How many wins will the Chiefs have?

[G_Man]

Before the season almost everyone, myself included were picking around 9-7 or worse. I think it would be neat to post your original estimation and compare it to your current one. I honestly don't remember ever posting mine (if someone cut and pasted it feel free to remind me [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif[/img] ), but it was along the lines of 9-7. Now I think we have a good chance to go 11-5. Really.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
ST. LOUIS RAMS
at Seattle Seahawks
at Oakland Raiders
at San Francisco 49ers
BUFFALO BILLS
at San Diego Chargers
at New England Patriots
CAROLINA PANTHERS
DENVER BRONCOS
at Atlanta Falcons

Here's how I see it:

Wins
Oakland - at least one
Seattle - Huard starting at QB? (this is still a little optimistic)
San Francisco - Grbac will be pumped for this game (I'm definitlely NOT overlooking this team, no matter their record)
San Diego - This is a given
New England - This is another one not to overlook because Belichick's involved, but I think our DL will win it for us.
Carolina - I definitely overrated them this year.
Denver - AT Arrowhead. I like our chances vs Gunther's b!tch
Atlanta - Pretty much a given

Losses
St Louis - I'm as optimistic as the next guy but...
Oakland - Hopefully I'm wrong
Buffalo - This could go either way, but so could some I put in the win column.

So what are everyone else's expectations? Am I too optimistic?

<BR>

[Spott]

9-7 to 10-6. We need to go at least 6-2 at home which means beating either Buffalo or St Louis at home.

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It looks I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue!

[BroncoFan]

Before the Season, I thought Chiefs might go 6-11. Now, looking at the schedule they don't really have a realistic of going better than 9-6. That is if they get lucky one game (I think they uses their luck up in with 2 wins already this season)

My guess, 8-8

Wins will be
San Fran
San Diego
New England
Carolina
Atlanta

That should put the Chiefs at 3rd in the Division. Tied with the Seahawks.

[58Forever]

Let's see the Chiefs beat the Broncs at home and you expect the Broncs to win here?...typical homer...but hey, I expect the Chiefs to win every week...isn't it fun to be a die hard homer?.... [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/cool.gif[/img]

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joe

"The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
-Joe Theisman, NFL football quarterback and sports analyst

[BroncoFan]

58Forever,

That is one of the most refreshing posts I have read on this BB. Good to know there are others out there with the same devotion to their team.

[cdcox]

I ran a computer simulation to the other night looking at this question. If I rememver correctly, there was about a 20% chance of winning 11 games or more, about a 25% chance of winning exactly 10 games and a 55% chance of winning 9 games or fewer. So based on how the season has gone so far and our upcoming schedule, it looks like a 9 or 10 wins is most likely. At the beginning of the season I figured (subjective,without using the computer) we would win 7 or 8 games, so this is a significant improvement.

Interestingly, I ran a computer simulation to see what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we finished exactly 10-6. The odds were less than 2/3. So we could finish with a 10-6 record and miss the playoffs.

(Admins: I submitted an article for the front page late Tuesday night with this tidbit and a few others, but I haven't seen it posted yet?)<P>

[cdcox]

I ran a computer simulation to the other night looking at this question. If I rememver correctly, there was about a 20% chance of winning 11 games or more, about a 25% chance of winning exactly 10 games and a 55% chance of winning 9 games or fewer. So based on how the season has gone so far and our upcoming schedule, it looks like a 9 or 10 wins is most likely. At the beginning of the season I figured (subjective,without using the computer) we would win 7 or 8 games, so this is a significant improvement.

Interestingly, I ran a computer simulation to see what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we finished exactly 10-6. The odds were less than 2/3. So we could finish with a 10-6 record and miss the playoffs.

(Admins: I submitted an article for the front page late Tuesday night with this tidbit and a few others, but I haven't seen it posted yet?)<P>

[Red Till Dead]

We already beat the best team in the NFL (broncos) on the road, so I gotta figure its all gravy from here.

Chiefs win out the Season.

[JOhn]

CD,
I Question your "fuzzy Math" [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif[/img]
I also have run numerous simulations as to the outcome of the Season. I also enlisted the aid of several friends who are football and computer fans too. Here is our results for the Chiefs:

12-4

Beating the JETs in the first round
Beating the colts in the AFC championship

Beating St.louis 46-10 in the SB.

No I'm sure you are wondering how I came to these Astounding, but true results?????

well I used the most accurate and honeredcomputer simulation available....


MADDEN 2000

[cdcox]

JOhn:

I'm not sure your simulations are statistically valid. For my Monte Carlo simulations, I simulate the season 500 times each week [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/cool.gif[/img]. How many simulations per week are you and your friends able to achieve? [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif[/img] Multiple simulations are necessary to quantify the probability of a given outcome.

Also, my feeling is that your ability to manipulate the controls better than your (human or computer) opponent adds a subjective element to your predictions. If you play with some of the other NFL powers I would expect you could achieve similar or better results.

Finally, have you validated your method by comparing the predictions you generate to the results in the generated on the playing field? For instance, if you were able to make the Chiefs win the Super Bowl with Madden '98 or '99 (or any other version after Madden '69, it would seem to cast your results in a dubious light. [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/tongue.gif[/img]

[cdcox]

Gotta quit using the back button; it generates multiple posts. duh! :O



[This message has been edited by cdcox (edited 10-05-2000).]

[JOhn]

Very good points indeed CD.

Now I'm not sure as to the number of times we have tried it, But sufice it to say it has been 100+.

Now as to the past years, I have won it. But again this does not taake into effect the Intangables of the Game. ie turnovers, Bad Ref's etc.

Same with the "controls", this to simulates the "intangables" of the Game.

now what does all this mean? Not a damm thing [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif[/img] Point being my simulations hold just as much weight as your does. [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/tongue.gif[/img]

Hence the term "Any given Sunday".
Remember that's why we play the game. Besides who would have predicted a win at Denver?

[JOhn]

CD,
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to bee an *** , only poking fun at the "statistics".

Just a litlle bored today also.

[ct]

My prediction was that we would sweep the division, and I have seen [b]nothin[/b] to convince me otherwise. I think(honestly do not remember exactly) that I had us @11-5 and AFC West champs. Win @Arrowhead in Wild Card round, lose on the road in Divisional round. Yeah, yeah, Homer was DREAMIN, big time!! [img]http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/smile.gif[/img]

So, as we reach the bye week, I'll predict from here out we will:

Wk 7 vs Oak - WIN
Wk 8 vs Stl - loss
Wk 9 at Sea - WIN
Wk 10 at Oak - WIN
Wk 11 at Sf - loss (3 in a row on West Coast too much)
Wk 12 vs Buf - loss
Wk 13 at Sd - WIN
Wk 14 at Ne - loss
Wk 15 vs Car - WIN
Wk 16 vs Den - WIN
Wk 17 at Atl - WIN

Ends up 10-6. I still can see this happening, folks. Not bad in a retooling, youth movement season!!!

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[b]ct
Give TRich the Ball!!!</B>

[cdcox]

JOhn:

My computer allowed for a 35% chance of winning at Denver. So although it predicted the Chiefs would lose, it did allow for them to pull off the upset about 1/3 of the time. My predictions only give % probability, not absolute outcomes.

I have also done some limited validation of my program. For instance in by week 8 of the '98 season, I accurately predicted 7 of the 8 playoff teams. I need to do some more validation studies to know exactly how accurate the predictions are, but IMHO they are worth more than Madden 2000.

I'm 100% certain that Madden 2000 holds more entertainment value than watching my computer print things like "Chiefs won 10 games but did not make the playoffs 28 times out of 75".

[cdcox]

JOhn:

My post attacking your Madden 2000 predictions was meant tounge in cheek too. I enjoy making predictions of the seasons outcome, and like to share them with others because I think they show a little insight. I know many people look at them skeptically, but they are usually in good agreement with what people think intuitively. I just like to quantify things.