Top 10 Offense?

[Mr. Arrowhead]

On NFL Live, they had a debate on whether the Chiefs can be a Top 10 offense, and surprisingly they both thought that we would be in the top 10 in offense. Kind of crazy

[BossChief]

Alex Smith has been a 65% passer the last two years and hef inputs his math and all of a sudden Alex is barely a 50% passer.

Haha

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Alex Smith has been a 65% passer the last two years and hef inputs his math and all of a sudden Alex is barely a 50% passer.

Haha

Exactly!

[BossChief]

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by BossChief

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

Here's his completion percentage vs attempts for the last 2 years. Tell me what happens when Reid asks him to throw 56 times.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by BossChief

In 2012, Alex had 3 games where he attempted 30+ passes.
He completed 65%, 69% and 63% comp%.

In 2011, he had 8 games with 30+ attempts.

67
64
53
63
53
49
58
67

So, out of 11 games the last season and a half with 30+ attempts, he has only had 4 with less than 60% completions and somehow hef figures it at barely 50%.

That's some donkey math

He said he was using his whole career. That in itself makes no sense, and Smith appears to have turned things around the last couple of years. Pretty much right at the point in their careers most of the resident QB guru's say is the make or break point for young QB's.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Here's his completion percentage vs attempts for the last 2 years. Tell me what happens when Reid asks him to throw 56 times.

One could argue your placement of the line of best fit. After you get past the 1-1, 7-8, and 18-19 games you are using as your starting point... there is no real correlation for a line of best fit unless you run it straight back and forth through the low to mid 60's.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Coogs

One could argue your placement of the line of best fit. After you get past the 1-1, 7-8, and 18-19 games you are using as your starting point... there is no real correlation fro a line of best fit unless you run it straight back and forth through the mid 60's.

It's least squares. Mathematically, it is the best fit for this set of data.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

It's least squares. Mathematically, it is the best fit for this set of data.

With the 1-1 and 7-8 games being thrown in, yes. But the 1-1 game he didn't start, and the 7-8 game was when he went out early with the concussion against the Rams. Kind of skews the data set.

[Mav]

Just gonna throw this out there. Having Greg Roman as his play caller, and Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, revealed who Alex Smith has the potential to be. Having Andy Reid is not going to hurt that. He threw 70 percent last year, hes not going to hit that, he will be asked to take more chances, hes not going to dip below, 63 percent completions though. Hes too smart with the ball for that, and if he relies on the short check downs to Charles, then well, that percentage could stay high. And don't give me this check down bullshit. Yes, its a shame to get the ball to Jamaal fricking Charles in space. What a stupid Idea that is......

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by Maverick91579

Just gonna throw this out there. Having Greg Roman as his play caller, and Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, revealed who Alex Smith has the potential to be. Having Andy Reid is not going to hurt that. He threw 70 percent last year, hes not going to hit that, he will be asked to take more chances, hes not going to dip below, 63 percent completions though. Hes too smart with the ball for that, and if he relies on the short check downs to Charles, then well, that percentage could stay high. And don't give me this check down bullshit. Yes, its a shame to get the ball to Jamaal fricking Charles in space. What a stupid Idea that is......

I'm just excited to see Jamaal catching the ball more often this year. We could be killing teams with the screen pass this year. I have no idea why the screen was so rarely used with Jamaal.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Coogs

With the 1-1 and 7-8 games being thrown in, yes. But the 1-1 game he didn't start, and the 7-8 game was when he went out early with the concussion against the Rams. Kind of skews the data set.

Fair point. Taking out those 2 games increases it from 50.8% to 54%.

[BossChief]

There are only 2 games where he completed less than 50% of his passes and only 9 where he completed less than 60%. 16 where he was above 60% and 8 above 70%.

Your 50-54% stuff is pure donk nonsense.

[beach tribe]

I got a neutral rep from knowmo going off about how Charles is no Westbrook.

Well, he's right.

Charles has infinitely more potential.
He is a Home Run threat every time he touches the
ball.
And he's about to get it........in space.........a lot.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Fair point. Taking out those 2 games increases it from 50.8% to 54%.

Now throw out your outlier game of 18-19. Then re run your line of best fit and see what you get? Repost your line of best fit without those three games. I'm interested to see the result.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

I'm just excited to see Jamaal catching the ball more often this year. We could be killing teams with the screen pass this year. I have no idea why the screen was so rarely used with Jamaal.

It's because our awesome staff was able utilize our players strengths and weaknesses and recognized early on that he would struggle with it.