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#3256 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
Casino cash: $1190308
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Quote:
Or just calling up Colon and seeing if he can OPS .700. If he can, he's likely just as valuable as Ellis.
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"You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra |
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Posts: 21,201
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#3257 | |
Seasons in the Abyss
Join Date: Jan 2010
Casino cash: $10010596
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Posts: 4,746
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#3258 |
Deus ambulans inter homines
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Casino cash: $9649340
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You mean all of them combined versus Billy's weight alone, right?
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Posts: 14,918
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#3259 |
Most Valuable Poster
Join Date: Oct 2003
Casino cash: $9460002
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Can we trade Prison Bitch for a sack of dog shit to be named later?
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Posts: 36,664
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#3260 |
Mod Team
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Valley of the hot as ****
Casino cash: $1331900
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Posts: 45,754
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#3261 |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Casino cash: $57156239
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I'm fine with projections, they can be pretty valuable but you have to know how to use them.
Projections give you expected value. What people sometimes overlook is the expected variance that you don't usually get from the projections. If someone's been in the league 6 or 7 years and has been pretty steady, they may have an up year or a down year, but until age begins to set in the variance is going to be pretty low. Butler is going to OPS about .830, +/- 0.060 Nick Franklin may OPS about .710 which looks good at 2B, but with roughly a +/- 0.150. That kind of error reduces his value well below Butler. Projections are incomplete if you don't consider how likely that the projection is right, there is a lot of value in proving you aren't a fluke over several seasons.
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Posts: 36,130
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#3262 |
MVP
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NYC
Casino cash: $6869466
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This assumption we are going to sign Beltran is stupid. The Yankees are on the war path... It's never going to happen.
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Good Time Charlie, Uncle Doobie and the Great Frisco Freakout. |
Posts: 7,899
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#3263 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Casino cash: $57156239
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Quote:
Maybe Texas or someone else will swoop in, but Boston and NYY have been adamant about not going more than 2 years, and Beltran wants 3. edit: and they are probably going to sign Choo, so they wont even need Beltran.
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Posts: 36,130
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#3264 |
LEGEND!
Join Date: Feb 2013
Casino cash: $10033840
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Posts: 16,409
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#3265 |
LEGEND!
Join Date: Feb 2013
Casino cash: $10033840
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Beltran wants to be back in KC and Moore wants it to happen but IDK if Glass wants to spend.
Moore said there trying to get another SP and another bat to put in their lineup. |
Posts: 16,409
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#3266 |
El Gato Gordo Loco
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Earth
Casino cash: $1871241
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Alex Gordon never, ever, ever struggled as bad as Moose. In fact, I was always confused why people gave Alex so much shit at first. He wasn't even that bad. Then he got hurt, had an abbreviated season and people just assumed he sucked. Moustakas is just a no talent ass clown who's lucky to be here because somebody somewhere thought in the draft he could be an elite power hitter. That son of a bitch better be injecting steroids in his ass as we speak or running the stairs. But I bet he's playing Call of Duty and eating some funyuns instead.
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Posts: 46,572
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#3267 |
You don't faze me, Gobble.
Join Date: Dec 2005
Casino cash: $10005644
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If by no brainer you mean an idea that confirms you have no brain, then I agree.
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Posts: 13,675
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#3268 |
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
Casino cash: $5450159
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I don't create the Oliver projections. Email Fangraphs and tell them you're a Royals fan who thinks such a trade is bad. Then don't take it personally when they laugh at you.
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Posts: 87,025
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Prison Bitch |
This message has been deleted by Prison Bitch.
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#3269 | |
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
Casino cash: $5450159
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Quote:
Here are the 10year ZiPS for Franklin/Cano, as suggested by a tweet that's really far back in my timeline somewhere. ![]() https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/stat...09086441598976 |
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Posts: 87,025
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#3270 |
LEGEND!
Join Date: Feb 2013
Casino cash: $10033840
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Red Sox re sign Napoli
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Posts: 16,409
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