Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 172

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

KevB · 07-27-2015, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I'll tell you what ... Yesterday I picked Toronto as the 2nd wild card. Today? I predict a collapse

I think what's scary is if they have that offense and then also go add some pitching. I can't imagine they did this without also having a line on a pitching upgrade. I still love our team, nothing any other team does will change that. But Tulo is a pretty big upgrade on Reyes at this point. He looked like a shell of his former self earlier this year at the K.

duncan_idaho · 07-27-2015, 11:20 PM

It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...

tk13 · 07-27-2015, 11:22 PM

Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-27-2015, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa.

The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs.

They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable.

It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel...

I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.

For sure ... but the O's had Britton, Miller and O'day last year. Our SP > the Yankees with Cueto.

Miller / Betances and Kimbrel would make our bullpen look pedestrian lolol

tk13 · 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM

Rosenthal alluded to this on MLB Network. Wasn't sure Tulo knew this was coming. Not sure how well that was going to go over.

Sources: #Rockies owner Dick Monfort had told Tulo that he would not be traded A) w/o being consulted and B) to place he didn’t want to go.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2015

KevB · 07-27-2015, 11:30 PM

Morosi saying Daniel Norris isn't in the deal

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:32 PM

Tulo has never had jaw dropping road splits ... super meh

KevB · 07-27-2015, 11:32 PM

Miguel Castro likely going to #Rockies in the Tulowitzki blockbuster, source says. #BlueJays
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 28, 2015

duncan_idaho · 07-27-2015, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I'd like to know what minor leaguers Toronto gave up, because they should have been elite prospects. Reyes is basically an average starting shortstop now who derives almost all his value from the basepaths, which will continue to decline. He's already below average as a defender.

It makes Toronto's offense even more terrifying, and in a one game playoff they could just bludgeon Keuchel.

If those aren't three B+ to A- prospects then it's just a salary dump.

Yeah, apparently Norris is not in the deal, and it would be hard to believe Toronto has traded Pompey since he's a local hero and all that.

Sean Reid-Foley is probably a top 75 type, but that's not enough to headline the deal. Jeff Hoffman also falls into that category. Richard Urena might make sense to be involved... 19-year-old holding his own at AA who has the glove to stick at SS and surprising pop.

BWillie · 07-27-2015, 11:36 PM

Blue Jays line up is just nuts. I hope they dont get some pitching to go along with it. Hope Cueto goes in there and just pitches a CG shut out. How great would that be

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-27-2015, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

The angels and Orioles both had fantastic offenses last year and what happened to them when it cooled down and October rolled around? Pitching and defense wins postseason baseball. Not a lineup full of HR hitters. Now, Tulo absolutely is a better defensive SS than Reyes. It's an upgrade, but scares me very little

This is commonly cited and pretty much completely wrong. The 2013 Red Sox had average starting pitching and hammered their way to a WS. The 2013 Cardinals were extremely similar. The 2011 Cardinals and Rangers were carried by monstrous offenses.

The Giants had an offense in the top third last year and 7th in 2012.

Of the last 10 teams to appear in the WS, here are their league ranks in wRC:

2010: 13, 14
2011: 3, 5
2012 14, 5
2013: 1, 4
2014: 13, 17

That's an average ranking of 8.9/30. The worst team to appear in the WS in the last five years had no worse than a league average offense.

Offense absolutely matters.

Meanwhile, here are the team rankings by FIP:

2010: 3, 22
2011: 8, 16
2012: 4, 9
2013: 2, 16
2014: 10, 14

Average pitching was rated 10.7/30

Offense matters every bit as much as pitching.

BWillie · 07-27-2015, 11:39 PM

You know what, **** the Blue Jays. Do they have six guys with 10 or more HRs like deez Royals? Hell no.

cmh6476 · 07-27-2015, 11:41 PM

joe Blanton will probably end up a blue jay

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:43 PM

I'll look it up tomorrow when I'm off my phone ... I'm not talking about regular season numbers. When the postseason hits, pitching wins. Even if it's mediocre guys throwing surprising gems. Someone tried telling me the 2005 Sox had average pitching and won a WS the other day. Um, they went 11-1 in the playoffs and won because of absolutely dominant starting pitching.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1969692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,388

07-27-2015, 11:20 PM	#2567
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1969692	It could be enough for them to bash their way through the AL East, though. That lineup is going to play extremely well in all of the AL East parks EXCEPT for Tampa. The Yankees have better SP at the 1-2 spots and a much better bullpen, but other than that, there isn't really a rotation in that division that is better than theirs. They are, however, 7 games back from the Yankees. That's a lot to make up this point but not insurmountable. It would suck to make this type of deal, though, and end up in a one-game wildcard facing Dallas Keuchel... __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 22,388

07-27-2015, 11:22 PM	#2568
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1737500	Yeah I think an even bigger concern is this might actually wake up the Yankees. I don't want them getting Kimbrel. They would actually be able to move their closer, Miller, to the 7th inning and go Miller/Betances/Kimbrel. They could at least match our bullpen every step of the way.
Posts: 56,650

07-27-2015, 11:30 PM	#2571
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1737500	Rosenthal alluded to this on MLB Network. Wasn't sure Tulo knew this was coming. Not sure how well that was going to go over. Sources: #Rockies owner Dick Monfort had told Tulo that he would not be traded A) w/o being consulted and B) to place he didn’t want to go. — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2015
Posts: 56,650

07-27-2015, 11:30 PM	#2572
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	Morosi saying Daniel Norris isn't in the deal
Posts: 14,446

07-27-2015, 11:32 PM	#2573
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Tulo has never had jaw dropping road splits ... super meh
Posts: 56,356

07-27-2015, 11:32 PM	#2574
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	Miguel Castro likely going to #Rockies in the Tulowitzki blockbuster, source says. #BlueJays — Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 28, 2015
Posts: 14,446

07-27-2015, 11:36 PM	#2576
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1308759	Blue Jays line up is just nuts. I hope they dont get some pitching to go along with it. Hope Cueto goes in there and just pitches a CG shut out. How great would that be
Posts: 52,613

07-27-2015, 11:39 PM	#2578
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1308759	You know what, **** the Blue Jays. Do they have six guys with 10 or more HRs like deez Royals? Hell no.
Posts: 52,613

07-27-2015, 11:41 PM	#2579
cmh6476 Keep Camp Home! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: St Joe MO Casino cash: $-883723	joe Blanton will probably end up a blue jay __________________ from September to February! from November to April! from April to October! 2024 Adopt-a-Chief: Xavier Worthy
Posts: 10,964

07-27-2015, 11:43 PM	#2580
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I'll look it up tomorrow when I'm off my phone ... I'm not talking about regular season numbers. When the postseason hits, pitching wins. Even if it's mediocre guys throwing surprising gems. Someone tried telling me the 2005 Sox had average pitching and won a WS the other day. Um, they went 11-1 in the playoffs and won because of absolutely dominant starting pitching.
Posts: 56,356