(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I saw you post that earlier on the Scout board.

Is there something I missed in regards to salary breakdown? Math is not making sense to me, quite yet, unless I'm severely underestimating the arbitration awards.

Someone else summarized it better than I did.

13.5 Shields
11 Guthrie
10.75 Gordon
8 Butler
7 Vargas
4.8 Davis
3 Escobar
1.5 Perez
~5 Hochevar
~4.8 Holland
~4.1 Hosmer
~3.3 Bonifacio
~1.8 Crow
~1.2 Getz
~1.2 Maxwell
~1.1 Collins
~0.8 Hayes
.5 Bueno/Smith
.5 Coleman
.5 Herrera
.5 Duffy
.5 Dyson
.5 Lough/Ciriaco
.5 Cain
.5 Moustakas

86.85MM

Hoch through Hayes are arbitration estimates from mlbtraderumors, but they have had a track record of really making great arbitration estimates. They are usually only off when both sides are far apart and let the arbitrator decide. A lot of the raises at the high end people know about, but you may be surprised by what Holland and Hosmer are going to get.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Someone else summarized it better than I did.

13.5 Shields
11 Guthrie
10.75 Gordon
8 Butler
7 Vargas
4.8 Davis
3 Escobar
1.5 Perez
~5 Hochevar
~4.8 Holland
~4.1 Hosmer
~3.3 Bonifacio
~1.8 Crow
~1.2 Getz
~1.2 Maxwell
~1.1 Collins
~0.8 Hayes
.5 Bueno/Smith
.5 Coleman
.5 Herrera
.5 Duffy
.5 Dyson
.5 Lough/Ciriaco
.5 Cain
.5 Moustakas

86.85MM

Hoch through Hayes are arbitration estimates from mlbtraderumors, but they have had a track record of really making great arbitration estimates. They are usually only off when both sides are far apart and let the arbitrator decide. A lot of the raises at the high end people know about, but you may be surprised by what Holland and Hosmer are going to get.

Yup, those estimates are higher than I anticipated.

Would be great if they could move some combination of Crow and Hochevar for lineup help and just freaking cut that POS Chris Getz. That's $8 million saved right there.

And of course, even with all that... with the extra TV money the team is receiving, they're still nearly $20 million better off than a year ago (adding new TV money to payroll).

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yup, those estimates are higher than I anticipated.

Would be great if they could move some combination of Crow and Hochevar for lineup help and just freaking cut that POS Chris Getz. That's $8 million saved right there.

And of course, even with all that... with the extra TV money the team is receiving, they're still nearly $20 million better off than a year ago (adding new TV money to payroll).

To be conservative, I've been assuming that like all massive TV deals, it is structured to start below the average and increase towards above average when the deal expires.

That assumption probably cuts only about $5MM for 2014, though. Unless Glass took a massive loss in 2013 of about -$15MM, we should still have money to spend. I'm willing to believe he broke even, but I don't think he lost a bunch of money, and if he's really willing to take a small loss if we're close to give us even more payroll flexibility, then this is the year to do it.

[Prison Bitch]

I like Hoch more than any Royal fan but I really don't think we can justify his pay any longer. We've got to have one of the highest payrolls spent on middle relievers in the game. I'm not certain if he, Wade Davis, or Crow can be legit starters in the league but you can't pay 10M for them to toss ~150 IP in the pen.

[Coach]

What a ****ing letdown....

[BlackHelicopters]

Can someone help me with Getz's contract status?

[BlackHelicopters]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...getzch01.shtml

Never mind

[Nightfyre]

We need to deal a right-handed RP or two, imo. Hoch absolutely should be dealt. 5M for an eighth inning guy is going to be tough to justify. Plus at least that way we actually get something for him instead of watching him walk for nothing next year.

[Deberg_1990]

Mellinger "Gets it"


Vargas better not be the Only move.....


http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/21...ition-but.html

The Royals are good again, finally, and not just by the lousy standards they’ve set for themselves over the last two decades. They are young and athletic and full of promise as they head toward a season that will determine so much about the last seven years of Processing and …



JOHN SLEEZER | THE KANSAS CITY STAR
Related News
Royals sign lefty pitcher Jason Vargas to a four-year, $32 million deal
Video: Royals introduce new pitcher Jason Vargas
More News
Read more Sam Mellinger

Jason Vargas?

Wait. Is that all?

Seven years of building and patience and promises about spending big money when the time comes, and the Royals begin a crucial offseason by watching the best available pieces fall off the market before grabbing a younger Bruce Chen.

It’s not that Vargas is a bad pitcher. He’s fine. He’s a no-frills-no-thrills lefty who makes up for an underwhelming fastball with good control and a very good changeup. Winning teams have had worse pitchers at the back of their rotations.

But the Royals needed an Escalade, and they bought themselves a Sorento.

This is an offseason for the Royals to make improvements from the outside, and they’re working on a net loss. The Royals pushed hard for free agent Tim Hudson, a legitimate heir to Ervin Santana’s No. 2 spot in the rotation, only to lose out to the Giants. They looked into Josh Johnson, a tantalizing gamble depending on health, but lost out to the Padres.

Phil Hughes is still out there, with his connections to Royals pitching coach Dave Eiland, but the chances of another major addition to the rotation are considerably less than 50-50.

Vargas is a consolation prize, basically. Weighed against the expected loss of Santana to the free-agent market, then, well, the improvement of Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, and others just became more important.

Much more important.

Same goes for adding a bat through free agency, especially if it’s Carlos Beltran of Curtis Granderson.

Anyway, Vargas makes some sense for the Royals. He made 96 starts from 2010 to 2012 before a bizarre injury (a blood clot in his armpit) limited him to 24 last year. He is a good bet for 185 innings or so of league-average production which, in the current climate, is enough for a four-year contract worth $32 million.

In major-league baseball terms, Vargas took slightly less than market value on his yearly salary to get an extra year and a bigger total guarantee. If Vargas is roughly as good in ages 31 to 34 as he was from 27 to 30, it’s a good baseball move, but that is not the standard of this Royals offseason.

This is a time for the Royals to stretch themselves, to take a gamble. They won 86 games last year and kept within squinting distance of a playoff spot into the start of the NFL season, which is quite an improvement. Attendance will be up next year, and all teams are getting an extra $25 million (before taxes) as part of the new national TV contracts.

So the Royals have the means, motivation and need to push outside their comfort zone. Instead — and the offseason is just starting, so this is still fluid — they are so far digging in and playing safe.

There is risk in holding back, too, and for a fan base that’s already been asked for too much patience, it would be nice to see their team seize the moment.

Look, there is a lot to like about the bigger picture for the Royals. They appear, finally, to have found an identity. They are self-made, spending a lot of money and sweat building a strong nucleus of young and talented players in what’s become one of the game’s better farm systems. They are athletic, playing the best defense in baseball last year ( by Defensive Runs Saved), and tough in the late innings with a stack of power arms.

But for a team built around pitching and defense, the starting rotation remains the most important element. Barring a major surprise, the Royals have only one more year with James Shields at the top of the rotation and are at least a year away from knowing what they have in Danny Duffy — let alone Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer.

In that context, if Vargas is indeed the substitute for Santana’s production, then they’re starting the season a half-step behind.

The Royals need a jackpot. They signed a consolation prize.



To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send email to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.

[alnorth]

We signed Cory Wade to a minor league deal.

[alnorth]

Holy smokes, Jhonny Peralta wants something in the range of 4/56 or 5/75

[Deberg_1990]

We still have no one to push Moose. Royals are putting too many eggs in one basket there.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

We still have no one to push Moose. Royals are putting too many eggs in one basket there.

Can't do much about that, we have Bonifacio if all else fails. RF, 2B, and SP were higher priorities, and we can hope that Moose bounces back.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Can't do much about that, we have Bonifacio if all else fails. RF, 2B, and SP were higher priorities, and we can hope that Moose bounces back.

Yea, pretty much.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

"It'a a major award!"