Alex Smith Traded to Chiefs

[Deberg_1990]

Well, it looks like the deal is done.



https://twitter.com/intent/user?scre...w_p=tweetembed




Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
49ers have completed a trade with the Chiefs for Alex Smith, tho can't be official til March 12. Chiefs really made a commitment to Smith


Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
Deal has been agreed upon between Chiefs and 49ers. Compensation unclear but I'm told again Chiefs have made a clear commitment to Smith.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I hate to break this to people, but QBs who check down always have inflated YPA because you are guaranteed 4-5 yards a play on those passes.

If you really want to evaluate how good of a passer a QB is, look at how well he completes intermediate routes to wide receivers. If he can complete those consistently, he can essentially make any throw.

I'd much rather have a QB who completes half of his passes 16-20 yards down the field and only checks down out of absolute necessity than someone who completes nearly all his passes at the LOS and never pushes the ball.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by SNR

I honestly can't think of many instances where a team overdrafted a QB at #1 overall outside of Cam Newton.

There have been numerous QB busts at #1 overall, but those don't count. They have to be overdrafted guys that people said weren't worth that high of a draft pick.

The last guy before that was... Tim Couch? David Carr? I can't remember back that far what people were saying about those two.

Tim Couch and David Carr weren't that long ago. Hell, people on THIS SITE felt that Eli Manning was crap and in no way elite, and that was AFTER his Super Bowl win!

For how many years have we heard people bag on Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler? The bottom line is that until the Chiefs actually win a playoff game, NO quarterback is any good.

It's bizarre.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

The Harbaugh Years (2011-2012): The Not So Good
While Smith’s stats above took a major uptick starting in 2011, there were still some red flags. While his 70.2 completion percentage last season was impressive, it also showed his unwillingness to take chances and throw the ball downfield. His average depth of target of only 8 yards was the fourth-lowest of all quarterbacks and only 8.7 percent of Smith’s passes traveled 20+ yards downfield in 2012. Among quarterbacks who started at least half their games, only Christian Ponder had a lower percentage.

	2011	Rank	2012	Rank
Average Depth of Target	8.0	33rd	7.7	37th
Deep Passing	9.70%	28th	8.70%	33rd

Smith also led the NFL in 2011 by taking 44 sacks, and was sacked 24 times in nine starts in 2012 before being replaced by Kaepernick. Smith was sacked on one third of his pressures in 2012, which led the league by a wide margin.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Matt Moore IS a free agent.

Great! Sign him to backup Smith.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by splatbass

But if we win one why does it matter how we did it?

At that point, it becomes the complaints of successful teams: sure, we won one, but why couldn't we be a dynasty? This approach doesn't lead itself to sustained championship-level success.

If you just want to win one Super Bowl, building your team like Reid and Dorsey seem to be looking to is like playing speed chess with both of your hands tied behind your back (you can win moving pieces with your mouth, but it will be more difficult than it ever needed to be).

If you want to win multiple Super Bowls, this team-building approach is like playing speed chess blindfolded. Those wins aren't going to happen.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I hate to break this to people, but QBs who check down always have inflated YPA because you are guaranteed 4-5 yards a play on those passes.

If you really want to evaluate how good of a passer a QB is, look at how well he completes intermediate routes to wide receivers. If he can complete those consistently, he can essentially make any throw.

I'd much rather have a QB who completes half of his passes 16-20 yards down the field and only checks down out of absolute necessity than someone who completes nearly all his passes at the LOS and never pushes the ball.

Alex Smiths depantsing via advanced stats

In 2011, Alex Smith only attempted a total of 117 passes over 10 yards...he completed 57 of them...only 1231 yards of his came from passes that were over 10 yards from the Los or more.

He only completed 13 passes all year that went 20 or more yards in the air.

16 games and h threw the ball over 20 yards 13 times.

13.

2 second round picks.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I hate to break this to people, but QBs who check down always have inflated YPA because you are guaranteed 4-5 yards a play on those passes.

If you really want to evaluate how good of a passer a QB is, look at how well he completes intermediate routes to wide receivers. If he can complete those consistently, he can essentially make any throw.

I'd much rather have a QB who completes half of his passes 16-20 yards down the field and only checks down out of absolute necessity than someone who completes nearly all his passes at the LOS and never pushes the ball.

*cough*

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Fruit Ninja

Casual fans can be blinded easily. Fans that are actually knowledgable and can seee through the bullshit know whats up.

The problem with this is that most of the fans that think they are knowledgeable are really just opinionated.

[BossChief]

1903 of his yards in 2011 came from passes that were thrown under 10 yards from the Los.

1231 came on passes over 10 yards.

We went from the check down king to the check down Messiah.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

After having some time to brood on it, this is what I think this trade is:

1) I think Reid and Dorsey are trying to do two things simultaneously: One is win right now to win over a disgruntled fanbase. If they get to 8-8 next year 90% of people will see them as gods.

2) I think this buys them time (in their mind) to find a developmental QB somewhere in the middle of this draft or the next one. Since they'll likely finish with a middling record, they wont' be in position for an elite prospect.

It's an abysmal strategy with an absolutely awful success rate.

They are hoping for a 1/50 chance and immediate dividends rather than a 1/3 chance and growing pains.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by SNR

I honestly can't think of many instances where a team overdrafted a QB at #1 overall outside of Cam Newton.

There have been numerous QB busts at #1 overall, but those don't count. They have to be overdrafted guys that people said weren't worth that high of a draft pick.

The last guy before that was... Tim Couch? David Carr? I can't remember back that far what people were saying about those two.

Sam Bradford was absolutely overdrafted if you're putting Cam in that category.

Bradford will never live up to his pre-draft hype.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

Sam Bradford was absolutely overdrafted if you're putting Cam in that category.

Bradford will never live up to his pre-draft hype.

He means that you have to have been considered a prospect outside the top five or so in the draft. That you were reached for because of your position.

Newton went #1 overall w/o being the consensus #1 QB. Technically, he was overdrafted. It also turned out to be a wise decision.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by SNR

If the Rams win a Super Bowl with Sam Bradford, are they just lucky too?
I get everybody wants to be the objective guy when it comes to Geno Smith, but too often that objectivity and skepticism turns into dumbassery.

Your post I quoted was one such example.

It's your logic not mine. You've become like a dog chasing his tail.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

After having some time to brood on it, this is what I think this trade is:

1) I think Reid and Dorsey are trying to do two things simultaneously: One is win right now to win over a disgruntled fanbase. If they get to 8-8 next year 90% of people will see them as gods.

2) I think this buys them time (in their mind) to find a developmental QB somewhere in the middle of this draft or the next one. Since they'll likely finish with a middling record, they wont' be in position for an elite prospect.

It's an abysmal strategy with an absolutely awful success rate.

They are hoping for a 1/50 chance and immediate dividends rather than a 1/3 chance and growing pains.

I think they are refusing to invest in a quarterback they don't think can pan out for them. They've watched the tapes on these guys, they've interviewed them, there's something about them that wasn't appealing. I don't know what it was, but it's something. For the universal opinion among talent evaluators in the NFL to be this consistent, it's something just about everyone on CP isn't seeing.

I don't think this is showing they are adverse to a young QB because they've both shown in their previous stops they will invest high picks in them.

I think it's them surveying what's available at this moment and saying we aren't tying the Chiefs to that for 4-5 years.

I don't think trading for Alex Smith stops them at all from investing a 1 in a QB in 2014.

I think they have also examined the talent on this team and the window is now before guys like DJ, Hali, Flowers, Charles, Bowe are long in the tooth.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by philfree

It's your logic not mine. You've become like a dog chasing his tail.

Overdrafting a QB at 1.1 is NOTHING like spending two second rounders on a Checkdown Charlie veteran QB.

It's not my logic, it's YOUR logic. Let's make that clear.