Mellinger: Chiefs’ inability to stop the pass is too big a playoff weakness

[OnTheWarpath15]

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/12/24...-the-pass.html

After the Chiefs have lost in the playoffs and the obituaries of their season have been written, we will remember this team in two primary ways.

First, it’s the group that brought pride back to an organization that had lost its way, one of the great turnarounds in recent NFL history.

And second, it will be the team that kept alive the franchise’s 20-year drought of playoff wins because it could not stop the pass.

This season is such a wild ride, already. It started with the cloud of an embarrassing and shameful 2-14 team hanging overhead, then it picked up steam with a string of good breaks and overwhelming defense, and it’s now spinning its wheels uphill through the icy conditions of better competition.

What most people thought before the season was turned to fiction through the first nine games, and what many people thought through the first nine games has again been turned on its head by the last six.

Specifically, this is no longer a defense that fans should be confident with or a competent offense should be concerned with.

Even including a gift against an imploding team from Washington, the Chiefs are giving up 27.8 points per game since their bye week. They rank 21st in opponents’ yards per play (edging out No. 22 Jacksonville).

Their best cornerback from the first month or two of the season has been benched, and the results didn’t change. Their best cornerback from last year has been moved from the outside to the slot and now back to the outside, and the results didn’t change.

A defense that was the talk of the league through Halloween is now a liability against good quarterbacks, at a time when the Chiefs are unlikely to again face anything but a star quarterback.

The Chiefs’ four losses have clear similarities, starting with their inability to stop the pass.

In those losses, opposing quarterbacks completed 67 percent of their passes for an average of 340 yards with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. That’s a cumulative passer rating of 111.9. If you prefer ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating — it’s complicated, but it’s a scale of 0-100 with 50 being average — the Chiefs have given up QBRs of 66.5, 86.7, 97.2 and 55.5 in their losses.

In those losses, we saw Marcus Cooper bullied, Brandon Flowers beat, and Sean Smith complaining about penalties that were fairly called on him.

We’ve also seen circumstances that demand far more from the cornerbacks than should ever be asked — a neutered pass rush giving quarterbacks too much time and a lot of plays with only one safety deep to help.

Using Pro Football Focus’ numbers, almost without exception, the worst games for all three primary cornerbacks are the losses. Then again, the guys at the line of scrimmage aren’t doing their job, either: 6 1/2 sacks and 18.7 quarterback hits and hurries in the wins, compared to one-half sack and 13.2 hits and hurries in the losses.

Even watching video, without knowing assignments and schemes (and who is playing at less than full strength), dividing blame is a circular argument. Receivers are often open, at least in part, because the pass rush isn’t getting to the quarterback. The pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, at least in part, because receivers are open too quickly.

This week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid talked about how much of his team’s inability to stop the pass in the four losses is more on the pass rushers or pass defenders.

“I’d probably say there’s a combination of things,” he said. “The bottom line is we’re not having quite as much pressure on the quarterback. … Pressure and coverage kind of work together. Each (game) is a little different.

“You saw (against Indianapolis), we didn’t have guys covered. We’ve got to make sure we get that straight. … One breakdown, the quarterback sees it, there’s an issue. We need to make sure we get that better.”

You’ll notice there are separate bits of Reid’s answer that put the blame on the pass rush and the pass coverage.

There is enough blame to go around.

The expected return of Justin Houston will help, of course. Everything that defensive coordinator Bob Sutton wants to do is based on pressuring the quarterback, and even on a team with Tamba Hali, Houston is the best pass rusher.

But we’ve seen enough to know that Houston’s return will not be an instant and total fix. We’ve seen enough to know that the cornerbacks aren’t fast enough to keep up on deep routes, that they need more than one safety helping in the pass game, and that the coaches haven’t figured out how to properly defend against crossing routes.

The Chiefs have accomplished a lot this year. Jamaal Charles (offensive player of the year), Andy Reid (coach of the year) and John Dorsey (executive of the year) have strong cases for major postseason awards. The Chiefs should get at least five, and maybe as many as seven players in the Pro Bowl. They have grown from dysfunction to the playoffs, and that’s no small thing, even in the parity-driven NFL.

No matter what happens the rest of the way, this has been a successful and crucial season in the Chiefs regaining their fans’ trust.

But when the season ends with another playoff loss, the important thing will be to patch weaknesses in time to take advantage of the prime years for stars like Charles, Hali and Derrick Johnson.

Mostly, that means figuring out a way to stop the pass.

[mcaj22]

how do we get better corners?

We owe a lot to Smith and Flowers and how are we getting out of those contracts? Cutting them at eating the dead money? Where would the upgrade over them be? The draft? Cooper?

How many safeties do you acquire? A FS? and a SS? Their stubborness to keeping playing Berry as a freelancing LBer in the box hurts our back end safety coverage, so essentially we would need TWO starting safeties if they don't want to put him [Berry] in zone coverage on the back end.

So do we need a starting CB1 or CB2? Essentially giving up on one or two or all of Smith, Flowers, Cooper?

We definitely need a slot/nickel CB/cover guy in the worst way because nobody on this roster can do it.

Just wondering where (besides Lewis) the upgrades to stopping the pass would come from, other than trotting out almost the same unit next season due to the contracts the team is locked into.

[ClevelandBronco]

How does he feel about the Broncos' ongoing inability to stop any football team that happens to find itself in possession of the football?

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

Flowers is having one of the worst seasons I've seen from a chiefs DB. That says a lot

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by crossbow

Easy enough to fix. Just get better Corners, safties, and some wide receivers too. That is only about 15 players so we are really close. After we draft linemen in the first 3 rounds we can address those needs.

1.1

[Fritz88]

Originally Posted by dingleberry

almost every time we blitzed peyton manning his throws were short or off target

Why did he have trouble against SD, Indy, and NE?

We have better pass rushers overall.

I don't understand. It's not only the secondary. It seems to me that teams have really figured Sutton out, no?
Posted via Mobile Device

[dannybcaitlyn]

I blame all this shit on Sutton. There are teams out there with far less talent on defense that are able to get pressure on the same teams we've played. Its his job to put guys in favorable positions to suceed. They've made change at cornerback but still keep trotting lewis out a safety. You have to at least try someone else at the position. The safety that Tampa picked up from waivers from us should never been let go.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by ClevelandBronco

How does he feel about the Broncos' ongoing inability to stop any football team that happens to find itself in possession of the football?

I'm sure "he feels" that you're lucky to have a QB who can out-score your D's issues. As should you be happy about that...

[Fritz88]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

I blame all this shit on Sutton. There are teams out there with far less talent on defense that are able to get pressure on the same teams we've played. Its his job to put guys in favorable positions to suceed. They've made change at cornerback but still keep trotting lewis out a safety. You have to at least try someone else at the position. The safety that Tampa picked up from waivers from us should never been let go.

That's how I look at it. Sutton has to be more creative.

On the other hand, Milkman says that our front seven are exhausted. They need the rest.

I am channeling my inner true fan and saying that we are keeping the best playcalls for the playoffs. It's the only thing that gives me hope.

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

1) The OC seems to be too dumb )or conservative) to ride JC like the horse he is. But that's easily fixable, Andy just needs to put him on the quota system and tell him that if he doesn't meet his quota he'll be asked to stop calling the plays (in that game) before it's too late.

Doesn't Reid call the plays? That is what he said during preseason. Did that change?

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

I blame all this shit on Sutton. There are teams out there with far less talent on defense that are able to get pressure on the same teams we've played. Its his job to put guys in favorable positions to suceed. They've made change at cornerback but still keep trotting lewis out a safety. You have to at least try someone else at the position.

We don't know what they are seeing in practice. Reid and Sutton aren't stupid. If they had someone better they would have been playing him already.

Do you really think that they haven't thought of this yet?

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by splatbass

Doesn't Reid call the plays? That is what he said during preseason. Did that change?

Hmmmmmm, I don't know. And I just deleted the last few games I had taped. Crap! But I sure don't recall seeing Reid doing the covering-of-the-mouth-with-the-play card thing. If I'm wrong, then it's Andy who should be asked to take the rest of the game off from play-calling.

All I know is that somebody has been giving JC far too few touches, and because of that I think the other team's D can make it all the harder on our less-than-****ing-awesome WR group. Every little bit helps!

And I think everybody sees it. Perhaps the coaching staff does too, but it's not getting fixed. Now, if it's because JC is hurt, or they're resting him, **** (!!!!), I sure wish I had known that before I trotted the two sons out there last Sunday.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

I'll agree (more like agree) that the defense is indeed suspect and in trouble. In this day and age when defense is all but outlawed, it's not hard to go from awesome to awful with the loss of one key player. But we all knew that. And sans a stud defense, we don't have a stud offense to simply out-score another team. Why??? Well I see it as two reasons...


1) The OC seems to be too dumb )or conservative) to ride JC like the horse he is. But that's easily fixable, Andy just needs to put him on the quota system and tell him that if he doesn't meet his quota he'll be asked to stop calling the plays (in that game) before it's too late. Reacting quickly enough (which doesn't mean to over-react) is one of Andy's issues, and in his new life in KC, I think he needs to be willing to try a new trick. It's not impossible, I've seen people who eat the fat on their steak and pork rinds move to lots of veggies and grilled chicken, so people can change and adjust.


2) We don't have WRs worth much. Certainly they don't help to stretch the field, and out #1 seems to take plays off (not all, but some). Not to mention his work ethic is questionable, so we all live through his irritating non-receptions. And the rest of the staff is considered to be "not as good" (or they'd be #1). So where a Manning enjoys his God-given talent of threading the proverbial needle with a football, and hitting his WRs in perfect stride, our QB wasn't as blessed with pin-point accuracy, is far more often (than Manning) hoping not to be killed by the defense, and normally has to throw to the most open WRs who had a DB stuck to his back like the name on his jersey (because they are not faster than the defense's DBs).


So I agree, the Offense don't help the Defense enough, and the Defense doesn't help the Offense enough.


I hope Houston's return (which I thought was going to be last Sunday) make a HUGE difference on defense, but that does very little for the offense. And on the offense side of the ball if the OC doesn't get his head out of his ass, then we're screwed on that side of the ball...

Reid is calling the plays.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

Hmmmmmm, I don't know. And I just deleted the last few games I had taped. Crap! But I sure don't recall seeing Reid doing the covering-of-the-mouth-with-the-play card thing. If I'm wrong, then it's Andy who should be asked to take the rest of the game off from play-calling.

All I know is that somebody has been giving JC far too few touches, and because of that I think the other team's D can make it all the harder on our less-than-****ing-awesome WR group. Every little bit helps!

And I think everybody sees it. Perhaps the coaching staff does too, but it's not getting fixed. Now, if it's because JC is hurt, or they're resting him, **** (!!!!), I sure wish I had known that before I trotted the two sons out there last Sunday.

Have you ever watched an Andy Reid offense before this season?

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by milkman

Reid is calling the plays.

OK... Then Reid needs to be told to take the rest of the game off if he does it again...

But sorry, I had that wrong and I stand corrected...

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

A good QB will eat a blitz alive.

And we have been blitzing, and still not getting there.

I can't buy this as part and parcel - not that I'm saying you're completely incorrect in it being true to form quite a bit.

Other teams have found ways to sack, hurry, and put pressure on all of the top NFL QBs. Sure, you lineup with an obvious blitz and I'll expect a vet qb to sniff it out and know how to counter it with a hot read or changing the play at the line.

Simply put, it's on the D coordinator to continue to be creative and come up with formations to stay a step ahead like a good chess match. It doesn't seem to be the case that Sutton was able to make any changes once the league got enough tape on our defense to learn how to handle our attack.

Think of the great Steelers teams back when they had a top defensive mind running their zone blitz - and what made them so effective was their ability to continually keep you guessing on where they would bring pressure and fake it to drop back in coverage. Hell, they had plays that they ran where they'd send guys while dropping their defensive tackle into coverage.

There is no plausible excuse for the drop off in this defense and their play with the abundance of talent they have on that side of the ball without it being a direct indictment of a lack of defensive play calling or aptitude in implementing new schemes to take advantage of the talent.

I've heard talk about our offense back under Vermeil when Trent was at QB, and even from opposing players about the fact that they almost never ran the same plays in not only a game but through the course of the season- there was always variations of motion, initial formation, etc and so it kept opposing teams guessing because there was very little to spot from breaking the huddle. Yes, they could pick up on situational tendencies.

I get the sense that we have made very little evolution on the defensive side of the ball this year, and it doesn't look as if their play book has been expanding as the season has grown week to week. That's what worries me is that we simply do not have a coordinator that is creative and talented enough to keep taking full advantage of all the talent at his disposal on the defensive side of the ball- sort of the opposite of our outstanding Special Teams coach.