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Old 10-24-2013, 10:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs
Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 11-21-2013, 01:49 PM   #151
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This.
Though the Saints are not "awful" on the road, they will be IN Seattle.
The Saints beat the Bucs by 2 points on the road. They lost to the Jets and Patriots and beat the Bears by 6.

The Saints score an average of 33 points at home to only 22 points on the road, which is an eleven point differential.

While "suck" on the road may be an exaggeration, they clearly aren't the same team as they are at home.
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Old 11-21-2013, 01:54 PM   #152
ThaVirus ThaVirus is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
The Saints beat the Bucs by 2 points on the road. They lost to the Jets and Patriots and beat the Bears by 6.

The Saints score an average of 33 points at home to only 22 points on the road, which is an eleven point differential.

While "suck" on the road may be an exaggeration, they clearly aren't the same team as they are at home.
Brees' TD:INT ratio at home compared to on the road is also pretty staggering.

To win the Super Bowl, I'd say my favorites have to be Seattle, Denver, New England, New Orleans, Kansas City, and Carolina- in that order.
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Old 11-21-2013, 01:57 PM   #153
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As strange as it sounds, I like the Packers as a dark horse if they're somehow able to squeak into the playoffs without Rodgers and get him back just in time to make a run.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:04 PM   #154
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
The Saints beat the Bucs by 2 points on the road. They lost to the Jets and Patriots and beat the Bears by 6.

The Saints score an average of 33 points at home to only 22 points on the road, which is an eleven point differential.

While "suck" on the road may be an exaggeration, they clearly aren't the same team as they are at home.
Seattle isn't great away from home though, either.

Whoever gets homefield between the Hawks and the Saints is going to win the NFCC.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:04 PM   #155
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That Packer D is pretty porous.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:06 PM   #156
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That Packer D is pretty porous.
It's not crazy bad and has been without Matthews for some time now. They've showed they're capable of pulling it all together at the right time in the past and now they have a pretty good running game.

I can understand the hesitation; it's really just a feeling I have.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:16 PM   #157
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:18 PM   #158
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Seattle isn't great away from home though, either.

Whoever gets homefield between the Hawks and the Saints is going to win the NFCC.
Great? Maybe not great but they are 5-1 on the road.

The Seahawks have a Bye this weekend and face the Saints at home on December 2nd. That game will likely have a huge impact on home field advantage.

The 'Hawks have five games left: Two on the road (NY Giants, SF) and three at home (NO, Arizona and St. Louis). It's likely they'll finish at least 13-3 and have home field throughout the playoffs.

New Orleans still has Seattle on the road, Carolina at home and on the road, Atlanta on the road and St. Louis and the Bucs at home. At 8-2, they'll need to win out to wrestle home field from Seattle.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:18 PM   #159
Discuss Thrower Discuss Thrower is offline
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And if I understand this correctly, after beating Cleveland and Buffalo, losing to Denver lowered KC's odds of winning the Superbowl by 5.4%.

How awesome is that.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:22 PM   #160
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Great? Maybe not great but they are 5-1 on the road.

The Seahawks have a Bye this weekend and face the Saints at home on December 2nd. That game will likely have a huge impact on home field advantage.

The 'Hawks have five games left: Two on the road (NY Giants, SF) and three at home (NO, Arizona and St. Louis). It's likely they'll finish at least 13-3 and have home field throughout the playoffs.

New Orleans still has Seattle on the road, Carolina at home and on the road, Atlanta on the road and St. Louis and the Bucs at home. At 8-2, they'll need to win out to wrestle home field from Seattle.
Seattle certainly has the inside track. And I never said they suck on the road, they're just not damn-near invincible like they are at home.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:28 PM   #161
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Seattle certainly has the inside track. And I never said they suck on the road, they're just not damn-near invincible like they are at home.
They've had some iffy home games in the last month or 6 weeks, too.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:28 PM   #162
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Seattle certainly has the inside track. And I never said they suck on the road, they're just not damn-near invincible like they are at home.
Oh, I know.

Plus, that travel is a bitch for any team in the southeast part of the country.

Case in point: The Seahawks were virtually sleep walking in the first half of the Divisional game earlier this year against Atlanta. If they had even scored even a field goal in the first half, they would have played in SF for the NFC title.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:31 PM   #163
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All I know is either way the Chiefs are going to be boned by whatever scenario happens.. namely in having to face Denver again in Mile High in the remote chance they actually win a playoff game.
If the Chiefs get the five seed that means that they in all likelihood have lost to Denver twice. I don't think Denver would be comfortable having to beat them a third time, so that would be a game I would look for the Chiefs to win.

But I think the Chiefs will be back in first place in the division with two straight wins after these next two weeks so I am not too concerned with that scenario.
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:32 PM   #164
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cdcox,

What does your sim say the chances are of the Chiefs going 2-0 in the next two weeks?
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Old 11-21-2013, 02:37 PM   #165
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If the Chiefs get the five seed that means that they in all likelihood have lost to Denver twice. I don't think Denver would be comfortable having to beat them a third time, so that would be a game I would look for the Chiefs to win.

But I think the Chiefs will be back in first place in the division with two straight wins after these next two weeks so I am not too concerned with that scenario.
Just as long as we don't finish 13-3.
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