Top 10 Offense?

[Mr. Arrowhead]

On NFL Live, they had a debate on whether the Chiefs can be a Top 10 offense, and surprisingly they both thought that we would be in the top 10 in offense. Kind of crazy

[RunKC]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

[RunKC]

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Alex Smith can definitely get to 4,000 passing yards in this offense.

It's gonna depend on one thing though: yards after the catch.

How long have you been here? Don't you knwo those don't count?

[RunKC]

And why the hell does it matter if Alex Smith throws 4,000 yards and 30 TD's a year?

You do know McNabb never threw for 4,000 yards and only made it to 25 TD's or more twice in his 11 years in Philly right?

[O.city]

NFL is different than it was in McNabb's day. People throw the ball around. Spread concepts taking over.


Although I do think there is something coming down the pipe in regards to going big and running over these smaller LB's.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RunKC

And why the hell does it matter if Alex Smith throws 4,000 yards and 30 TD's a year?

That's most likely what we need to win a Super Bowl.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by O.city

NFL is different than it was in McNabb's day. People throw the ball around. Spread concepts taking over.


Although I do think there is something coming down the pipe in regards to going big and running over these smaller LB's.

Runningbacks will only be getting smaller/quicker now with the crown of the helmet rule. The truckstick is out.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Runningbacks will only be getting smaller/quicker now with the crown of the helmet rule. The truckstick is out.

I just don't see how that's enforced. It'll be like the PI call and will be overcalled for a while.


I think teams start going with heavy packages against this smaller faster LB's and light in the pants DL.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by O.city

I just don't see how that's enforced. It'll be like the PI call and will be overcalled for a while.


I think teams start going with heavy packages against this smaller faster LB's and light in the pants DL.

We'll have to see how often it's called this year. It's a ridiculous rule, but we shouldn't have to worry about Jamaal getting into any trouble at least for the sake of our team.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

What was the Alex Smith stats projected over a full 16 games in 2012? I saw it somewhere. Was actually a glimmer of hope.

Edit: Meant Alex Smith stats had he played in Philly offense in 2012 with the 615 attempts.

This?

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I did a linear regression between pass attempts per game and various stats per attempt for Alex. Someone mentioned that Reid typically called 35 passes per game, so I based it on that number.

If you base it on his entire career, you could expect:

3661 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 1 Fumble, and 24 Sacks.

I think Chiefs fans would be very happy with that. However, it is kind of skewed by a horrible rookie season with very few attempts. If you limit it to the last 4 seasons to cover his career after his injury, you get:

3498 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs, 5 Fumbles, and 32 Sacks.

That seems pretty realistic.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

This?

Nah I just found it. Had Smith thrown the ball 616 times in 2012 like Philly did, his numbers would've come out to be 37TDs 14INTS and over 4,800 yards.

We won't be throwing the ball 616 times, so I'm not expecting anything crazy, but I think 25 TD's are something that's possible if we do infact throw a bit more.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Nah I just found it. Had Smith thrown the ball 616 times in 2012 like Philly did, his numbers would've come out to be 37TDs 14INTS and over 4,800 yards.

We won't be throwing the ball 616 times, so I'm not expecting anything crazy, but I think 25 TD's are something that's possible if we do infact throw a bit more.

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

[Hammock Parties]

If you could simply multiply stats, why not throw every down! Yipee!!

[-King-]

Its still kind of surreal that Andy Reid is our head coach. Feels good man.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Just multiplying his stats by 616/218 doesn't really work, though. Smith has shown that the more he is asked to throw, the worse he performs. I feel pretty confident with the 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs prediction.

I agree, it doesn't tell the full story. But it gives people something to think about. He was on pace to finally throw more than 18 TD's in 2012 before he was yanked. But SF coddled him and didn't seem to usually let him throw more than 25 times a game. Had he had a full season at the rate he was going he still likely would've put up about 25 TD's.