Is Greinke a lock for the Cy Young?

[Thig Lyfe]

These guys seem to think so.



I started losing track of the Royals once they started sucking hardcore again, but Greinke has still been great. I didn't think he'd stay in the Cy Young race just because of the lack of talent surrounding him. If he can manage 15 or 16 wins without any run support whatsoever, that's just as amazing of an accomplishment as the strikeout and ERA numbers.

(Not particularly sorry if repost)

[Deberg_1990]

I think he needs to win at least 18 games.

Heres a good story about it:


http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/435


For today, let's forget that the defense playing behind Zack Greinke is the worst in the American League.

Let's forget about their 94 errors, or that their collective Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.1) is about 25 percent worse than the next-worst AL team, which means that even Greinke's league-leading ERA is unfairly inflated.

* If you'll pardon the imperfect analogy, that's the difference between the production of Albert Pujols (1.104 OPS) and Casey Blake (.828 OPS) this season.

Greinke struck out a franchise-record 15 on walked just one against the Indians on Tuesday, a performance Indians manager Eric Wedge called the best he'd seen in the big leagues, but a performance that really wasn't one of Greinke's best three games THIS YEAR.

We are ignoring that Greinke ranks third in innings (181 1/3), second in strikeouts (197), second in strikeouts per walks (5.05), third in strikeouts per nine innings (9.78), first in opponents' OBP (.284), second in opponents' slugging (.362), and is tied for first in complete games (five), shutouts (two) and quality starts (21).

We are ignoring all that, at least right now.

Today's piece of Greinke-ganda is more related to the fact he ranks dead last in run support (4.72) among the 111 pitchers in baseball with 100 or more innings.

They say that Greinke's chances of winning the Cy Young Award are torpedoed because he is only 12-8, tied for seventh in the AL in wins, which is sort of like blaming a mechanic for not fixing your car when his only tools are duct tape and chicken wire.

This is a real concern, because in the 14 seasons since the last strike, only one AL Cy Young winner finished lower than second in wins. That was Pedro Martinez, at the height of his Pedro-ness in 2000, when he led the league with a ridiculous 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts -- and finished third with 18 wins.

Pitching wins, of course, are one of baseball's most notoriously misleading statistics, and based on very informal communication with my voting colleagues, we're all starting to realize that more and more every year.

But if Greinke continues in this final month anything close to what he's done in the first five, he will present the BBWAA voting bloc with a fascinating problem.

Greinke currently leads the league in ERA by 0.30, and if the season ended today the closest comparison might be the AL vote in 2003.

Pedro led the league with a 2.22 ERA, striking out 206 in 186 2/3 innings, but missed some time because of injury, making just 29 starts and finishing 14-4.

He was third in the Cy voting that year, behind Esteban Loaiza (21-9, 2.90 ERA) and winner Roy Halladay, who led the league with 22 wins and was fifth with a 3.25 ERA -- more than a run worse than Pedro.

The relevant questions here in regards to Zack's chances this year:

* How much did voters knock Pedro for missing what amounted to 20 percent of the season?

* How far have voters come in realizing how misleading pitcher wins can be?

It would be dishonest to say that Greinke's context -- pitching for the no-chance Royals -- should not be a factor at all. Pitching in a pennant race is tougher, I think we can agree on that, and especially in terms of award voting the tie should go to the guy who's pitched the more meaningful games.

But this isn't all that close, judging by either traditional stats like ERA or more advanced metrics like VORP (Greinke: 63.7, No. 2 Felix Hernandez: 51.6).

Consider that Greinke has taken losses in these games:

* 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K vs Anaheim on May 9

* 6 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K vs White Sox on July 3

* 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K vs Rangers on July 24

And consider that Greinke has no-decisions in these games:

* 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K vs Indians on May 21 (left with lead)

* 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K vs White Sox on May 31 (left with scored tied)

* 7 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K vs Indians on June 11 (left with lead)

* 7 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K vs Rays on July 18 (left with score tied)

* 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K vs Orioles on July 29 (left with lead)

* 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K vs Tigers on Aug. 14 (left with score tied)

That's nine "quality starts" for Greinke in which he's 0-3 with a 2.20 ERA.

Now, every pitcher runs into bad luck sometimes. But not like this. What if Greinke got wins just for the games in which he allowed zero or one earned run?

He gave up a combined three runs in 29 innings in those games. Seems fair enough to give him the wins, right?

Then he'd be 16-6 (two of the losses would become wins), which would lead all of baseball, and there really wouldn't be much of a debate as to who the AL Cy Young winner would be.

It'd be a shame if Greinke is punished for working with duct tape and chicken wire.

[reiko57]

no way they give it to him, he deserves it but he'll never get it

[KCChiefsMan]

they should have a category for pitchers that lose 1-0 or 2-1 or something.

[Sure-Oz]

zack would have 20 wins on a real team, probably finishe with 24

[sedated]

when it somes down to it, they still give the Cy Young to the person with the most of the stat that is the worst reflection of how good a pitcher is - wins.