ESPN on 49ers, & - is the zone read dead?

[Eleazar]

That sinking feeling for the 49ers
By Gregg Easterbrook | ESPN.com




Psssssttttttttttt. That's the sound of the air leaking out of the 49ers' balloon.

A few months ago, a mere three yards shy of Super Bowl victory, San Francisco was just pounded on its home field by the Indianapolis Colts. Not only did Andrew Luck defeat his former college coach, Jim Harbaugh, but also Harbaugh's former college assistant Pep Hamilton, now offensive coordinator at Indianapolis, composed a game plan that looked an awful lot like the Stanford offense.

"Awful" suddenly applies to the Niners. They've lost their last two outings by a combined 56-10. Since taking the field for the Super Bowl, San Francisco is 1-3. Sunday, the vaunted San Francisco defense was hapless; Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis repeatedly missed tackles. The Colts' defense -- 26th-ranked in 2012 -- dominated the Niners' vaunted offensive line. The San Francisco zone read that was unstoppable during the playoffs has turned unstartable. Star Aldon Smith is in limbo and star Frank Gore is in meltdown.

Colts leading 13-7 in the third quarter, on first down Colin Kaepernick was dropped for a loss trying to run the zone read. A second down rush was stuffed. On third-and-13, veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin made the rookie error of pulling up his pattern short of the first-down marker. Now it's fourth-and-4 on the Indianapolis 45 -- and Harbaugh/West sends in the punt unit! An offense that gained 468 yards in the Super Bowl punts on fourth-and-4 in opposition territory while trailing in the second half at home. Harbaugh/West might as well have left for a craft-brewed ale along the wharf. By the time San Francisco entered Indianapolis territory again, the score was 27-7 and the clock nearly expired.

Then there's the matter of the naked quarterback. Kaepernick has thrown for three touchdowns and four interceptions, with a 72.5 passer rating. At Kansas City, Alex Smith, sent packing to grant Kaepernick the San Francisco job, has four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 92.1 rating. Discounting for the 2012 San Francisco-St. Louis tie in which both played, since the beginning of last season, Smith is 9-2 as a starter, Kaepernick is 8-5. All of Kaepernick's starts are with a team many touts view as having the league's best roster. Three of Smith's starts have come with the worst team of 2012.

In August, this column supposed "Smith is the real deal. At the Niners, Harbaugh/West was so eager to showcase Kaepernick that Smith fell out of favor despite performing well. In Smith's final 2012 appearances with San Francisco, he combined to go 25 for 27 with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Should Smith play well in Andy Reid's pass-wacky system, this trade will be viewed as the year's steal."

Kaepernick is talented, but his emergence was tied to NFL defenders not knowing how to handle the zone read. Now they do, as Robert Griffin III has found. If the zone read recedes into the collector's case as just a flavor of the month, teams will go back to emphasizing the kind of tried-and-true passing tactics epitomized by Tom Brady, the Manning brothers, Drew Brees -- and Alex Smith. By season's end, will Niners faithful be wishing their team had kept Smith?

Speaking of whom, the Kansas City Chiefs, who had two victories in 2012, already have three in 2013. Perhaps they will go worst-to-first.

Last season the Colts and Vikings jumped from the cellar to the playoffs. In the NFL's format, with just four clubs per division, each member team has a 25 percent chance of finishing first, plus a bonus chance of a wild card. Eight divisions, each with four teams with a one-in-four shot at the title -- if victories were distributed by chance, each season there would be two worst-to-first outcomes. Turns out that in the last decade, there have been an average of 2.5 playoffs teams that were cellar-dwellers the previous year. So Kansas City's chances are good.

[Dunerdr]

Steal of the year we still gave up the house on a game regional manager...

[Eleazar]

This sort of reminds me of how the league was all abuzz about the Wildcat a few years ago, and defenses figured that out relatively quickly.

Having more skills in your tackle box is great, but you still have to be able to be a pocket passer to win in the league long-term.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

NFL defenses adjust rather quickly.

Yep. And now it's time for Colin to start really working at reading defenses. I liken it to that rookie sensation pitcher that will mow the whole league down the first half of the season but by the 2nd half after they have seen him a few times they start hitting him.

[KC Jones]

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

Yep. And now it's time for Colin to start really working at reading defenses. I liken it to that rookie sensation pitcher that will mow the whole league down the first half of the season but by the 2nd half after they have seen him a few times they start hitting him.

That's a terrible analogy. Baseball is a good awful boring sport.

[RippedmyFlesh]

To all you people who want a running qb take note. Pocket passers sustain success running qbs don't.

[saphojunkie]

Yeah... Kaepernick is going to be just fine. People are piling on because they (rightfully) hate Jim Habaugh and his bitch-ass entitled minions.

**** the miners. **** Harbaugh. **** Kaepernick.

But they'll be fine.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by RippedmyFlesh

To all you people who want a running qb take note. Pocket passers sustain success running qbs don't.

Except Randall Cunningham, but then he was pretty much both, and pretty much a better runner than we've seen since.

[Demonpenz]

I hate playing not to lose, but the simple fact is not turning over the ball gets you wins. And #winning is hard to come by in the #NFL

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by notorious

OUR RT GETS HIT EVERY PLAY!


****!

[oldandslow]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

I hate playing not to lose, but the simple fact is not turning over the ball gets you wins. And #winning is hard to come by in the #NFL

This. A million times over.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

Except Randall Cunningham, but then he was pretty much both, and pretty much a better runner than we've seen since.

He was an excellent QB who could also run. Elway and Young fall into that same category, though they're weren't AS good at running.

Guys who are excellent runners who can throw are NOT likely to be excellent NFL QBs.

[Red Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I told some of my buddies that Kaep would regress this season and be nothing more than average. I still stand by that.

Me too. Him and RG3...

[TEX]

KaeperTutt = Flash in the pan.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I told some of my buddies that Kaep would regress this season and be nothing more than average. I still stand by that.

I did as well. I said once defenses learn how to stop that Read / Option - Zone / Option stuff, he'll come back down to earth and be average at best. Then one guy proceeded to draft him in the 1st round in my FFL league. (QB Point -heavy league) He's in 9th out of 10.

[milkman]

Championships are won in the pocket.

Everything else is just window dressing.