(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

What is a joke about that? If we could move Butler for something like James Paxton and Nick Franklin from Seattle I would do that in a heartbeat.

Butler is a good hitter but I'm not sure paying a 2 WAR guy that can only play DH $8MM a year is the best use of resources for us.

Well, no one is untradable, but if we trade Butler, then we need to be able to make an argument to the fans that we are better in the 2014 season from it. I'm not even opposed to some salary-dumping trades when it makes sense to the team (team full of older or flawed guys who don't really have much of a chance to win and you have a ton of young players in AAA who are ready, maybe you blow it all up and start over), but that is not 2014.

What would be a joke is if we signed Beltran then said "welp, now we can't afford Butler, lets sell him off to the highest bidder". Trades for baseball reasons are fine, salary-dumping in 2014 is not.

[BlackHelicopters]

Perhaps GMDM I scouting on rebound seasons from Moose, Escobar and Gordon to fill the offensive need. Wouldn't surprise me if this is the way we end up.

[alnorth]

All that said, in theory I would prefer not to have a full-time DH on my team. I love American League baseball, but the game has evolved to the point where AL teams much prefer to use the DH spot to give guys a half-day off, but we don't have that luxury because 1B is not open and we're stuck with Butler who is a fan favorite and who also provides a lot of offense for a team that doesn't have much offense. A full-time DH is also not worth much in NL parks.

In the future, we need to be more aggressive about moving guys off the team and keeping that valuable DH spot open if they don't have a position before they become established.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Paxton and Franklin are prospects with risk, but both have a lot of upside too. I recognize i'm in the minority but I just don't think Butler provides enough offensive production to support his salary for the next two seasons, and think we should explore trade options if they are out there.

If we sign Beltran to a multi-year deal you almost have to trade Butler because playing Beltran everyday in RF for the next three seasons would be a huge hit for our defense.

Paxton and Danny Duffy are nearly identical guys. Lefties with major heat and control improvements needed. Adding another one increases your chances of having one "hit" as a good MLB player, but it isn't a move you can obviously point to and say "this helps us win in 2014."

Same thing with Franklin.

The Beltran range/defense concerns are a little overblown, IMO. It's possible he fell off the cliff last year, but it's also possible he just had a 'down' year and will return to being the neutral defensive player he'd been in the few years leading up to 2013.

And as much as Beltran struggled on D in 2013, he still wasn't as bad as Francoeur was in 2012.

I'm not sure the Royals front office watches Beltran play defense and sees his D as a big problem. More likely, they focus on his sure-handedness, steadiness, and throwing ability.

[alnorth]

http://www.foxsportskansascity.com/m...blockID=941725

Man, I really, really wish we would have asked Hosmer to learn RF. Yeah his glove is good at first, but he is athletic enough to play the corner outfield. At this point, it would take a very long time to coach him up to being replacement-level defensively.

We never bothered, because we had Wil Myers, LOL.

[Reaper16]

Or we could have, like, kept Myers.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Well, no one is untradable, but if we trade Butler, then we need to be able to make an argument to the fans that we are better in the 2014 season from it. I'm not even opposed to some salary-dumping trades when it makes sense to the team (team full of older or flawed guys who don't really have much of a chance to win and you have a ton of young players in AAA who are ready, maybe you blow it all up and start over), but that is not 2014.

What would be a joke is if we signed Beltran then said "welp, now we can't afford Butler, lets sell him off to the highest bidder". Trades for baseball reasons are fine, salary-dumping in 2014 is not.

That's my point. The latter would be the "****ing joke" I alluded to in my previous post.

[CaliforniaChief]

Agree with all this. Saying "We already have a record payroll" is a loser's statement.

1. By nature of inflation, every year should be a record level.

2. Add the TV revenue and that is particularly true.

3. The question that a winning franchise asks is "What do we need to do to be a championship-caliber franchise?"

The above-listed question doesn't mean you spend recklessly on payroll but that you use your resources to fill needs/build depth.

[alnorth]

Not sure if it was already discussed here, but a major non-baseball reason why the Royals are probably chasing Beltran is to see him go into the HOF as a Royal.

If his career ended today, it would be iffy, but he's probably 2 or 3 more solid seasons away from becoming a near-lock Hall of Famer due to effective longevity. He might not reach 3,000 hits, but his OPS has been so high for so long that if he just tacks on a few more non-crappy years to his 16-year career, he'll be in.

If anyone else signs him, there'd be an argument for KC but he'll probably go in as a Met, but if we sign him, he'll probably be compelled by Cooperstown to have our cap on his plaque.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Agree with all this. Saying "We already have a record payroll" is a loser's statement.

1. By nature of inflation, every year should be a record level.

2. Add the TV revenue and that is particularly true.

3. The question that a winning franchise asks is "What do we need to do to be a championship-caliber franchise?"

The above-listed question doesn't mean you spend recklessly on payroll but that you use your resources to fill needs/build depth.

Pisses me off when org representatives talk about how we've increased payroll. Of course we've increased payroll --- revenue has increased as well. It insults the fan's intelligence.

No mention of the last few years when we went very young and banked money that would have normally be spent on payroll.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by KevB

Pisses me off when org representatives talk about how we've increased payroll. Of course we've increased payroll --- revenue has increased as well. It insults the fan's intelligence.

No mention of the last few years when we went very young and banked money that would have normally be spent on payroll.

There was really one year where they majorly slashed payroll under Dayton... that was the first year with Hosmer/Moose/etc. Before that was the Meche/Guillen years. There was one year they spent $81 million with that group, more than a bunch of teams... but it's forgotten because we were terrible.

Either way... it's overrated. Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland... on and on, tons of teams win games spending less money than the Royals have the last 7 years. It's not an excuse. Because when small market teams spend money... they're forced to overpay for guys like Jason Vargas and Jose Guillen. If our front office is competent we've spent more than enough to win... we've never really done a Marlins/Pirates type yard sale under Dayton.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by KevB

Pisses me off when org representatives talk about how we've increased payroll. Of course we've increased payroll --- revenue has increased as well. It insults the fan's intelligence.

No mention of the last few years when we went very young and banked money that would have normally be spent on payroll.

This organization seems to lack awareness of how much more informed fans are in the internet age than they were in the 80s and early 90s.

Can you imagine the outcry if the Royals did something as asinine as giving Storm Davis big money now?

[tk13]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

This organization seems to lack awareness of how much more informed fans are in the internet age than they were in the 80s and early 90s.

Can you imagine the outcry if the Royals did something as asinine as giving Storm Davis big money now?

I think there's a subsection of fans who are much more intelligent than baseball fans have ever been. But there are also still plenty of people who still think it's 2001 and the Royals trade every decent player they develop for peanuts.

Then you can take the off ramp from there to all the people who want Billy Butler traded.

[alnorth]

We might be over-estimating how many of us there are. We read message boards like this and listen to the radio and think everyone is informed, but when I talk to the average fan, they are still pretty clueless about baseball economics.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Yeah, this is why I'm not super excited about a Beltran signing. But if we move Butler, we can use the additional lineup flexibility to play him some at DH.

That's what I'd love to see. I wonder if they can work something out to get that type of deal done. I think Beltran as a DH would give us 3 pretty damn solid years and I think it's good for him too, being a full time DH at this point.