KC may NOT have to win either of the next two games to get into the playoffs...

[donkhater]

Clearly, I would love for KC to run the table. But this board doesn't have to go into meltdown mode should KC lose their next two games---as long as they win their last two home games.

For KC to make the playoffs under that scenario:

1) Denver would have to win out, including at SD. The schedule does us a favor, for once, more in a minute.

2) Pitt would have to lose one of their remaining games, it doesn't matter which one.

3) SD would have to lose at KC and vs. Denver in the finale. It wouldn't even matter if they beat Indy or not.

KC would get in due to their better division record over SD and a better conference record than PIT.

Here would be the situation going into the final week:

1) Pitt would be 9-6 (presuming they lost to CHI or MIN) needing both KC (9-6) AND SD (10-5) to lose.

2) KC would be 9-6 needing to beat CIN and DEN to win at SD.

IMPROBABLE? NO Here's why:

Denver at SD is on New Year's eve. Denver owns the tie breaker over CIN (better conf. record) for the #2 seed in the playoffs. Both liekly will be 12-3 going into the final week. They would need to beat SD to get a bye.

Should Denver win that game on that Saturday, CIN would be locked into the #3 playoff position regardless if they won or lost. Sinc ethe game is totally meaningless, and considering that they would play the following week in the playoffs, it is highly likely that most of CIN starters wouldn't play, giving KC a huge edge.

Of course that would set up the playoffs such that KC would travel to CIN on Wildcard weekend to try and beat the team that just laid down for rest.

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by Extra Point

We won't get in at 10-6. We must win 3 games, one of which must be SD.

Not true on both counts.

Let's say KC wins both road games and vs. CIN and SD loses at INDY and in the season finale vs. Denver.

KC is in the playoffs at 11-5 having been swept by SD.

SD is 10-6 and at home crying in their Cheerios.

[philfree]

I'm all for beating the Cowboys and seeing where the dust settles after week 14. Then repeat in week 15 and when the dust settles we'll see that we are in a playoff position with two home games to go.

PhilFree

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by donkhater

Actually, that is yet to be determined.

Should that scenario happen:

1. KC/DEN split the season series
2. Both are 4-2 in the division
3. Both are 10-4 in common games played
4. Both are 9-3 in the conference

It would come down to the fifth tie-breaker which is strength of victory, whoever's opponents has the highest winning percentage (in wins only). With 4 weeks to go, that is a toss up.

Well since we are playing playoff contenders and they are playing an easy schedule shouldn't we come out ahead there?

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Well since we are playing playoff contenders and they are playing an easy schedule shouldn't we come out ahead there?

It's only the winning percentage of the teams that you BEAT, not the teams that you played (If I understand that correctly).

As of week 13,

The combined record of teams that KC has beaten is 38-50 (.431).

The combined record of teams DEN has beaten is 56-43 (.565)

Now for the fifth tie-breaker to matter, KC would have to beat all winning teams, improving their opponents' winning percentage. At the same time, by virtue of KC winning those games, Denver's opponents winning percentage dips. Denver also plays some pretty poor teams in Balt, Oak and Buff.

So like I said, It still has to be played out.

[Calcountry]

Originally Posted by donkhater

Now there is a defeatist attitude. I've clearly outlined a scenario in which they could get in at 10-6. They could even rest their starters and lose the last game of the year to finish 10-6 and still get in. And it isn't even that outlandish.

This is an oxymoron