Top 10 Offense?

[Mr. Arrowhead]

On NFL Live, they had a debate on whether the Chiefs can be a Top 10 offense, and surprisingly they both thought that we would be in the top 10 in offense. Kind of crazy

[BossChief]

I'd also like to point out that JHs offense isnt very similar to what Reid runs.

JHs offense has a lot of designed runs and play action. Reid is a lot more WCO where those designed runs are turned into swing passes, screens and dump offs.

I expect Alexs % to hover around 65% on the year while his ypa drops about a half yard.

550-575 passes
65%
7.6 ypa
2:1+ td:int ratio

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd also like to point out that JHs offense isnt very similar to what Reid runs.

JHs offense has a lot of designed runs and play action. Reid is a lot more WCO where those designed runs are turned into swing passes, screens and dump offs.

I expect Alexs % to hover around 65% on the year while his ypa drops about a half yard.

550-575 passes
65%
7.6 ypa
2:1+ td:int ratio

I'll go with that, except I expect the TD:INT ratio to be 2+:1 instead of 2:1+

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Coogs

I'll go with that, except I expect the TD:INT ratio to be 2+:1 instead of 2:1+

That's actually what I meant by that.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Coogs

Now throw out your outlier game of 18-19. Then re run your line of best fit and see what you get? Repost your line of best fit without those three games. I'm interested to see the result.

56% now

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by BossChief

There are only 2 games where he completed less than 50% of his passes and only 9 where he completed less than 60%. 16 where he was above 60% and 8 above 70%.

Your 50-54% stuff is pure donk nonsense.

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

I don't like Alex Smith, but I would be willing to bet that changes this year.

Care to make a wager?

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

He also has zero games above 57% where he threw more than 35 times.

Those three games?

[Garcia Bronco]

Chiefs game will be more chess match than it ever has in the past half decade. I think it's possible as well. Definitely top 15.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That's actually what I meant by that.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I don't like Alex Smith, but I would be willing to bet that changes this year.

Care to make a wager?

I'm open to bets, but that one seems a bit odd.

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

Those three games?

Yes

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

Chiefs game will be more chess match than it ever has in the past half decade. I think it's possible as well. Definitely top 15.

I think the expectation level should be an average offense. 10-20 range.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

56% now

Still think your line is a little steep in the negative direction. Not saying the slope should be positive, but definitely flatter. In fact the points are almost scattered enough where there is no real correlation... and if there was one it still should be horizontal through the low to mid 60's.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Coogs

Still think your line is a little steep in the negative direction. Not saying the slope should be positive, but definitely flatter. In fact the points are almost scattered enough where there is no real correlation... and if there was one it still should be horizontal through the low to mid 60's.

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

If it don't fit, you must acquit

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

You understand that I'm not choosing the line, right? That line is the best mathematical fit, determined by the smallest cumulative area formed by squares made between each point and the nearest point on the line. If we changed the line, the cumulative area of the squares would grow, indicating a poorer fit.

Yeah. I just don't agree with it. Hell, if the trend continued, if he threw a 100 passes in a game, he would be lucky to complete any. Especially on your f8irst one.