Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 391

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Nightfyre · 06-15-2013, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

You have to make a "qualifying" offer, which is a contract of at least one year for at least a set amount based on average contracts of other FA pitchers or some such (kind of like the franchise tag).

If you don't make the offer, you don't get compensation for the pitcher. If no one signs the pitcher before the MLB drat, you don't get compensation.

I'd be hesitant to offer Santana a long-term deal because of his age, his tendency to have terrible years, and his heavy reliance on his slider. But he's been damn good for KC and the trade has worked out perfectly.

If they stay in it, you keep him. You will need him down the stretch and would like to line up Shields and Santana 1-2 in a potential playoff series.

What's crazy is that Santana's AVG FB velocity is up, but only slightly (0.2 MPH). I think the main difference is that his HR/FB rate was crazily high last year.

He's locating better and playing in front of a tremendous run-prevention defense. He does seem to be working in the change and two-seam fastball more, but not a HUGE change.

I dunno. Santana is pretty inconsistent throughout his career. I would consider selling high on him. And Guthrie. There is no reason to believe that Guthrie will continue to experience his recent success. We have Duffy and Paulino ready to come back in July. I'm just saying.

duncan_idaho · 06-15-2013, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I dunno. Santana is pretty inconsistent throughout his career. I would consider selling high on him. And Guthrie. There is no reason to believe that Guthrie will continue to experience his recent success. We have Duffy and Paulino ready to come back in July. I'm just saying.

It's unlikely anyone would trade anything of helpful value for Guthrie.

Santana typically has 2 good to great years for every bad year. He's generally pretty consistent throughout a season, whether he's having a good one or a bad one.

Selling high on him midseason probably doesn't help as much as you think it might. You'd have to sell to a contender, and it would be hard to find one of those willing to part with an everyday 2B or RF that makes the same type of impact as Santana.

You probably get more value from him by keeping him the entire season, making a qualifying offer, and picking up a comp. pick i next year's draft.

He'd be a great chip to trade if they're not IN the race at the trade deadline. But you weaken a big part of the rotation by moving him... even with Paulino and Duffy coming back, there's no guarantee those guys are good to go from Day 1.

If the Royals make the playoffs, they need a better No. 2 than Jeremy Guthrie, Luis Mendoza or Felipe Paulino.

Archie F. Swin · 06-15-2013, 10:59 AM

Has there never been a parallel between KC Royals and BBQ sauce in franchise history?

Nightfyre · 06-15-2013, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It's unlikely anyone would trade anything of helpful value for Guthrie.

Santana typically has 2 good to great years for every bad year. He's generally pretty consistent throughout a season, whether he's having a good one or a bad one.

Selling high on him midseason probably doesn't help as much as you think it might. You'd have to sell to a contender, and it would be hard to find one of those willing to part with an everyday 2B or RF that makes the same type of impact as Santana.

You probably get more value from him by keeping him the entire season, making a qualifying offer, and picking up a comp. pick i next year's draft.

He'd be a great chip to trade if they're not IN the race at the trade deadline. But you weaken a big part of the rotation by moving him... even with Paulino and Duffy coming back, there's no guarantee those guys are good to go from Day 1.

If the Royals make the playoffs, they need a better No. 2 than Jeremy Guthrie, Luis Mendoza or Felipe Paulino.

I had forgotten that players who aren't with the ballclub for the entirety of the season do not produce a compensatory selection anymore. DM played the Santana thing pretty well really. Sisk for a year of Santana at 12 mill and a comp pick (which broadens our money pool for the draft) is a pretty good get.

BigCatDaddy · 06-15-2013, 11:04 AM

I'm neg bombing the next poster that mentions trading any contributor off the major league roster at the moment.

Demonpenz · 06-15-2013, 11:22 AM

I am glad the guys really stuck together and kept it loose. Baseball is such a grind.

boogblaster · 06-15-2013, 11:42 AM

watched last 8 games .. they finally lookin like a baseball team .. GO ROYALS ....

CaliforniaChief · 06-15-2013, 11:45 AM

And it all comes back to...Moose and Hosmer.

Hosmer is showing signs to me. Moose is not. But if we're going to sustain this run and win more games than lose, those two guys have GOT to contribute.

**cabletech94** · 06-15-2013, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

And it all comes back to...Moose and Hosmer.

Hosmer is showing signs to me. Moose is not. But if we're going to sustain this run and win more games than lose, those two guys have GOT to contribute.

can you imagine what will happen when gordo comes out of his slump?

AND/IF/(MAYBE) moose turns it around?

#holycrapgodmode!

**DeezNutz** · 06-15-2013, 12:55 PM

I'd rather try to extend Santana than Shields because of the mileage on the latter's arm/body.

Kidd Lex · 06-15-2013, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I'm neg bombing the next poster that mentions trading any contributor off the major league roster at the moment.

We need to trade Frenchy for a bag of balls.

Oh you said contributor.

Nightfyre · 06-15-2013, 01:14 PM

Well, the good news is that there are no more scheduled blackouts for Royals games on mlb.tv's schedule. The bad news is that I'm on to night flying which means work will prevent me from enjoying the weekday games live.

**Shogun** · 06-15-2013, 02:02 PM

The 30 MLB teams ranked 1-30 in @BBTN Web Gems this season. Check out where your team ranks... http://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/sta...349440/photo/1

duncan_idaho · 06-15-2013, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I'd rather try to extend Santana than Shields because of the mileage on the latter's arm/body.

Would it surprise you to hear that Ervin Santana actually has thrown MORE innings in his career than James Shields (by about 20-25)?

I was shocked to see that.

Given fairly equal mileage and age (Shields is 1 year older), I'll take the fastball/changeup guy over the fastball/slider guy.

I think Shields more as a staff leader/sage type.

Nightfyre · 06-15-2013, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Would it surprise you to hear that Ervin Santana actually has thrown MORE innings in his career than James Shields (by about 20-25)?

I was shocked to see that.

Given fairly equal mileage and age (Shields is 1 year older), I'll take the fastball/changeup guy over the fastball/slider guy.

I think Shields more as a staff leader/sage type.

I would take Shields as well.

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1909692	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 22,327

06-15-2013, 10:59 AM	#5853
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	Has there never been a parallel between KC Royals and BBQ sauce in franchise history? __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
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06-15-2013, 11:04 AM	#5855
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $-1580878	I'm neg bombing the next poster that mentions trading any contributor off the major league roster at the moment.
Posts: 26,247

06-15-2013, 11:22 AM	#5856
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $-203864	I am glad the guys really stuck together and kept it loose. Baseball is such a grind. __________________
Posts: 54,937

06-15-2013, 11:42 AM	#5857
boogblaster MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Verdigris Valley Campsite Casino cash: $10004900	watched last 8 games .. they finally lookin like a baseball team .. GO ROYALS .... __________________ WR or S please
Posts: 10,305

06-15-2013, 11:45 AM	#5858
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $10695899	And it all comes back to...Moose and Hosmer. Hosmer is showing signs to me. Moose is not. But if we're going to sustain this run and win more games than lose, those two guys have GOT to contribute.
Posts: 17,444

06-15-2013, 01:14 PM	#5862
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	Well, the good news is that there are no more scheduled blackouts for Royals games on mlb.tv's schedule. The bad news is that I'm on to night flying which means work will prevent me from enjoying the weekday games live.
Posts: 18,647