Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 218

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

duncan_idaho · 12-06-2013, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeatRock

This is the dumbest shit i have ever read. This can only happen IF Beltran is already here and signed and even then, Butler for Franklin straight up? No thanks.

Would be better off doing something like signing Mark Ellis to a cheap contract. Ellis put up a 3 WAR last year. Apparently, 2B was TERRIBLE last year, because hitting .270/.323/.351 like Ellis did was good enough to produce 1.8 oWAR (b).

Or just calling up Colon and seeing if he can OPS .700. If he can, he's likely just as valuable as Ellis.

MeatRock · 12-06-2013, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Ultimate way to look at it:

Trading Billy Butler for Nick Franklin is really little different than trading Billy Butler for Mike Moustakas.

I don't think people realize how ABJECTLY AWFUL Franklin was once the league got a look at him. I'll say it again:

.172/.274/.264
2 HR
57 SO
163 AB

That's a 35 percent K rate and a spike of 10 percent over his first 200 AB.

That's ugly. Butler's been a consistent 15-20 HR guy with a .300 avg. damn near is entire career.

**Anyong Bluth** · 12-06-2013, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

That is ****ing terrible! Look at those ****ing bums! I brought this up in the trade Butler thread and everyone agreed....Billy is still fatter than all of them!!!

You mean all of them combined versus Billy's weight alone, right?

teedubya · 12-06-2013, 06:21 PM

Can we trade Prison Bitch for a sack of dog shit to be named later?

**lewdog** · 12-06-2013, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teedubya

Can we trade Prison Bitch for a sack of dog shit to be named later?

PB not fat enough.

**alnorth** · 12-06-2013, 06:34 PM

I'm fine with projections, they can be pretty valuable but you have to know how to use them.

Projections give you expected value. What people sometimes overlook is the expected variance that you don't usually get from the projections. If someone's been in the league 6 or 7 years and has been pretty steady, they may have an up year or a down year, but until age begins to set in the variance is going to be pretty low.

Butler is going to OPS about .830, +/- 0.060

Nick Franklin may OPS about .710 which looks good at 2B, but with roughly a +/- 0.150.

That kind of error reduces his value well below Butler. Projections are incomplete if you don't consider how likely that the projection is right, there is a lot of value in proving you aren't a fluke over several seasons.

nychief · 12-06-2013, 06:43 PM

This assumption we are going to sign Beltran is stupid. The Yankees are on the war path... It's never going to happen.

**alnorth** · 12-06-2013, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nychief

This assumption we are going to sign Beltran is stupid. The Yankees are on the war path... It's never going to happen.

The Yankees seem to sticking to their guns when they say they absolutely won't do something. They said there's no way they would pay Cano over $175MM, and they didn't budge. They said they won't go over 2 years for Beltran, and they won't.

Maybe Texas or someone else will swoop in, but Boston and NYY have been adamant about not going more than 2 years, and Beltran wants 3.

edit: and they are probably going to sign Choo, so they wont even need Beltran.

penbrook · 12-06-2013, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nychief

This assumption we are going to sign Beltran is stupid. The Yankees are on the war path... It's never going to happen.

Reports from Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal say the Yanks are gonna go after Shin Soo Choo..

penbrook · 12-06-2013, 06:49 PM

Beltran wants to be back in KC and Moore wants it to happen but IDK if Glass wants to spend.

Moore said there trying to get another SP and another bat to put in their lineup.

BWillie · 12-06-2013, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strongside

Moose's struggles feel a lot like Gordon's a few years ago. I think he has a solid year.

Alex Gordon never, ever, ever struggled as bad as Moose. In fact, I was always confused why people gave Alex so much shit at first. He wasn't even that bad. Then he got hurt, had an abbreviated season and people just assumed he sucked. Moustakas is just a no talent ass clown who's lucky to be here because somebody somewhere thought in the draft he could be an elite power hitter. That son of a bitch better be injecting steroids in his ass as we speak or running the stairs. But I bet he's playing Call of Duty and eating some funyuns instead.

Mama Hip Rockets · 12-06-2013, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Lulz, whole lotta stupid on this thread. Oliver projections have Franklin at 3 war/per the next five years with Butler less than half that. Small markets must make trades like this. It's a total no brainer to me, ESP if Beltran comes

If by no brainer you mean an idea that confirms you have no brain, then I agree.

Prison Bitch · 12-06-2013, 07:55 PM

I don't create the Oliver projections. Email Fangraphs and tell them you're a Royals fan who thinks such a trade is bad. Then don't take it personally when they laugh at you.

Prison Bitch · 12-06-2013, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeatRock

That's ugly. Butler's been a consistent 15-20 HR guy with a .300 avg. damn near is entire career.

Here are the 10year ZiPS for Franklin/Cano, as suggested by a tweet that's really far back in my timeline somewhere.

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/stat...09086441598976

penbrook · 12-06-2013, 08:07 PM

Red Sox re sign Napoli

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1200308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,201

12-06-2013, 06:21 PM	#3259
teedubya Most Valuable Poster Join Date: Oct 2003 Casino cash: $9460002	Can we trade Prison Bitch for a sack of dog shit to be named later?
Posts: 36,664

12-06-2013, 06:34 PM	#3261
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	I'm fine with projections, they can be pretty valuable but you have to know how to use them. Projections give you expected value. What people sometimes overlook is the expected variance that you don't usually get from the projections. If someone's been in the league 6 or 7 years and has been pretty steady, they may have an up year or a down year, but until age begins to set in the variance is going to be pretty low. Butler is going to OPS about .830, +/- 0.060 Nick Franklin may OPS about .710 which looks good at 2B, but with roughly a +/- 0.150. That kind of error reduces his value well below Butler. Projections are incomplete if you don't consider how likely that the projection is right, there is a lot of value in proving you aren't a fluke over several seasons. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

12-06-2013, 06:43 PM	#3262
nychief MVP Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: NYC Casino cash: $6869466	This assumption we are going to sign Beltran is stupid. The Yankees are on the war path... It's never going to happen. __________________ Good Time Charlie, Uncle Doobie and the Great Frisco Freakout.
Posts: 7,899

12-06-2013, 06:49 PM	#3265
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Beltran wants to be back in KC and Moore wants it to happen but IDK if Glass wants to spend. Moore said there trying to get another SP and another bat to put in their lineup.
Posts: 16,409

12-06-2013, 07:55 PM	#3268
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	I don't create the Oliver projections. Email Fangraphs and tell them you're a Royals fan who thinks such a trade is bad. Then don't take it personally when they laugh at you.
Posts: 87,025

12-06-2013, 08:07 PM	#3270
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	Red Sox re sign Napoli
Posts: 16,409