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Old 07-02-2013, 02:42 PM  
Mr. Arrowhead Mr. Arrowhead is offline
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Top 10 Offense?
On NFL Live, they had a debate on whether the Chiefs can be a Top 10 offense, and surprisingly they both thought that we would be in the top 10 in offense. Kind of crazy
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:52 AM   #241
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Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO View Post
I never understood just throwing out games/seasons either.

If you need that to prove a point there isn't rally a point
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I'll try and explain...

Here is MagicHef's graph from several posts ago:

http://s23.postimg.org/9uoj2vvuj/scp.png

If you look at this it shows for every 10 passes Smith throws, his completion rate decreases by 10%. If you look close 13 passes is at 80%, 23 passes are at 70%, 33 passes are at 60%, 43 passes are at 50%, etc.

His question was for 56 passes. His answer would be about 37% completions.


Charting out completions for every 10 passes would go as follows:

10 passes 8.3 completions
20 passes 14.6 completions
30 passes 18.9 completions
40 passes 21.2 completions
50 passes 21.5 completions
60 passes 19.8 completions
70 passes 16.1 completions

For his 56 passes in one game, he would be expecting 20.7 completions.


Probably not realistic.
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:55 AM   #242
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I think a fair expectation is around 18th - or 21 points a game.
7 FGs a game for the MFW MFers!
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Old 07-06-2013, 02:58 PM   #243
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7 FGs a game for the MFW MFers!
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Old 07-06-2013, 05:29 PM   #244
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Old 07-06-2013, 05:34 PM   #245
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Old 07-06-2013, 05:58 PM   #246
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FG's make Lil Chiefy wet
Lil' Chiefy gets an erection in tandem with Succoup's leg going horizontal...
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:01 PM   #247
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Lil' Chiefy gets an erection in tandem with Succoup's leg going horizontal...
...but only Colquit gets that pup tent fully extended
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:22 PM   #248
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with this team, and how they've crushed my spiritis annually....

I have zero expectatinos of them until I see them.
red beers and depression fo me on sundays until they do something
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Old 07-06-2013, 09:35 PM   #249
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Remember when the "experts" picked the Chiefs to win the division in 2012?
I remember when Matt Cassel was our QB.
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Old 07-07-2013, 10:19 AM   #250
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Ok, BossChief. In 2012 the average team threw 35 passes per game and completed 61% of those.

I'll bet you that Alex Smith completes 61+% of his passes in less than half of the games where he throws 35 or more passes.

That is something that Manning, Rivers, and Palmer all managed to do in 2012, by the way. Neither Cassel nor Quinn did, though.
I understand your hesitation in accepting a bet where you are on Alex Smith's side. However, I want to make sure that you know what ignoring my bet means:

You don't think Alex Smith can elevate his play to the level shown by Carson Palmer in 2012.
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Old 07-07-2013, 10:24 AM   #251
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I ignored it because your proposal is ridiculous.
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Old 07-07-2013, 11:04 AM   #252
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I ignored it because your proposal is ridiculous.
Yes, I agree that expecting Smith to be league-average or better half the time when he's asked to throw a league-average number of passes is ridiculous. There's no way he could do it. Obviously "below average" is an appropriate term.
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Old 07-07-2013, 01:50 PM   #253
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Yes, I agree that expecting Smith to be league-average or better half the time when he's asked to throw a league-average number of passes is ridiculous. There's no way he could do it. Obviously "below average" is an appropriate term.
I agree.
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Old 07-07-2013, 01:59 PM   #254
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I don't think there is a team in history that averaged 40 passes a game that was any good. Let alone 50.

You guys are arguing over worse case scenario shit. If you are passing 35-40 times a game you probably are behind. Teams tend to lose more games when they are behind.

It's cause and effect.
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Old 07-07-2013, 02:06 PM   #255
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I don't think there is a team in history that averaged 40 passes a game that was any good. Let alone 50.

You guys are arguing over worse case scenario shit. If you are passing 35-40 times a game you probably are behind. Teams tend to lose more games when they are behind.

It's cause and effect.


Peyton Manning averaged 36 attempts a game last year.

Tom Brady averaged 39.8.

Matt Ryan averaged 38.

The best teams and QBs are throwing more and more and more. Not less.

Welcome to Wrongville, population: you.
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