Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 208

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

penbrook · 12-05-2013, 03:42 PM

Sign Beltran.

Trade Butler and some prospects for David price.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 12-05-2013, 03:44 PM

You guys don't want Beltran playing RF at all. He made a fantastic play against the Dodgers (and one of the most important ones in the last decade), but his range is severely diminished. If you have to stick him in right to keep his bat in the lineup when you are in an NL park that makes sense, but otherwise you're getting someone who's likely to cost you two wins on defense.

BigCatDaddy · 12-05-2013, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Swap either Gordon or Beltran into the two spot so your 5 best hitters are getting the most at-bats, and I'm all good with this.

Royals should absolutely NOT use Boni in the 2 spot NOW, let alone if they add one more bat.

Look at it this way: Would you really want Boni to have 100 more ABs than Alex Gordon?

Sadly, Bonaficio batting in the 2 just screams Ned Yost

DJ's left nut · 12-05-2013, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He's a FA after this year. Which I believe is standard for international FA. Typical arb rules do not apply.

Re: the Royals draft pick... (general point, not directed at DJ):

Remember that the Royals likely have a comp pick coming back for Ervin Santana as well. Losing No. 19 or 20 isn't great, but having that comp pick coming back makes up for it, a little bit.

When you get down into the late teens/20s, those picks are largely indistinguishable from picks in the 30s, anyway. It's usually more about budget, what you can pay, what the relationship is, etc. at that point than about draft slot.

See: Manaea, Sean.

Still very much an opportunity cost.

Cardinals fans were citing the 'Beltran pick' as justification to go waste a pick signing Stephen Drew. Well that's dumb. Just because the Beltran pick was found money doesn't mean it wasn't spendable money. It's still a first round pick. You still get a significant boost to your draft allotment (allowing you to chase guys like Manaea) and you get one more lotto ticket.

You can either have 2 first rounders after Santana signs elsewhere...or one if you turn around and sign Beltran. So the cost of Beltran is still a first rounder.

The only thing that could change that calculus would be if you got your draft pick 'paid in cash' through reduced contract leverage from Beltran. Studies have shown that the average comp pick is going to generate about 2 WAR over the first 6 years of team control. After signing bonuses, etc... are calculated, the actual cash value of a comp pick is about $6 million. So if Beltran came $6 million cheaper because of the draft pick compensation tied to him, the Royals have essentially 'cashed out' their pick.

But that's not happening here - Beltran appears to be in the driver's seat, with multiple teams not terribly concerned about the draft pick. So the Royals don't even get to trade the pick for cash. It's likely just gone. When you consider the impact on the draft signing pool, that's doubly damaging.

Nah, I'd have a real hard time giving up a pick here, even if they do get one back for Santana.

ChiefsCountry · 12-05-2013, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penbook

Sign Beltran.

Trade Butler and some prospects for David price.

**alnorth** · 12-05-2013, 03:50 PM

The Mariners have reportedly offered Cano 10/240

**DeezNutz** · 12-05-2013, 03:50 PM

The other thing to remember about Cain, besides the fact that he's the glass man, is that he cannot hit for shit.

ChiefsCountry · 12-05-2013, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

The Mariners have reportedly offered Cano 10/240

Nintendo wanting to spend some cash.

tyton75 · 12-05-2013, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

The other thing to remember about Cain, besides the fact that he's the glass man, is that he cannot hit for shit.

agreed.. Cain can't hit and isn't patient at the plate at all. I wouldn't mind see him starting in AAA this season.

Sannyasi · 12-05-2013, 03:55 PM

I don't think we traded for Aoki so we could turn around and get rid of Cain. That just doesn't make sense to me. Even with the injuries, Cain was a 3.2 WAR player in 2013 thanks to his defense.

BigCatDaddy · 12-05-2013, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sannyasi

I don't think we traded for Aoki so we could turn around and get rid of Cain. That just doesn't make sense to me. Even with the injuries, Cain was a 3.2 WAR player in 2013 thanks to his defense.

I'd keep him insurance as well. Beltan wasn't exactly an iron man through out his career.

penbrook · 12-05-2013, 03:58 PM

Off topic but Nelson Mandela has died

Coach · 12-05-2013, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Yeah, the more reading and thinking I do on it, I think Dayton made a really good trade.

I think it's a great trade.

The guy was a 3.0 WAR in 2013, and in 2012, he was a 3.5 WAR.

2012 OBP was .355 and in 2013, .356. He was OPS'ing .787 and .727, which is pretty solid for a leadoff hitter. Now that the Royals got a leadoff hitter, then this could mean that Gordon will go back to the middle of the line-up.

**DeezNutz** · 12-05-2013, 04:05 PM

Yeah, on paper, in December, this looks like a win for the Royals.

BWillie · 12-05-2013, 04:19 PM

I'm not very high on David Lough either, so I like this deal for the most part. Don't think Will Smith would end up more than a bottom feeding #5 or swingman. Aoki seems to be better than any other option in the OF not named Alex Gordon. 3 - 3.5 WAR last two years with good amount of service time under his belt.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1200308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,201

12-05-2013, 03:42 PM	#3106
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Sign Beltran. Trade Butler and some prospects for David price.
Posts: 16,409

12-05-2013, 03:44 PM	#3107
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7919572	You guys don't want Beltran playing RF at all. He made a fantastic play against the Dodgers (and one of the most important ones in the last decade), but his range is severely diminished. If you have to stick him in right to keep his bat in the lineup when you are in an NL park that makes sense, but otherwise you're getting someone who's likely to cost you two wins on defense. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
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12-05-2013, 03:50 PM	#3111
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	The Mariners have reportedly offered Cano 10/240 __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
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12-05-2013, 03:55 PM	#3115
Sannyasi Veteran Join Date: Jan 2010 Casino cash: $9963714	I don't think we traded for Aoki so we could turn around and get rid of Cain. That just doesn't make sense to me. Even with the injuries, Cain was a 3.2 WAR player in 2013 thanks to his defense.
Posts: 2,615

12-05-2013, 03:58 PM	#3117
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Off topic but Nelson Mandela has died
Posts: 16,409

12-05-2013, 04:19 PM	#3120
BWillie El Gato Gordo Loco Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Earth Casino cash: $1881241	I'm not very high on David Lough either, so I like this deal for the most part. Don't think Will Smith would end up more than a bottom feeding #5 or swingman. Aoki seems to be better than any other option in the OF not named Alex Gordon. 3 - 3.5 WAR last two years with good amount of service time under his belt. __________________ Who wants free money? Use the link below to sign up at Bovada, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker and Ignition. Contact me for private deals, spot bonuses, possible rakeback or any questions! Bovada, Ignition, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker: baldeaglepoker.com Bovada Poker is back! Get up to $500 poker deposit bonus.
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