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02-19-2013, 07:53 AM | |
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Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1
You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders. That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile? The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round." Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks. But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position. Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine. Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated. Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months. Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round. Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel. No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o. Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides: 1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see. 2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player. 3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round? Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2LLwcLLId |
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02-20-2013, 01:34 PM | #301 |
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Here are some first round draft numbers:
Over the past 20 years, 45 QBs have been drafted in the first round. 29 of them (64%) had a better better win percentage during their time with the team that drafted them than that team had during the 3 years prior to their draft. That is to say, 64% of them improved their teams. That does not include Eli or Rivers, neither of whom played at all for the team that drafted them. Here are the percentage of first rounders by position that improved their teams: QB: 64% (Improved their team by an average of 0.58 wins/season) RB: 57% (0.48) DT: 55% (0.12) WR: 54% (0.27) S: 54% (0.42) DE: 51% (-0.08) OT: 51% (0.14) LB 51% (0.54) OG 45% (-0.05) TE 45% (-0.07) CB 45% (-0.31) OC 27% (-0.77) K 0% (-0.36) So. Draft a QB. |
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02-20-2013, 01:35 PM | #302 | |
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It's pretty much impossible to look at something like that with no hindsight glasses on, because we know the end game. We can take the scouting report they had as a prospect, hold it up to what they are now, and see what matches up. IMO, you can't effectively analyze and/or compare prospects accross time, because you can't take that element out of it. Which is why the whole Luck/RGIII stuff is somewhat overblown, just as the "he's no DT etc." |
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02-20-2013, 01:36 PM | #303 | |
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HUGE difference. Tom Brady won put a team on his shoulders and won a Super Bowl in Year Two. Kaepernick led his team to a Super Bowl in Year Two. Collins led the Panthers to the NFC Championship in Year Two. Etc. and so on. Just because scouts missed on guys doesn't mean that the players weren't ready to lead a team. |
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02-20-2013, 01:37 PM | #304 | |
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We know for a fact what those others DID as a pro. We have no idea what Smith will become. It's just not a real good road to head down, IMO. |
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02-20-2013, 01:37 PM | #305 |
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02-20-2013, 01:38 PM | #306 | |
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Forgive me for listing the quarterbacks that have been to the recent superbowls and asking "what skills do these guys have that Geno doesn't and which were better PROSPECTS coming out of college. |
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02-20-2013, 01:39 PM | #307 |
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Actually, from what I've read and seen at this point, I think Smith and Barkley are both first round prospects. Where in the first round is what the next month or two will determine.
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02-20-2013, 01:41 PM | #308 | |
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YOU have no idea how Eugene Smith will play in the NFL. None. Not ONE iota. Because you WANT him to be drafted by the Chiefs and WANT him to play well, you're PROJECTING when in reality, you have absolutely no idea where he'll land or how he will perform. If you're going to ask that question of Smith, why not ask it of Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, Dysert and Manuel? And even if you did, it would be an empty response made up of pure CONJECTURE, not fact. |
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02-20-2013, 01:43 PM | #309 | |
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It's conjecture: Guys sit around and try to match players with needs. That's it. And they all read each other's mock drafts and influence each because they want to be seen as "right" at the end of the day. It's a pointless exercise, especially this early in the process. |
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02-20-2013, 01:44 PM | #310 | |
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02-20-2013, 01:47 PM | #311 | |
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I CLEARLY asked for everyone to look at the players that made it to the superbowl and then trying to look back at them WHEN THEY WERE COMING OUT OF COLLEGE and seeing how Geno stacks up to them at that point. If you don't think that can be looked at objectively, I guess I can't help you because all YOU ever saw were 2 ****ing games that Geno Smith has EVER played. His worst two games of his career, to boot. If someone else would have done that at any point in the last few years, you would clown them. Some of us have watched nearly every game of his from the last two years. |
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02-20-2013, 01:50 PM | #312 | |
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02-20-2013, 01:53 PM | #313 |
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No where does your post say "Prospects".
You asked who was better coming out of college. First off, that can't be answered because Smith hasn't played in the NFL yet but I think it's safe to say that many of those players, especially Brady, were missed by scouts. |
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02-20-2013, 01:56 PM | #314 |
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Chill out Dane, that's what he meant.
As a prospect, Geno is superior to guys who are 6 feet tall, and superior to almost every guy who only had one year of decent production...like Tannehill.
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02-20-2013, 01:58 PM | #315 | |
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What matter is the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs said that there is NO QB in this draft worthy of a first round grade. Period. End of story. That's the SAME EXACT THING that's been said by reporters and scouts during the 2012 college season and the 2013 offseason. Now, due to need, a QB or two might be chosen in the first round but that doesn't mean that they're true first round talent. Some teams will just "roll the dice". All this blather and bluster about "I've watched "film" is ridiculous nonsense, especially BEFORE THE COMBINES. And JFC, the guy didn't show up at the Senior Bowl and those that did, sucked ass. So all this "Oh, the draft class is no weaker than in year's past" is absolute garbage. Especially considering not one of these guys has played a down in the NFL. |
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