Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 209

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

penbrook · 12-05-2013, 04:22 PM

Al Leiter thinks Beltran lands in KC.

BigCatDaddy · 12-05-2013, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penbook

Al Leiter thinks Beltran lands in KC.

What does he think about Mendela?

duncan_idaho · 12-05-2013, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Still very much an opportunity cost.

Cardinals fans were citing the 'Beltran pick' as justification to go waste a pick signing Stephen Drew. Well that's dumb. Just because the Beltran pick was found money doesn't mean it wasn't spendable money. It's still a first round pick. You still get a significant boost to your draft allotment (allowing you to chase guys like Manaea) and you get one more lotto ticket.

You can either have 2 first rounders after Santana signs elsewhere...or one if you turn around and sign Beltran. So the cost of Beltran is still a first rounder.

The only thing that could change that calculus would be if you got your draft pick 'paid in cash' through reduced contract leverage from Beltran. Studies have shown that the average comp pick is going to generate about 2 WAR over the first 6 years of team control. After signing bonuses, etc... are calculated, the actual cash value of a comp pick is about $6 million. So if Beltran came $6 million cheaper because of the draft pick compensation tied to him, the Royals have essentially 'cashed out' their pick.

But that's not happening here - Beltran appears to be in the driver's seat, with multiple teams not terribly concerned about the draft pick. So the Royals don't even get to trade the pick for cash. It's likely just gone. When you consider the impact on the draft signing pool, that's doubly damaging.

Nah, I'd have a real hard time giving up a pick here, even if they do get one back for Santana.

Yeah. I'm not convinced the 3/$48 million offer is from KC. We know KC has made a 3 year deal, but in listening to Olney and a few other guys talk about it, I think it's possible KC's offer is for a bit less money.

I definitely love the value of that pick and like the idea of having No. 19, the comp pick for Santana, and the competitive balance pick. Would give KC three of the top 40 or so picks and a big pool to play with.

Just pointing out that the ability to be creative in the draft is not completely blown if you lose the first round pick as compensation for Beltran.

The pick is valuable... but is it more valuable than adding a player who provides the following:

Middle of order bat
Big season ticket sales boost/PR boost
Well-loved local figure
Chance to have another HOF player go in as a Royal

penbrook · 12-05-2013, 04:51 PM

Brian Kenny calling Aoki a Anti Francouer.

BlackHelicopters · 12-05-2013, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

What does he think about Mendela?

**Shogun** · 12-05-2013, 04:52 PM

Question for all of you. How much Longer do we give Moose and Escobar to turn it around at the plate? Reasonably.

BlackHelicopters · 12-05-2013, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shogun

Question for all of you. How much Longer do we give Moose and Escobar to turn it around at the plate? Reasonably.

Does Escobar have options like Moose? I say give them the first month of the season, then send them to Omaha. I hope Moose gets in shape. I can tolerate Escobar because of his D. But Escobar looked uninterested at the plate this year, for whatever reason. Moose looked overmatched and over weight.

chiefsfan987 · 12-05-2013, 04:59 PM

With the deal for Aoki I think we should just bow out of the Beltran sweepstakes and go after a 3B instead. Moose blows and he needs competition over there to light a fire under his butt. I don't want us to waste half a season again not having anyone to come up and replace him when he's awful yet again to start the first 3 months of the season. His free ride at 3B should needs to be over. Make him earn it and if he can't win the job get us someone who at least is serviceable over there.

DJ's left nut · 12-05-2013, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shogun

Question for all of you. How much Longer do we give Moose and Escobar to turn it around at the plate? Reasonably.

Looked at the state of the positions lately? You'll likely be giving them as long as they need.

David Freese, who frankly sucked last year, has arthritis in his ankles, a drinking problem and will make about $6 million next season, netted the best defensive CFer in baseball and a guy that hit 20+ HRs in AA his first time through it at 21 (while also winning a minor league GG). 3b is friggen thin. It's gonna be damn hard to find someone that's more valuable than Moose over there if for no other reason than his occasionally stellar defense.

Escobar - same story. The guys a plus plus defender and the position is just bereft of talent. If he keeps playing GG defense, you may just have to live with it. When Mondesi is ready, he'll probably end up displacing him but that's going to take some time still.

DJ's left nut · 12-05-2013, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefsfan987

With the deal for Aoki I think we should just bow out of the Beltran sweepstakes and go after a 3B instead. Moose blows and he needs competition over there to light a fire under his butt. I don't want us to waste half a season again not having anyone to come up and replace him when he's awful yet again to start the first 3 months of the season. His free ride at 3B should needs to be over. Make him earn it and if he can't win the job get us someone who at least is serviceable over there.

Do you really want to move on from Moustakas to make room for Michael Young or Juan Uribe?

Those are probably the 2 best 3b options out there.

**gblowfish** · 12-05-2013, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

Does Escobar have options like Moose? I say give them the first month of the season, then send them to Omaha. I hope Moose gets in shape. I can tolerate Escobar because of his D. But Escobar looked uninterested at the plate this year, for whatever reason. Moose looked overmatched and over weight.

Moose is playing winter ball. Both he and Butler both need to show up to spring training in better condition. Both those guys looked doughy and slow all year long.

They need to get on Alex Gordon's routine.

If worst came to worst, we could move Alex back to 3B, but it would hurt to have to give up a gold glove in left. If Moose goes oh for the first three months of the season, it may force such a move.

**Shogun** · 12-05-2013, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Looked at the state of the positions lately? You'll likely be giving them as long as they need.

David Freese, who frankly sucked last year, has arthritis in his ankles, a drinking problem and will make about $6 million next season, netted the best defensive CFer in baseball and a guy that hit 20+ HRs in AA his first time through it at 21 (while also winning a minor league GG). 3b is friggen thin. It's gonna be damn hard to find someone that's more valuable than Moose over there if for no other reason than his occasionally stellar defense.

Escobar - same story. The guys a plus plus defender and the position is just bereft of talent. If he keeps playing GG defense, you may just have to live with it. When Mondesi is ready, he'll probably end up displacing him but that's going to take some time still.

I know you're right, ive already looked at the FA list after this season and its pretty bleak. I don't keep up much with other teams farm system and what they have but there is still hope that somebody nice shines and gets dealt. Profar please

Shortstops

Mike Aviles (34) - club option
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Yunel Escobar (32) - $5MM club option
J.J. Hardy (32)
Derek Jeter (41)
Jed Lowrie (31)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) - club/vesting option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) - vesting/club/player option

Third basemen

Alberto Callaspo (32)
Jack Hannahan (35) - $4MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Chase Headley (31)
Donnie Murphy (32)
Nick Punto (37) - club/vesting option
Aramis Ramirez (37) - mutual option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Pablo Sandoval (28)
Ty Wigginton (37)

duncan_idaho · 12-05-2013, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shogun

Question for all of you. How much Longer do we give Moose and Escobar to turn it around at the plate? Reasonably.

Moustakas gets a month. Escobar longer. Need at least .250/.290/.375 from Escobar for his glove to make him worth it.

That's why bringing in another 2B option is so critical. DO that, and Boni is your insurance at 3B.

**Anyong Bluth** · 12-05-2013, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Nintendo wanting to spend some cash.

Is he getting paid in Wii Us?

chiefsfan987 · 12-05-2013, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Do you really want to move on from Moustakas to make room for Michael Young or Juan Uribe?

Those are probably the 2 best 3b options out there.

They need to do something. We can't have him going into another season with no one to back him up. Perhaps we should trade a bullpen arm for a 3B prospect. I just keep seeing last year where if only we'd have had someone in our minors that Dayton believed in to bring up when frenchy/moose stunk it up we could have won a couple more games and maybe it would have been enough to make the playoffs. I don't want it to happen again where we don't have anyone to bring up and just have to ride out the suck.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1470308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,147

12-05-2013, 04:22 PM	#3121
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Al Leiter thinks Beltran lands in KC.
Posts: 16,409

12-05-2013, 04:51 PM	#3124
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Brian Kenny calling Aoki a Anti Francouer.
Posts: 16,409

12-05-2013, 04:59 PM	#3128
chiefsfan987 MVP Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Seattle, WA Casino cash: $8678441	With the deal for Aoki I think we should just bow out of the Beltran sweepstakes and go after a 3B instead. Moose blows and he needs competition over there to light a fire under his butt. I don't want us to waste half a season again not having anyone to come up and replace him when he's awful yet again to start the first 3 months of the season. His free ride at 3B should needs to be over. Make him earn it and if he can't win the job get us someone who at least is serviceable over there.
Posts: 6,177