Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 11

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Well, when we start 3-7 this year, he'll have a nice 13-19 stretch over the last 32 games. Two full seasons.

CAN'T WAIT.

So, you think you'll revert and delete this post if it doesn't happen, or nah?

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

These promises are empty - we've heard them countless times.

The most amazing thing to me is I've never, since I started watching football in 89, witnessed a QB this intelligent and at the same time this timid.

Smart QB's know when to take that chance down field and when not to. They know when to run and when not to. They know when to throw it away and when to extend it for a few seconds more.

He seems to have everything but the attack mode.

I see this as Phat Andy and Alex in the offseason...

NSFW

It's a safe bet for a couple of reasons, and I agree with everything you said.

But if Alex has to throw enough to get 4500 yards, the Chiefs will be 4-12. And on top of that Alex Smith will be injured from all the hits he is taking.

Also with the Chiefs defense, and Jamal there is just no scenario that requires the Chiefs to need that many yards.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

So, you think you'll revert and delete this post if it doesn't happen, or nah?

I'll just be me.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

It's a safe bet for a couple of reasons, and I agree with everything you said.

But if Alex has to throw enough to get 4500 yards, the Chiefs will be 4-12. And on top of that Alex Smith will be injured from all the hits he is taking.

Also with the Chiefs defense, and Jamal there is just no scenario that requires the Chiefs to need that many yards.

Ok, enough with this.

The Chiefs need those yards, because it will lead to more points and more leads, thus more wins. If turnovers accompany that, so be it. The defense, as you've mentioned, is or should be good enough to make up for it.

So yes, we need those pints and yards

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Well, when we start 3-7 this year, he'll have a nice 13-19 stretch over the last 32 games. Two full seasons.

CAN'T WAIT.

First honest thing you have said. You can't wait for the Chiefs to suck. Because after all. You aren't a Chiefs fan. Just a sad sack of shit excuse for a human being.

Reerun_KC · 08-06-2015, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I have to wonder how these number look just for the last couple of years compared with what the Eagles were doing under Andy. In other words, how much of this is the QB and how much is the system that is being run.

CP 101 is to treat the symptoms while blindy ignoring the disease.

Alex has his faults And pretty much sucks, but Reid on game day sucks the penis dry.

ViperVisor · 08-06-2015, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

10-12 in his last 22.

QB rating last 22 ?

97.4

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Ok, enough with this.

The Chiefs need those yards, because it will lead to more points and more leads, thus more wins. If turnovers accompany that, so be it. The defense, as you've mentioned, is or should be good enough to make up for it.

So yes, we need those pints and yards

Bro. The Chiefs defense is going to be epically strong. The Chiefs are going to have the lead a lot. They are going to have the short field a lot.

It's not an insult but I'd rather have a team that spends the 4th quarter running the ball because they have the lead. That's going to happen a lot this year.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

Bro. The Chiefs defense is going to be epically strong. The Chiefs are going to have the lead a lot. They are going to have the short field a lot.

It's not an insult but I'd rather have a team that spends the 4th quarter running the ball because they have the lead. That's going to happen a lot this year.

And it's easier to get said lead by aggressively throwing the ball.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

First honest thing you have said. You can't wait for the Chiefs to suck. Because after all. You aren't a Chiefs fan. Just a sad sack of shit excuse for a human being.

Huge Chiefs fan.

We require a cleansing fire.

I root for devastation, and the new birth it brings.

We must burn the tick out with a hot match. If the skin gets burned, so be it. It will regenerate.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

CP 101 is to treat the symptoms while blindy ignore the disease.

Alex has his faults And pretty much sucks, but Reid on game day sucks the penis dry.

The problem is he doesn't suck. He's just average. Just good enough not to get replaced.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

QB rating last 22 ?

97.4

A lie.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

And it's easier to get said lead by aggressively throwing the ball.

It's not going to happen......

O.city · 08-06-2015, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

It's not going to happen......

Someone should tell the coaching staff and front office this then. They've tried to put the pieces in the offense to have it happen so....

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Huge Chiefs fan.

We require a cleansing fire.

I root for devastation, and the new birth it brings.

We must burn the tick out with a hot match. If the skin gets burned, so be it. It will regenerate.

You're not a Chiefs fan.

This Chiefs roster today is ridiculously deep and talented. Yet you root for it to fail all because they don't have the qb you want. You're pathetic.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1251379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
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