Chiefs 2014 Playoff prediction thread - Page 11

**cdcox** · 07:36 PM

It looks like we will be in the thick of the playoff race for the rest of the season. So I'll keep an updated prognosis of our chances in this thread. These are made with my software, available here: http://nfl-forecast.com

After week 8:
Chances of winning the division: 10%
Chances of making the playoffs: 52%
Median number of projected wins: 9

After week 9:
Chances of winning the division: 19%
Chances of making the playoffs: 57%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 10:
Chances of winning the division: 17%
Chances of making the playoffs: 71%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 11:
Chances of winning the division: 36%
Chances of making the playoffs: 82%
Median number of projected wins: 11

Coogs · 11-13-2014, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Why did our division percent drop!

Denver's win was in the division too. Record in the division is one of the top criteria in breaking ties to determine a division winner.

ThaVirus · 11-13-2014, 10:18 AM

How shitty would it be if we ended up with the same record as the Broncos and still ended up getting the lower seed because of that damned Titans game?

**** me.

**cdcox** · 11-16-2014, 03:30 PM

Interim Week 11 forecast:

Chances of winning the division: 30%
Chances of making the playoffs: 80%
Median number of projected wins: 10

**DaFace** · 11-16-2014, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Interim Week 11 forecast:

Chances of winning the division: 30%
Chances of making the playoffs: 80%
Median number of projected wins: 10

Another MASSIVE week in terms of our playoff chances.

Direckshun · 11-17-2014, 12:01 AM

If the season ended now.

1st seed, bye: New England Patriots
2nd seed, bye: Denver Broncos

In the divisionals:

Chiefs would visit Colts
Dolphins would visit Bengals

I gotta say, I like us more than all three of the teams in the 1st round, Colts included.

I hope Pittsburgh stays out.

**DaFace** · 11-17-2014, 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

If the season ended now.

1st seed, bye: New England Patriots
2nd seed, bye: Denver Broncos

In the divisionals:

Chiefs would visit Colts
Dolphins would visit Bengals

I gotta say, I like us more than all three of the teams in the 1st round, Colts included.

I hope Pittsburgh stays out.

God, I hope we don't end up playing the Colts. I couldn't take another ****ing playoff loss to that damn team.

chiefzilla1501 · 11-17-2014, 12:32 AM

Good lord, the Falcons are in first place

Are you ****ing kidding me?

The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They're in first place

**** me

jonzie04 · 11-17-2014, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Good lord, the Falcons are in first place

Are you ****ing kidding me?

The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They're in first place

**** me

That whole division has the aids.

RunKC · 11-19-2014, 11:09 AM

I think the Dolphins will get an angry Denver team this week, so if we take care of business we have a 2 game + tiebreaker lead.

SD has a brutal schedule including BAL, NE, SF, KC to end the season. They won't make it.

CLE is on the road in ATL, the goes to BUF, then plays IND and finished with 2 division games vs CIN and BAL. I don't thin they'll make it.

Holy hell CIN plays at HOU and then finishes vs CLE, DEN and PIT 2x.

BAL is very likely to lose this weekend in NO. They also play MIA.

I think this will be the seedings:

1. NE
2. DEN
3. IND
4. PIT
5. KC
6. CIN

Going to Pit will be tough.

kcpasco · 11-19-2014, 11:18 AM

As long as it's not the Colts in the 1st round I could care less who the Chiefs play.

Coogs · 11-19-2014, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think the Dolphins will get an angry Denver team this week, so if we take care of business we have a 2 game + tiebreaker lead.

SD has a brutal schedule including BAL, NE, SF, KC to end the season. They won't make it.

CLE is on the road in ATL, the goes to BUF, then plays IND and finished with 2 division games vs CIN and BAL. I don't thin they'll make it.

Holy hell CIN plays at HOU and then finishes vs CLE, DEN and PIT 2x.

BAL is very likely to lose this weekend in NO. They also play MIA.

I think this will be the seedings:

1. NE
2. DEN
3. IND
4. PIT
5. KC
6. CIN

Going to Pit will be tough.

So you have us with at 2 game lead on Denver with 4 games to go... and we wind up as the 5 seed. Gone to be an ugly last 4 weeks if that happens.

MagicHef · 11-19-2014, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

So you have us with at 2 game lead on Denver with 4 games to go... and we wind up as the 5 seed. Gone to be an ugly last 4 weeks if that happens.

2 game lead on Miami, not Denver.

Coogs · 11-19-2014, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

2 game lead on Miami, not Denver.

Okay, makes more sense.

**DaFace** · 11-19-2014, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think the Dolphins will get an angry Denver team this week, so if we take care of business we have a 2 game + tiebreaker lead.

SD has a brutal schedule including BAL, NE, SF, KC to end the season. They won't make it.

CLE is on the road in ATL, the goes to BUF, then plays IND and finished with 2 division games vs CIN and BAL. I don't thin they'll make it.

Holy hell CIN plays at HOU and then finishes vs CLE, DEN and PIT 2x.

BAL is very likely to lose this weekend in NO. They also play MIA.

I think this will be the seedings:

1. NE
2. DEN
3. IND
4. PIT
5. KC
6. CIN

Going to Pit will be tough.

I'm a sucker for the stats-based methods like seedy's, so here's the full table from his software (assuming I clicked all the games from last week right):

Given that guidance, I think I'd predict that we'll end up with:

1. NE
2. DEN
3. PIT
4. IND
5. KC
6. MIA

Which would put us playing the ****ing Colts again. I'd much rather have the Steelers.

ThaVirus · 11-19-2014, 01:01 PM

I'm still hoping for the 1st or 2nd seed but if were saddled with the 5th then bring on those ****ing douchebag Colts.

You HAVE to think our guys would have a serious bone to pick with them.

Assuming we go into that game with a healthy Charles, Houston and Hali we'll ****ing throttle those entitled bitches.

Plus, they don't have Mathis. He sparked their comeback last season with that strip sack.

11-01-2014, 07:04 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1331769	2014 Playoff prediction thread It looks like we will be in the thick of the playoff race for the rest of the season. So I'll keep an updated prognosis of our chances in this thread. These are made with my software, available here: http://nfl-forecast.com After week 8: Chances of winning the division: 10% Chances of making the playoffs: 52% Median number of projected wins: 9 After week 9: Chances of winning the division: 19% Chances of making the playoffs: 57% Median number of projected wins: 10 After week 10: Chances of winning the division: 17% Chances of making the playoffs: 71% Median number of projected wins: 10 After week 11: Chances of winning the division: 36% Chances of making the playoffs: 82% Median number of projected wins: 11 Last edited by cdcox; 11-19-2014 at 07:36 PM..
Posts: 45,661

11-13-2014, 10:18 AM	#152
ThaVirus Grand champ Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $582369	How shitty would it be if we ended up with the same record as the Broncos and still ended up getting the lower seed because of that damned Titans game? **** me.
Posts: 45,372

11-16-2014, 03:30 PM	#153
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1331769	Interim Week 11 forecast: Chances of winning the division: 30% Chances of making the playoffs: 80% Median number of projected wins: 10
Posts: 45,661

11-17-2014, 12:01 AM	#155
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $3583447	If the season ended now. 1st seed, bye: New England Patriots 2nd seed, bye: Denver Broncos In the divisionals: Chiefs would visit Colts Dolphins would visit Bengals I gotta say, I like us more than all three of the teams in the 1st round, Colts included. I hope Pittsburgh stays out.
Posts: 59,422

11-17-2014, 12:32 AM	#157
chiefzilla1501 In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $604497	Good lord, the Falcons are in first place Are you **ing kidding me? The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They're in first place ** me
Posts: 49,266

11-19-2014, 11:09 AM	#159
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $769611	I think the Dolphins will get an angry Denver team this week, so if we take care of business we have a 2 game + tiebreaker lead. SD has a brutal schedule including BAL, NE, SF, KC to end the season. They won't make it. CLE is on the road in ATL, the goes to BUF, then plays IND and finished with 2 division games vs CIN and BAL. I don't thin they'll make it. Holy hell CIN plays at HOU and then finishes vs CLE, DEN and PIT 2x. BAL is very likely to lose this weekend in NO. They also play MIA. I think this will be the seedings: 1. NE 2. DEN 3. IND 4. PIT 5. KC 6. CIN Going to Pit will be tough. __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Jared Wiley
Posts: 47,716

11-19-2014, 11:18 AM	#160
kcpasco MVP Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $6973463	As long as it's not the Colts in the 1st round I could care less who the Chiefs play.
Posts: 15,709

11-19-2014, 01:01 PM	#165
ThaVirus Grand champ Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $582369	I'm still hoping for the 1st or 2nd seed but if were saddled with the 5th then bring on those **ing douchebag Colts. You HAVE to think our guys would have a serious bone to pick with them. Assuming we go into that game with a healthy Charles, Houston and Hali we'll **ing throttle those entitled bitches. Plus, they don't have Mathis. He sparked their comeback last season with that strip sack.
Posts: 45,372