Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 16

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Prison Bitch · 07-17-2015, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

PB, you realize you can begin rehabbing torn muscles immediately, right?

He wasn't rehabbing Tues night. Now you get my point. I assume.

BWillie · 07-17-2015, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

I get that, i'm not sure I completely agree with it, but I certainly get it. I just don't understand people dismissing what Duffy did last year, as if it never happened.

It doesn't make sense to me either. We have Duffy for THIS YEAR AND TWO MORE YEARS. I find it odd that people cite this season as the reason they want to get rid of Duffy. His results this year are a drop in the bucket compared to the 150 IP he pitched last year at a 2.5 ERA. He hasn't even been left in the rotation and allowed to get into any grove yet either. His ERA is only 4.6 this year as it is.

When I look at baseball, I look at probabilities. Even if you get Cueto, your odds of winning the World Series really don't go up enough. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you have a 15% chance to win the WS without Cueto, and you trade Duffy and all these prospects for him, your WS chance might go up to say 20%. That's not enough value to gain a negligible chance of winning it all. Never put your eggs in once basket. If the right trade comes about, go for it, but I would keep in mind this year AND the next two years when doing it.

Prison Bitch · 07-17-2015, 11:05 AM

Yes, aces don't add a ton of probability to your odds.

No, Danny Duffy isn't that valuable a commodity.

duncan_idaho · 07-17-2015, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

It doesn't make sense to me either. We have Duffy for THIS YEAR AND TWO MORE YEARS. I find it odd that people cite this season as the reason they want to get rid of Duffy. His results this year are a drop in the bucket compared to the 150 IP he pitched last year at a 2.5 ERA. He hasn't even been left in the rotation and allowed to get into any grove yet either. His ERA is only 4.6 this year as it is.

When I look at baseball, I look at probabilities. Even if you get Cueto, your odds of winning the World Series really don't go up enough. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you have a 15% chance to win the WS without Cueto, and you trade Duffy and all these prospects for him, your WS chance might go up to say 20%. That's not enough value to gain a negligible chance of winning it all. Never put your eggs in once basket. If the right trade comes about, go for it, but I would keep in mind this year AND the next two years when doing it.

I don't think anyone WANTS to trade Duffy. People have just discussed the possibility.

I guarantee you that if he IS moved, it's because the team doesn't believe he can consistently produce the way he did last season.

His results THIS season matter because they're similar to the results he produced as a big-leaguer prior to 2014. Because it's another dip in the roller coaster track... and because they're a sign that, perhaps, Duffy is going to do this for the rest of his career.

Discuss Thrower · 07-17-2015, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I don't think anyone WANTS to trade Duffy. People have just discussed the possibility.

I guarantee you that if he IS moved, it's because the team doesn't believe he can consistently produce the way he did last season.

His results THIS season matter because they're similar to the results he produced as a big-leaguer prior to 2014. Because it's another dip in the roller coaster track... and because they're a sign that, perhaps, Duffy is going to do this for the rest of his career.

If Duffy is considered to be worth trading at some point because he doesn't have the stuff to be the starter KC needs....

.... what if they made him into Wade Davis II: Bearded Boogaloo?

Prison Bitch · 07-17-2015, 11:15 AM

Trading for Cueto might only take your odds from 15% to 20%, but dropping the Duffman does the same. So net/net you prob go from 10% to 20% in that scenario

Jerm · 07-17-2015, 11:19 AM

I love Cueto and would be fine with us trading for him but I'm kinda more intrigued by trying to swing a Shields/Upton combo deal....if that's even possible...

C3HIEF3S · 07-17-2015, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Absolutely false. I was just told that Alex could not go to Cinci because he was "re-habbing". So this story is bunk

....
@goldbergkc: Alex Gordon is here. Started laser treatment & walking on pool treadmill during break. Says w/huge grin that starts upper body lifting today

chiefqueen · 07-17-2015, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

You want us to lose by 5+ today in 1 game?

I would also think he pitches late if we are up by 8 or 9 runs.

**alnorth** · 07-17-2015, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

the fact that you don't recognize that Cueto is like a Bumgarner and Duffy is a guy who can't even make a postseason rotation is alarming

Cueto, with our park and our defense, would be the best pitcher we've had since Greinke won his Cy Young.

Cueto pitches in Cincy, a HR derby ballpark, and hasn't sniffed a 3 ERA in years. Not only that, he's a guy who will pitch 7-8 innings every time out with our defense behind him.

He's a no brainer.

And the simple fact we have people who think Danny Duffy will net us Johnny Cueto is hilarious to me. And the fact some people wouldn't trade Duffy to get Cueto back is even more hilarious to me.

We are not 100% guaranteed to win when he starts and we are not 100% guaranteed to lose when his replacement starts. Also, you don't improve our game 2 and 3 situation at all.

Now, if we had a stable of pretty good pitchers but nobody is great, lets say 3 or 4 guys who can give you a decent or pretty good start, then swapping one for an Ace makes a whole lot more sense.

We don't have that. We have maybe 2 acceptable pitchers right now. If you make this trade, then if Cueto doesn't win every single damned time he starts, we're toast because game 3 probably looks bad unless we're matched against another team with SP problems. We need Duffy or someone like him for game 3 to give us a chance every time out.

Sure-Oz · 07-17-2015, 11:28 AM

Brewers willing to trade Carlos Gomez per Jon Heyman. Makes 8 mill this year...9 mill next year.

Hootie · 07-17-2015, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

....
@goldbergkc: Alex Gordon is here. Started laser treatment & walking on pool treadmill during break. Says w/huge grin that starts upper body lifting today

I don't think he understands that "tearing" a hamstring or "tearing" a groin is different than breaking a bone.

**alnorth** · 07-17-2015, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

It doesn't make sense to me either. We have Duffy for THIS YEAR AND TWO MORE YEARS. I find it odd that people cite this season as the reason they want to get rid of Duffy. His results this year are a drop in the bucket compared to the 150 IP he pitched last year at a 2.5 ERA. He hasn't even been left in the rotation and allowed to get into any grove yet either. His ERA is only 4.6 this year as it is.

When I look at baseball, I look at probabilities. Even if you get Cueto, your odds of winning the World Series really don't go up enough. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you have a 15% chance to win the WS without Cueto, and you trade Duffy and all these prospects for him, your WS chance might go up to say 20%. That's not enough value to gain a negligible chance of winning it all. Never put your eggs in once basket. If the right trade comes about, go for it, but I would keep in mind this year AND the next two years when doing it.

For the sake of argument I'm even willing to forget about the next two years, but people are acting like we have 4 Danny Duffy's and we can upgrade one of them. We don't.

If we trade Danny for Cueto, then how do we win game 3 or 6? We need to ADD someone, not REPLACE Duffy.

Hootie · 07-17-2015, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

We are not 100% guaranteed to win when he starts and we are not 100% guaranteed to lose when his replacement starts. Also, you don't improve our game 2 and 3 situation at all.

Now, if we had a stable of pretty good pitchers but nobody is great, lets say 3 or 4 guys who can give you a decent or pretty good start, then swapping one for an Ace makes a whole lot more sense.

We don't have that. We have maybe 2 acceptable pitchers right now. If you make this trade, then if Cueto doesn't win every single damned time he starts, we're toast because game 3 probably looks bad unless we're matched against another team with SP problems. We need Duffy or someone like him for game 3 to give us a chance every time out.

What are you talking about?

Would Danny Duffy even make our postseason rotation?

A rotation of :

Cueto / Volquez / Ventura / WHOEVER

is a hell of a lot better than

Volquez / Ventura / WHOEVER / WHOEVER

...and you're totally discounting the fact that Cueto, with our defense, is the best pitcher the Royals have seen since Greinke won his Cy Young, and before that, since the Royals of the 80's.

Cueto, with our defense and ballpark, is legitimately a guy who could carry our team if our sporadic offense wasn't clicking for 3 games in a 7 game series (a la Bumgarner).

Not only that, but the dude is a 1/2 season rental and would be a lock to go 7-8 innings, if not 9, every start. He's done it the last 5 years in Cincy playing in a HR derby park.

...if the price is Danny Duffy and Brandon Finnegan (and it's not, it's going to take a WHOLE LOT MORE), this isn't even a question. It's the biggest no brainer trade I've ever seen.

Unsmooth-Moment · 07-17-2015, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

For the sake of argument I'm even willing to forget about the next two years, but people are acting like we have 4 Danny Duffy's and we can upgrade one of them. We don't.

If we trade Danny for Cueto, then how do we win game 3 or 6? We need to ADD someone, not REPLACE Duffy.

Yup. Having Vargas, Young, or Guthrie start a game in New York or Houston could be pretty scary.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1979692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,388

07-17-2015, 11:05 AM	#228
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Yes, aces don't add a ton of probability to your odds. No, Danny Duffy isn't that valuable a commodity.
Posts: 87,025

07-17-2015, 11:15 AM	#231
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Trading for Cueto might only take your odds from 15% to 20%, but dropping the Duffman does the same. So net/net you prob go from 10% to 20% in that scenario
Posts: 87,025

07-17-2015, 11:19 AM	#232
Jerm Mahomes > God Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Clinton, MO Casino cash: $4458996	I love Cueto and would be fine with us trading for him but I'm kinda more intrigued by trying to swing a Shields/Upton combo deal....if that's even possible...
Posts: 10,212