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04-28-2015, 10:38 AM | #1696 |
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KC had saved 24 runs against CLE -13 runs coming into yesterday according to the telecast...
that's a 37 run differential in less than 20 games ...this is why PECOTA and FANGRAPHS and other ranking systems don't work yet 37 runs in 18 games ... slightly over 2 a game difference if we play Cleveland 162 times and the game starts at 2.1 - 0 our lead ... how many do we win? 125? 120? |
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04-28-2015, 11:31 AM | #1697 |
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K'd Davis didn't even throw a ball last night. Soooo nasty.
http://gfycat.com/NauticalSomeGrasshopper |
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04-28-2015, 11:32 AM | #1698 | |
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Isn't it safe to assume any given MLB team with a 2-0 head start in everygame wins 50-60% of the time...?
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04-28-2015, 11:33 AM | #1699 |
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If we won 50-60% of games where we were spotted a 2-0 lead, I would be sad.
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04-28-2015, 11:36 AM | #1700 |
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04-28-2015, 11:38 AM | #1701 |
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but that's against the 28th worst defense in baseball (so far)...
Against an ok defense we probably would start out at 0.7 - 0. Cleveland has just had a really, really, really poor defense to start the year (-13 DRS) |
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04-28-2015, 11:49 AM | #1702 |
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Just going off a wild ass guess. I'd assume the win rate for a team with a 2-0 headstart would be a few percentage points better than the win rate for a team that enters the bottom 1st with a 2-0 advantage and I don't know that specific rate.
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04-28-2015, 11:55 AM | #1703 | |
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There are no games where the home team is winning in the top of the first because that is impossible, but when the home team is winning 2-0 in the bottom of the first with the bases clear and no out, the home team goes on to win 75.5% of the time. (398 out of 527) So, if we're spotted a 2-0 lead, I'd hope for about 70%
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04-28-2015, 11:56 AM | #1704 | |
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04-28-2015, 11:57 AM | #1705 |
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Oh, and someone PM Hamas and tell him that Aaron Crow only has two pitches.
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04-28-2015, 11:59 AM | #1706 |
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Oh, and if the visiting team is winning 2-0 in the bottom of the first with the bases clear and no out, they win the game 62.0% of the time. Makes sense that its less than in the top of the first since you are eliminating the possibility of piling on more runs in the first.
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04-28-2015, 12:01 PM | #1707 | |
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Your son is a bench warmer because of your weak genetics not because of the coach Norlin Mommsen is disgusting. |
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04-28-2015, 12:14 PM | #1708 |
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Here's the gif version:
I guess we'll get beaned for that swag tomorrow. Can't show emotion - even if you make a great pitch. Gotta play the game right - in a joyless funk. |
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04-28-2015, 12:37 PM | #1709 |
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I love how he doesn't even have to look. As soon as it leaves his hands, he knows it's a strike.
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04-28-2015, 12:44 PM | #1710 |
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OT: Hootie, that fanduel thread in CasinoPlanet is dying.
Help me out man! |
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