency...that should get us a win or 2, right?

Adding a 29 year old "franchise quarterback" (which is consistent with the compensation that was given up) to this equation makes anything less than a playoff birth a complete and total failure.

The Chiefs are in the same division as the Peyton Manning-led team that just earned home field advantage this past season and you're going to call it a complete and total failure if a 2-14 team doesn't make the playoffs? I think playoffs is a reasonable goal for this team, but falling just short should be characterized as a disappointment, not a complete and total failure. Going 2-14 again would be a complete and total failure.

KCDC · 03-24-2013, 11:49 AM

I do not consider 7 to 8 wins a "success" unless those 7-8 wins are against playoff teams. Having the last place schedule will inflate this year's performance as it did in 2010.

I expect Smith to have a "good" year by his standards and we will win maybe even 9 or 10, but cannot beat playoff caliber teams.

We have Cassel back in 2010. We will get some easy wins with AS and look bad against good teams because he, likewise, has a hard time coming back from a scoring deficit.

End of day, mediocrity with no chance for the brass ring. We'll do just good enough to have a lousy draft pick. We'll beat the Raiders twice next year and then grieve when they get the #1 pick overall in 2014 and get the best QB, leading us to a very dark place for a generation.

If you stack Geno expectations vs. AS expectations, I think you get one or two more wins maybe with AS this year, but Geno would give the hope of developing into elite/top 10 status.

With Alex, what you see is what you get. Even his greatest fans admit the same. There is no reason to believe that an 8 year veteran will transform magically into a star. Yeah, Gannon did somewhat, but Gannon had better tools than AS, and less opportunity to shine before he was given the ball.

**BossChief** · 03-24-2013, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

The Chiefs are in the same division as the Peyton Manning-led team that just earned home field advantage this past season and you're going to call it a complete and total failure if a 2-14 team doesn't make the playoffs? I think playoffs is a reasonable goal for this team, but falling just short should be characterized as a disappointment, not a complete and total failure. Going 2-14 again would be a complete and total failure.

If we traded the exact same compensation for one of the following quarterbacks, wouldn't a playoff birth be EXPECTED?

Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Joe Flacco
Ben Rothlisberger
Drew Brees
Colin Kaepernick
RG3
Luck
Russel Wilson
Andy Dalton
Aaron Rodgers
Phillip Rivers

Coogs · 03-24-2013, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCDC

I do not consider 7 to 8 wins a "success" unless those 7-8 wins are against playoff teams. Having the last place schedule will inflate this year's performance as it did in 2010.

There is really no such thing as a last place schedule anymore.

Here is our schedule:

2013 Kansas City Chiefs Opponents

Home Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, Indianapolis, Dallas, N.Y. Giants,
Cleveland

Away Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Philadelphia,
Washington, Buffalo

It looks pretty much the same as the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders.

Only difference is we have Cleveland and Buffalo.

**BossChief** · 03-24-2013, 12:14 PM

If we can't win AT LEAST 9 of those games, I don't see how ANYONE can consider the trade not a failure.

The guy is 29 and will make 10 million dollars and we traded a mid first round pick worth of draft value for him.

Matt ****ing Cassel could probably win 7 of those games with Reid as his HC.

Chris Meck · 03-24-2013, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

I don't see him as ascending.

He has gotten coaching and playcalling to help him avoid failure.

That is how Cassel "succeeded" in '08 and '10.

Fair enough. I just don't think he's NEARLY as limited as Cassel, either physically or mentally.

Hammock Parties · 03-24-2013, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Fair enough. I just don't think he's NEARLY as limited as Cassel, either physically or mentally.

He's just as limited physically, and that is why the best stretch of his career is less than 190 yards a game passing.

FringeNC · 03-24-2013, 12:46 PM

The difference between Cassel in 2010 and Smith in 2013 is that Andy Reid runs a pass-first offense. Much more of the success of the offense will be dependent on Alex Smith.

The question is whether Alex Smith can maintain his high YPA, low interception rate, and high QB rating when the defense is playing the pass instead of plaything the run. If Smith throws 600 times next season, and has a QB rating over 90, Andy Reid will look like a genius. If he has a QB rating of 70, it'll be the disaster that Clay is predicting.

**Mav** · 03-24-2013, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

The Colts made the playoffs last year after a 2-14 season in 2011. Improved by 9 wins. Should we expect less from seasoned vet Alex Smith than we saw from rookie Andrew Luck?

nope. You absolutely shouldnt. Dont also forget that the Colts, did a scheme change on defense, the only real veteran they had on offense was reggie wayne, everyone else was young......

I agree, the expectations should be playoffs, i believe that dorsey reid, and alex smith would tell you that is their expectations as well.

patteeu · 03-24-2013, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

If we traded the exact same compensation for one of the following quarterbacks, wouldn't a playoff birth be EXPECTED?

Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Joe Flacco
Ben Rothlisberger
Drew Brees
Colin Kaepernick
RG3
Luck
Russel Wilson
Andy Dalton
Aaron Rodgers
Phillip Rivers

Which of those could you reasonably expect to get for that kind of compensation?

jd1020 · 03-24-2013, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

Which of those could you reasonably expect to get for that kind of compensation?

Dalton probably.

Mayyyyyybe Roethlisberger or Rivers.

patteeu · 03-24-2013, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

Dalton probably.

Mayyyyyybe Roethlisberger or Rivers.

I wouldn't have any greater expectation for Dalton than I do for Alex Smith. I might have a slightly greater expectation for Rothlisberger and I'd probably have lower expectations for Rivers.

Playoff birth would be a good goal in any of their cases, IMO. I don't think I'd consider it an utter failure if they just missed the first year though. I'd give them a second year to see how the system/players/QB gel.

P.S. Your subsequent posts talking about 9 wins seems much more reasonable to me than the post about "complete and total failure" that I responded to.

jd1020 · 03-24-2013, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

I wouldn't have any greater expectation for Dalton than I do for Alex Smith. I might have a slightly greater expectation for Rothlisberger and I'd probably have lower expectations for Rivers.

I'd probably have less expectations for Dalton than I do for Smith.

I don't get the hype surrounding him.

**Dave Lane** · 03-24-2013, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

The difference between Cassel in 2010 and Smith in 2013 is that Andy Reid runs a pass-first offense. Much more of the success of the offense will be dependent on Alex Smith.

The question is whether Alex Smith can maintain his high YPA, low interception rate, and high QB rating when the defense is playing the pass instead of plaything the run. If Smith throws 600 times next season, and has a QB rating over 90, Andy Reid will look like a genius. If he has a QB rating of 70, it'll be the disaster that Clay is predicting.

Fair enough

**Mav** · 03-24-2013, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

I'd probably have less expectations for Dalton than I do for Smith.

I don't get the hype surrounding him.

we agree on that. Hes christian ponder to me....

03-23-2013, 03:29 PM
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	Expectations and Alex Smith Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.
Posts: 58,682

03-24-2013, 11:49 AM	#317
KCDC Starter Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $9676110	I do not consider 7 to 8 wins a "success" unless those 7-8 wins are against playoff teams. Having the last place schedule will inflate this year's performance as it did in 2010. I expect Smith to have a "good" year by his standards and we will win maybe even 9 or 10, but cannot beat playoff caliber teams. We have Cassel back in 2010. We will get some easy wins with AS and look bad against good teams because he, likewise, has a hard time coming back from a scoring deficit. End of day, mediocrity with no chance for the brass ring. We'll do just good enough to have a lousy draft pick. We'll beat the Raiders twice next year and then grieve when they get the #1 pick overall in 2014 and get the best QB, leading us to a very dark place for a generation. If you stack Geno expectations vs. AS expectations, I think you get one or two more wins maybe with AS this year, but Geno would give the hope of developing into elite/top 10 status. With Alex, what you see is what you get. Even his greatest fans admit the same. There is no reason to believe that an 8 year veteran will transform magically into a star. Yeah, Gannon did somewhat, but Gannon had better tools than AS, and less opportunity to shine before he was given the ball.
Posts: 880

03-24-2013, 12:14 PM	#320
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $114088	If we can't win AT LEAST 9 of those games, I don't see how ANYONE can consider the trade not a failure. The guy is 29 and will make 10 million dollars and we traded a mid first round pick worth of draft value for him. Matt ****ing Cassel could probably win 7 of those games with Reid as his HC. __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,528

03-24-2013, 12:46 PM	#323
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $106014	The difference between Cassel in 2010 and Smith in 2013 is that Andy Reid runs a pass-first offense. Much more of the success of the offense will be dependent on Alex Smith. The question is whether Alex Smith can maintain his high YPA, low interception rate, and high QB rating when the defense is playing the pass instead of plaything the run. If Smith throws 600 times next season, and has a QB rating over 90, Andy Reid will look like a genius. If he has a QB rating of 70, it'll be the disaster that Clay is predicting.
Posts: 10,179