2013 Sandbox Simulations League 1 Thread - Page 140

DJ's left nut · 12:35 PM

Figured creating a new thread for the upcoming league 1 season would probably help consolidate discussion.

Teams:

Anchorage Roadkill Rabbits lostcause
Austin Armadillos noa
Cedar Rapids Angry Clam Hammers dj56dt58
Chula Vista cripplas mrroandro
Clearwater Donkeys DJsleftnut
Dallas K-Swiss Tubes Zeke
Denver Broncos Wonton prejudice (gochiefs).
Duluth Pillagers rain man
Fort Wayne Dukes jerm
Fort Worth Drifters KCChiefsman
High Point Knob Hills ChiefAshhole20
Independence Vision cdcox
Kansas City Ball Busters Kyle DeLexus
Las Vegas Lonely Strippers sfchief
Overland Park Chiefs Old Dog
Pittsburgh Tacos brorth
Portland Rhein Foster (not a cp member - contact via djsleftnut)
Provo Knuckledraggers rageeumr
Richmond Tigerhawks carlos3652
Springfield Attack bevischief
St Joseph Stetsons austinchief
Topeka Tyrannicide Allen_kccard
Ventura Highways rockchalk
Wichita Potheads Confirmed topher79

Spoiler!

carlos3652 · 08-01-2013, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rageeumr

Lost 24-21 in OT despite my D giving up no TDs. Punt block TD hurt. Also got a sack & strip at Richmond's 20 and immediately threw an INT.

Flynn was serviceable. Just one of those games.

Marshawn Lynch rushing 17 times for 35 yards was the reason you lost.

End of the 1st - Richmond 3-0
Half Time - Richmond 8-3 (safety and Fg's so far)
End of the 3rd - Richmond 8-6

This is where it gets fun
15:00 left - Provo 14-8 (Provo TD)
5:00 left - Provo 14-11 (Richmond 53 yard FG)
2:16 left - Richmond 18-14 (Richmond Blocked punt TD)
1:06 left - Provo 21-18 (Provo 11 yard pass td on 4th and 10)
0:00 left - Tied 21-21 (Richmond 47 yard FG)

0:51 left OT Richmond 24-21 (Richmond 40 yard FG)

Great game, great Defense on both sides.

MagicHef · 08-01-2013, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

Holy shit, my defense went absolutely NUTS on Jay Cutler. Seven sacks, 3 fumbles and 3 interceptions.

I'm a little shocked. At this point I'm beginning to think my defense might actually be better than my offense. I mean, Tom Brady just basically sat on his ass for two weeks and I won twice by double digits.

I was all excited to get Cutler back from injury this week.

Then, this happened.

Hammock Parties · 08-01-2013, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I was all excited to get Cutler back from injury this week.

Then, this happened.

I've never had a Sandbox game go that way.

It was close for 2.5-3Q, I honestly felt like my offense was stagnating, and then Cutler just started shitting turnovers.

Hammock Parties · 08-01-2013, 10:40 PM

That was honestly a shit game from my offense.

I had 2 drives worth shit, and one was a 70-yard run by Spiller.

I can't believe I'm so anxious over a 10-1 team.

I just hate what's happened to my passing game.

**Rain Man** · 08-01-2013, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Is that code for cut-blocking ankle-breaking cheaters?

If you look at the 35 yard line, your guy clearly blocked our guy in the back on that punt return touchdown.

MagicHef · 08-01-2013, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

That was honestly a shit game from my offense.

I had 2 drives worth shit, and one was a 70-yard run by Spiller.

I can't believe I'm so anxious over a 10-1 team.

I just hate what's happened to my passing game.

Brady's not doing much and you're dominating, while in League 2, I have Brady, he just threw all over the field, and we won 16-10.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 08-02-2013, 07:43 AM

This sim is just ridiculous some times. This is one drive.

3rd Q 7:53 1st and 10 Overland Park 21 Josh Freeman passes complete to Steve Johnson for a gain of 18 yards. PENALTY. Defensive Pass Interference on Patrick Peterson. 16 yards. Penalty declined.
3rd Q 7:45 1st and 10 Overland Park 39 Josh Freeman passes incomplete, dropped by Jeremy Shockey.
3rd Q 7:38 2nd and 10 Overland Park 39 Josh Freeman passes incomplete to Steve Johnson. PENALTY. Defensive Holding on Stephen Paea. 5 yards.
3rd Q 7:30 1st and 10 Overland Park 44 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes complete to Steve Johnson for a gain of 17 yards.
3rd Q 6:45 1st and 10 Dallas 38 Michael Turner rushes for 3 yards.
3rd Q 6:03 2nd and 7 Dallas 36 Michael Turner rushes for 0 yards.
3rd Q 5:21 3rd and 7 Dallas 36 Josh Freeman (pressured) scrambles for -1 yards. PENALTY. Defensive Holding on Cullen Jenkins. 5 yards.
3rd Q 5:13 1st and 10 Dallas 31 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes incomplete to free agent. PENALTY. Neutral Zone Infraction on James Harrison. 5 yards.
3rd Q 5:05 1st and 5 Dallas 26 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes incomplete to free agent.
3rd Q 4:58 2nd and 5 Dallas 26 Michael Turner rushes for 2 yards. PENALTY. Neutral Zone Infraction on Stephen Paea. 5 yards.
3rd Q 4:50 2nd and inches Dallas 21 Josh Freeman passes complete to Jeremy Shockey for a gain of 22 yards. Touchdown, conversion

**Rain Man** · 08-02-2013, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

This sim is just ridiculous some times. This is one drive.

Must've been a road game.

I'm going to watch games now with an eye toward how often penalties occur on drives. The overall penalties in Sandbox match well with the NFL stats, so when we have these microbursts of penalties they must be offset by other drives that are underpenalized. So in the NFL do you just tend to have one penalty on every drive, or do you get flurries like the one you showed that drive up the numbers? I'm not sure.

DJ's left nut · 08-02-2013, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

This sim is just ridiculous some times. This is one drive.

Now you understand my pain...

My loss to High Point was entirely because of penalties. Sometimes the sim really does go "Monday Night Meltdown" on you and the entire team just goes penalty crazy.

EDIT: You have fewer than half as many penalty yards as I do; I'm still about 25% ahead of 2nd place. I don't wanna hear it...

DJ's left nut · 08-02-2013, 09:42 AM

Boy, Clearwater 'bout got caught being too cute.

"Pft...RGIII doesn't scare me. We're selling out to stop the run"

Well, stop the run I did - AP did jack and shit. Too bad they put in a bombs away passing offense on me this week. Crabtree cut me up for almost 200 yards receiving. The problem was that I had my base defense set to run bliz like a MFer and Crab was exploiting the hell out of it. That's why I'd love to see the games simmed by halves rather than the whole game. By the 2nd quarter of that game I knew I was in some serious shit and that my gameplan was just flat wrong. But you can't make adjustments so I had to hope for raw talent to trump.

Fumbling a snap on first and goal from the 4 didn't help me much, but ultimately Rod Streater's career game was enough to get me the win. For the 2nd time this year an interception in the final minutes inside my own 5 yard line sealed the win.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 08-02-2013, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Now you understand my pain...

My loss to High Point was entirely because of penalties. Sometimes the sim really does go "Monday Night Meltdown" on you and the entire team just goes penalty crazy.

EDIT: You have fewer than half as many penalty yards as I do; I'm still about 25% ahead of 2nd place. I don't wanna hear it...

Yes, but you don't have a kicker that is 5 out of 20 or so (ya I'm emblishing a bit not sure what the real stats are), and given up double digit specialteams\defensive TD's on the season... so there.

Hammock Parties · 08-02-2013, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Boy, Clearwater 'bout got caught being too cute.

"Pft...RGIII doesn't scare me. We're selling out to stop the run"

Well, stop the run I did - AP did jack and shit. Too bad they put in a bombs away passing offense on me this week. Crabtree cut me up for almost 200 yards receiving. The problem was that I had my base defense set to run bliz like a MFer and Crab was exploiting the hell out of it. .

I could be wrong, but I don't think you were sending run blitzes.

Those are automatically configured in by the software.

Each and every blitz you drew up was designed to blitz the QB.

Quote:

In the tables below, you are specifying blitzes designed to rush the QB as opposed to blitzes designed to disrupt the running game.

A certain number of run blitzes are automatically factored into your run defense.

And now I'm very interested to see how you attack me.

DJ's left nut · 08-02-2013, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

I could be wrong, but I don't think you were sending run blitzes.

Those are automatically configured in by the software.

Each and every blitz you drew up was designed to blitz the QB.

And now I'm very interested to see how you attack me.

I know, but I was blitzing LBs like a sumbitch to essentially load the line. I left the middles wide open. I dialed up several of the old 'Madden' blitzes where I was sending multiple different guys. It was easily the most aggressive blitz packages I have ever used because I literally had no worry at all about RGIII picking it apart and knew that all those guys attacking the line should help prevent AP from getting to the 2nd level.

It did, but RGIII definitely carved it up.

Hammock Parties · 08-02-2013, 01:09 PM

I wonder if that's how that actually works, though.

Please try it against me.

**cdcox** · 08-02-2013, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Must've been a road game.

I'm going to watch games now with an eye toward how often penalties occur on drives. The overall penalties in Sandbox match well with the NFL stats, so when we have these microbursts of penalties they must be offset by other drives that are underpenalized. So in the NFL do you just tend to have one penalty on every drive, or do you get flurries like the one you showed that drive up the numbers? I'm not sure.

These numbers aren't perfect, but they can give us a quick look. I generated them doing a quick spreadsheet analysis of NFL play-by-play data.

Out of 6465 drives in 2012, the number of penalties per drive (against both teams, both accepted and declined) breaks down like this:

0 penalties: 4199
1 penalty: 1595
2 penalties: 490
3 penalties: 139
4 penalties: 32
5 penalties: 6
6 penalties: 4

So Zeke's case should be possible, but rare.

We can also do a rough estimate of what the distribution of penalties per drive should look like if the NFL made all their penalty calls randomly. Let's take the average number of NFL plays per drive 6.57 and translate that into an assumption that all NFL drives have exactly 6 plays. We'll also assume that the chance of a penalty on any given play is about 0.075. If all penalties occurred randomly we would expect the following frequency of penalties per 6 play drive:

0 penalties: 0.638
1 penalty: 0.304
2 penalties: 0.061
3 penalties: 0.006

Compared to actual 2012 NFL frequencies

0 penalties: 0.649
1 penalty: 0.246
2 penalties: 0.076
3 penalties: 0.021

So NFL refs tend to bunch penalties on a given drive more than one would expect if penalties were completely at random. This might be related to sloppiness of a particular team or make-up penalties. Of course the relatively small difference between NFL rates and my ideal rates could be tied to the assumptions I made in the analysis.

Probably only Rain Man and I will find this all fascinating.

05-14-2013, 08:57 AM
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-730901	2013 Sandbox Simulations League 1 Thread Figured creating a new thread for the upcoming league 1 season would probably help consolidate discussion. Teams: Anchorage Roadkill Rabbits lostcause Austin Armadillos noa Cedar Rapids Angry Clam Hammers dj56dt58 Chula Vista cripplas mrroandro Clearwater Donkeys DJsleftnut Dallas K-Swiss Tubes Zeke Denver Broncos Wonton prejudice (gochiefs). Duluth Pillagers rain man Fort Wayne Dukes jerm Fort Worth Drifters KCChiefsman High Point Knob Hills ChiefAshhole20 Independence Vision cdcox Kansas City Ball Busters Kyle DeLexus Las Vegas Lonely Strippers sfchief Overland Park Chiefs Old Dog Pittsburgh Tacos brorth Portland Rhein Foster (not a cp member - contact via djsleftnut) Provo Knuckledraggers rageeumr Richmond Tigerhawks carlos3652 Springfield Attack bevischief St Joseph Stetsons austinchief Topeka Tyrannicide Allen_kccard Ventura Highways rockchalk Wichita Potheads Confirmed topher79 Spoiler! Anchorage Roadkill Rabbits lostcause Josh Gordon Austin Armadillos noa Lavonte David David Wilson Vick Ballard Cedar Rapids Angry Clam Hammers dj56dt58 Robert Griffin III Harrison Smith Riley Reiff Chula Vista cripplas mrroandro Morris Claiborne Shea McClellin Clearwater Donkeys DJsleftnut Chandler Jones Bruce Irvin Melvin Ingram Dallas K-Swiss Tubes Zeke AIDS Ass Cancer Denver Broncos Wonton prejudice Michael Brockers Dwayne Allen Chris Givens Duluth Pillagers rain man Courtney Upshaw Fort Wayne Dukes jerm Mark Barron Fort Worth Drifters KCChiefsman Doug Martin Mychal Kendricks High Point Knob Hills ChiefAshhole20 Trent Richardson Witney Mercilus Kelechi Osemele Independence Vision cdcox Mitchell Schwartz Kansas City Ball Busters Kyle DeLexus Luke Kuechly Mike Martin Brandon Weeden Las Vegas Lonely Strippers sfchief Fletcher Cox Alfonzo Dennard Overland Park Chiefs Old Dog Matt Kalil Derek Wolfe Pittsburgh Tacos brorth Alfred Morris Kendall Wright AJ Jenkins Portland Rhein Foster: Andrew Luck Cordy Glenn Provo Knuckledraggers rageeumr Justin Blackmon Kevin Zeitler An unemployed Nickle Corner Richmond Tigerhawks carlos3652 Zach Brown Tavon Wilson Josh Robinson Springfield Attack bevischief Ryan Tannehill Dre Kirkpatrick St Joseph Stetsons austinchief Casey Hayward David DeCastro Brandon Taylor Topeka Tyrannicide Allen_kccard Russell Wilson Bernard Pierce Ventura Highways rockchalk Stephon Gilmore Coby Fleener Wichita Potheads Confirmed topher79 Dont'a Hightower Some kicker. Idiot. Last edited by DJ's left nut; 05-24-2013 at 12:35 PM..
Posts: 66,803

08-01-2013, 10:40 PM	#2089
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $930478	That was honestly a shit game from my offense. I had 2 drives worth shit, and one was a 70-yard run by Spiller. I can't believe I'm so anxious over a 10-1 team. I just hate what's happened to my passing game. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,004

08-02-2013, 07:43 AM	#2092
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $-1033560	This sim is just ridiculous some times. This is one drive. 3rd Q 7:53 1st and 10 Overland Park 21 Josh Freeman passes complete to Steve Johnson for a gain of 18 yards. PENALTY. Defensive Pass Interference on Patrick Peterson. 16 yards. Penalty declined. 3rd Q 7:45 1st and 10 Overland Park 39 Josh Freeman passes incomplete, dropped by Jeremy Shockey. 3rd Q 7:38 2nd and 10 Overland Park 39 Josh Freeman passes incomplete to Steve Johnson. PENALTY. Defensive Holding on Stephen Paea. 5 yards. 3rd Q 7:30 1st and 10 Overland Park 44 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes complete to Steve Johnson for a gain of 17 yards. 3rd Q 6:45 1st and 10 Dallas 38 Michael Turner rushes for 3 yards. 3rd Q 6:03 2nd and 7 Dallas 36 Michael Turner rushes for 0 yards. 3rd Q 5:21 3rd and 7 Dallas 36 Josh Freeman (pressured) scrambles for -1 yards. PENALTY. Defensive Holding on Cullen Jenkins. 5 yards. 3rd Q 5:13 1st and 10 Dallas 31 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes incomplete to free agent. PENALTY. Neutral Zone Infraction on James Harrison. 5 yards. 3rd Q 5:05 1st and 5 Dallas 26 Josh Freeman (pressured) passes incomplete to free agent. 3rd Q 4:58 2nd and 5 Dallas 26 Michael Turner rushes for 2 yards. PENALTY. Neutral Zone Infraction on Stephen Paea. 5 yards. 3rd Q 4:50 2nd and inches Dallas 21 Josh Freeman passes complete to Jeremy Shockey for a gain of 22 yards. Touchdown, conversion __________________ Hi.
Posts: 6,451

08-02-2013, 09:42 AM	#2095
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-730901	Boy, Clearwater 'bout got caught being too cute. "Pft...RGIII doesn't scare me. We're selling out to stop the run" Well, stop the run I did - AP did jack and shit. Too bad they put in a bombs away passing offense on me this week. Crabtree cut me up for almost 200 yards receiving. The problem was that I had my base defense set to run bliz like a MFer and Crab was exploiting the hell out of it. That's why I'd love to see the games simmed by halves rather than the whole game. By the 2nd quarter of that game I knew I was in some serious shit and that my gameplan was just flat wrong. But you can't make adjustments so I had to hope for raw talent to trump. Fumbling a snap on first and goal from the 4 didn't help me much, but ultimately Rod Streater's career game was enough to get me the win. For the 2nd time this year an interception in the final minutes inside my own 5 yard line sealed the win. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 66,803

08-02-2013, 01:09 PM	#2099
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $930478	I wonder if that's how that actually works, though. Please try it against me. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,004