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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 06-15-2017, 01:30 PM   #2416
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Oh, and I agree about Karns. When the team was pretty quiet about him several days ago, I thought, "Uh-oh."
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Old 06-15-2017, 01:37 PM   #2417
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I think so. A playoff appearance in hand is better than a potential playoff appearance in the bush.

If they sell, KC needs to sell for best player available, not its best available that is close to MLB, IMO. You start looking only at guys who are at AA and higher, and the quality of return will dip.

Example:

If Kansas City trades Moustakas to Boston, they're not getting Rafael Devers, so you're talking about second tier prospects from that system (still good, but Devers is top 10 and near MLB-ready).

Insisting on a "close" player means Sam Travis is the type of return you're getting. He's a solid player but not going to be a star (in all likelihood). If you open up to anyone in the system, you could get someone like Michael Chavis, who has all-star potential but is farther away from the majors.


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Do you think the Royals could do a partial sell because the return offered is just too good to pass up. Example, they trade Vargas, the starting rotation would still be decent;

Duffy (Assuming he completely healthy)
Kennedy (if he returns to pre-injury ablility)
Hammel (pitching very well lately)
Karns (pitching well before injury)
Junis / Straghm / Skogland (I'm impressed by Junis)
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Old 06-15-2017, 02:19 PM   #2418
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Do you think the Royals could do a partial sell because the return offered is just too good to pass up. Example, they trade Vargas, the starting rotation would still be decent;



Duffy (Assuming he completely healthy)

Kennedy (if he returns to pre-injury ablility)

Hammel (pitching very well lately)

Karns (pitching well before injury)

Junis / Straghm / Skogland (I'm impressed by Junis)

It would have to be a pretty damn impressive return that helped right away in another area of weakness.

I could see them moving Herrera to Washington for a SP before moving Vargas.


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Old 06-15-2017, 02:22 PM   #2419
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It would have to be a pretty damn impressive return that helped right away in another area of weakness.

I could see them moving Herrera to Washington for a SP before moving Vargas.


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I can't let go of the fact the Royals get nothing for Vargas and Minor if they are not traded. And DM has shown he wants to win now but also plan for the future,
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:01 PM   #2420
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Here's how I think it plays out. This is just my best guess. I'm going to use the AS break as my reference point but you can push the math to the trade deadline if you wish. I believe the Royals have 23 games prior to the AS break. I think for them to keep the band together, they need a 17-6 or 16-7 type run. In all likelihood, that puts KC in 1st for the division or within a WC spot. At that point, it's the right move to "go for it" one more time by keeping everyone. Some have even insinuated that we add a pitcher. I'm just not sure what ammo we have for that? Anyway, I think being "in it" or 3-4 games out is not going to be enough. I think Duncan is right in you take a playoff appearance in hand if you can. Since there's no way to insure that playoff appearance in July, I think you have to be in a position that would make it almost impossible to justify the sell off.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:04 PM   #2421
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In the event that we're buyers, the Royals probably have the ammo to land a serviceable off the bench player or a piece in the bullpen. Think Jason Frasor or Josh Willingham.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:16 PM   #2422
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I think for them to keep the band together, they need a 17-6 or 16-7 type run. .
Why? We're only 2 back of CLEVE. There's probably a 75-80% chance they're the favorites in the Central. Why don't we see where we are relative to them? If we go 10-11 and are still only 2 back, we aren't going to fold, unless maybe Minny gets up 7-8 games on us.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:19 PM   #2423
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People love prospects and minor leaguers way too much.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:28 PM   #2424
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In the event that we're buyers, the Royals probably have the ammo to land a serviceable off the bench player or a piece in the bullpen. Think Jason Frasor or Josh Willingham.
I wonder how many players' last MLB hit was as big as Willingham's? David Ross last year, for sure.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:46 PM   #2425
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I can't let go of the fact the Royals get nothing for Vargas and Minor if they are not traded. And DM has shown he wants to win now but also plan for the future,

I think that makes more sense in the offseason than in-season.

They've never expected to get anything back for Vargas at the end of this deal, other than more money off the payroll.

Minor does have a mutual option for $10 million for 2018, and he might actually pick it up. In a scenario where KC trades Herrera, it might use Minor as the closer if he isn't traded himself. A year closing out games could see him up for a nice payday via free agency the next year.

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Originally Posted by Why Not? View Post
Here's how I think it plays out. This is just my best guess. I'm going to use the AS break as my reference point but you can push the math to the trade deadline if you wish. I believe the Royals have 23 games prior to the AS break. I think for them to keep the band together, they need a 17-6 or 16-7 type run. In all likelihood, that puts KC in 1st for the division or within a WC spot. At that point, it's the right move to "go for it" one more time by keeping everyone. Some have even insinuated that we add a pitcher. I'm just not sure what ammo we have for that? Anyway, I think being "in it" or 3-4 games out is not going to be enough. I think Duncan is right in you take a playoff appearance in hand if you can. Since there's no way to insure that playoff appearance in July, I think you have to be in a position that would make it almost impossible to justify the sell off.

Think back to 2014. They definitely weren't in an "it's impossible to justify selling" situation.

I agree they need to post a winning record and keep moving up the standings between now and the ASB, but getting to a game or two above .500 or even .500 itself would still show that progress.

You then would have two more weeks to assess whether you stand pat or sell. If things continue trending upwards, you stand pat and hope the return of Duffy is enough to catapault you forward. If they reverse, you still have time to sell.




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Old 06-15-2017, 04:21 PM   #2426
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[QUOTE=duncan_idaho;12918163]




Think back to 2014. They definitely weren't in an "it's impossible to justify selling" situation.

No they certainly weren't. But I think the success matters. Meaning this year, with these players, staying put and missing the playoffs would be doubly painful if everybody ends up leaving. In 2014 you still knew the main core minus Billy and I guess Gordon(assuming he would have been traded)would be in place for a 2015 run.

Anyway, we all want the same thing I think. For the team to keep playing winning baseball, make the playoffs and see what happens.

And then re-sign everybody and do it all over😀
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Old 06-15-2017, 04:22 PM   #2427
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Old 06-15-2017, 04:32 PM   #2428
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People love prospects and minor leaguers way too much.
Sometimes. Look at our farm system right now. If we do not sell we are set up for a DISASTER.
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Old 06-15-2017, 04:40 PM   #2429
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Why? We're only 2 back of CLEVE. There's probably a 75-80% chance they're the favorites in the Central. Why don't we see where we are relative to them? If we go 10-11 and are still only 2 back, we aren't going to fold, unless maybe Minny gets up 7-8 games on us.
Remember, I'm not saying what I personally would do, I'm saying that's how I think the front office will see it. Certainly a good chance I'm way off base but I think the front office has a tough job ahead of them. The fans will want to go for it if we are anywhere in range. If we miss or even WC and done, the same fan base(I'm not saying us, necessarily, but just overall)will scream for white collar heads to roll when 2018 and beyond look like 2004-2010 unless guys like Dozier, Mondesi, Torres, Junis, etc become total studs. Maybe that does happen. Or maybe Glass says "**** it 100 million 5 year contracts for everyone!!!" Who knows? But we'll find out soon enough
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:29 PM   #2430
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One thing is I wouldn't even look at the WC standings
yes, the last time we were a WC we took it to game 7 of the WS
but to make a buy/sell/stand pat decision based on maybe getting a shot at a 1-game playoff where you might be starting your #5 pitcher...it just doesn't seem worth it
Going for a division title is one thing but a chasing a WC berth is such a crapshoot
I don't know...maybe I'll feel differently later but right now it doesn't seem worth it to play for a WC berth
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