Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 22

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

tk13 · 08-26-2013, 08:42 PM

They actually spent a solid chunk of time talking about the Royals on Baseball Tonight... kind of surprising considering the last couple weeks. Mentioned how good Billy Butler has been since the All-Star break, talked about him for a while, then the Shields trade. The analysts all still thought it was the right move... a risk, but the right move. Basically thought if the Royals kept Myers there's no way they'll beat the Tigers trying to outscore them. With decent starting pitching they'll have a chance.

ReynardMuldrake · 08-26-2013, 08:45 PM

Not Royals related but kinda funny:

**Dartgod** · 08-26-2013, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

...but he's basically providing David Lough value at an insane sticker price.

Good Lord, you're a ****ing moron.

Sure-Oz · 08-26-2013, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

Not Royals related but kinda funny:

Prison Bitch · 08-26-2013, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Good Lord, you're a ****ing moron.

Dumb shit doesn't know what WAR is or how to look up salaries. Gordon is at 2.4 now and Lough is 1.8 despite having 1/2 the plate appearances. But thanks for playing!

BWillie · 08-26-2013, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Dumb shit doesn't know what WAR is or how to look up salaries. Gordon is at 2.4 now and Lough is 1.8 despite having 1/2 the plate appearances. But thanks for playing!

If Lough ever goes a whole yr with more WAR than Alex Gordon with similar # at bats ill give you $1000. WhenIits said and done David Lough will be lucky to be a .265 hitter with very little power and isnt great at walking. Babip doesnt apply to all players the same. Players like Gordon have a high line drive rate so duh this BABIP is going to be higher. Hacks like Moustakas pop up virtually on every at bat and never hit line drives so obviously their BABIP will be much lower. BABIP is not a tool you look at solely, its a tool you look at in relation to other sabermetrics

Chiefspants · 08-27-2013, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

If Lough ever goes a whole yr with more WAR than Alex Gordon with similar # at bats ill give you $1000. WhenIits said and done David Lough will be lucky to be a .265 hitter with very little power and isnt great at walking. Babip doesnt apply to all players the same. Players like Gordon have a high line drive rate so duh this BABIP is going to be higher. Hacks like Moustakas pop up virtually on every at bat and never hit line drives so obviously their BABIP will be much lower. BABIP is not a tool you look at solely, its a tool you look at in relation to other sabermetrics

Yeah, I tend to look at the LD rate over BABIP nowadays.

duncan_idaho · 08-27-2013, 09:37 AM

My thoughts on advanced stats:

BABIP is a useful tool. It gives you a quick glance at how lucky a player is getting. But you have to put it in context. For most players, BABIP is closely tied to LD%. Typically, a player's batting average will be his BABIP +180-200.

Fast players tend to have a higher BABIP because they garner more infield hits, which is important to consider. And some guys just consistently have an extremely high BABIP (Derek Jeter being the most consistent example).

You can't look at a guy's BABIP and stop there. LD% is closely tied.

HR/FB is also an important factor.

As for WAR... WAR in small sample sizes/WAR for bench players has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Take a guy like Jarrod Dyson, who is used in basically perfect situations for him. He rarely hits against LHP, which he is highly susceptible to. He doesn't get a ton of at-bats, so the flaws in his approach/swing are less exposed (and there is less tape on him). He's used a lot in pinch-running situations, giving him a chance to shine there. And he plays CF, which maximizes his defensive value.

That's why a guy with a .650 OPS last season posted a 1.1 oWAR.

I think Lough is a more legitimate major league player than Dyson. I like him a LOT and think he's an incredibly value (and nearly perfect) 4th OF. He can play all 3 positions at a plus level. He's a good baserunner and can swipe bags. He has a good approach and makes good contact against both RHP and LHP.

But Lough is not a 4.5-5 win player over the course of a full season. I think he's a guy who can consistently give you 2.5 WAR off the bench, with about 250-300 AB (60 or so starts, several late inning switches).

One of the big failings in using sabremetrics, IMO, is taking numbers in a small or limited sample size, and projecting them to a full season without taking into account some of the factors we're talking about here.

A platoon guy might be able to put up 2 WAR when protected from his same-side weaknesses at the plate. That doesn't mean you can project him out, automatically, to 4 WAR in a full season.

**alnorth** · 08-27-2013, 12:29 PM

Buster Olney had a pretty good article today. Its behind the Inside paywall, so basically it discusses the fact that even though Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg were treated gently, they still got hurt.

The conventional wisdom in baseball is beginning to shift on young players. Pitch Counts in games are still important, you still probably shouldn't make a young pitcher throw 120 every night, but people are now questioning whether there is much value in limiting IP over an entire season. There's still a lot we don't know about how pitchers get hurt and how you can prevent it, but one thing we know for sure is that you only control young pitchers for 6 years. There have been many, many teams who made young ace pitchers throw 180+ IP and they survived all 6 years. So, you may as well pitch them while you've got them.

Prison Bitch · 08-27-2013, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

If Lough ever goes a whole yr with more WAR than Alex Gordon with similar # at bats ill give you $1000. WhenIits said and done David Lough will be lucky to be a .265 hitter with very little power and isnt great at walking. Babip doesnt apply to all players the same. Players like Gordon have a high line drive rate so duh this BABIP is going to be higher. Hacks like Moustakas pop up virtually on every at bat and never hit line drives so obviously their BABIP will be much lower. BABIP is not a tool you look at solely, its a tool you look at in relation to other sabermetrics

There are all sorts of players who have a good year (or good couple years) without being as "talented" as another guy. Lough doesn't have Alex' power but so what? He's close to him in every other category. Every one. They're damn near equivalent fielders which is surprising given how good Alex plays LF. Both run well. All Alex clearly does better is hit for power.

(He walks more but that's somewhat nullified by his higher K rate).

The point here is remains the same: Alex has had a down year. Lough has surprised. Given the massive salary disparity, I'll stick to my thesis that Lough has about given you what Alex has at a discount price.

CoMoChief · 08-27-2013, 01:24 PM

You can spin stats anyway you want.

doesnt change shit...our offense overall has been awful this season and our "studs" lack long ball power

siberian khatru · 08-27-2013, 01:25 PM

So NOBODY wants to discuss the huge Clayton Mortensen trade?

**DeezNutz** · 08-27-2013, 01:26 PM

DM says were ahead of schedule, so I feel better about things now.

Archie F. Swin · 08-27-2013, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

So NOBODY wants to discuss the huge Clayton Mortensen trade?

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/20...jeJ/story.html

I don't know enough to have an opinion.

Ebolapox · 08-27-2013, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/20...jeJ/story.html

I don't know enough to have an opinion.

wait... they found a way to make a john clayton/chris mortensen hybrid, and he CAN'T pitch? FARK!

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1430308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,158

08-26-2013, 08:42 PM	#316
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1672500	They actually spent a solid chunk of time talking about the Royals on Baseball Tonight... kind of surprising considering the last couple weeks. Mentioned how good Billy Butler has been since the All-Star break, talked about him for a while, then the Shields trade. The analysts all still thought it was the right move... a risk, but the right move. Basically thought if the Royals kept Myers there's no way they'll beat the Tigers trying to outscore them. With decent starting pitching they'll have a chance.
Posts: 55,009

08-26-2013, 08:45 PM	#317
ReynardMuldrake 2 Legit 2 Colquitt Join Date: Sep 2010 Casino cash: $4215754	Not Royals related but kinda funny:
Posts: 4,719

08-27-2013, 09:37 AM	#323
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1430308	My thoughts on advanced stats: BABIP is a useful tool. It gives you a quick glance at how lucky a player is getting. But you have to put it in context. For most players, BABIP is closely tied to LD%. Typically, a player's batting average will be his BABIP +180-200. Fast players tend to have a higher BABIP because they garner more infield hits, which is important to consider. And some guys just consistently have an extremely high BABIP (Derek Jeter being the most consistent example). You can't look at a guy's BABIP and stop there. LD% is closely tied. HR/FB is also an important factor. As for WAR... WAR in small sample sizes/WAR for bench players has to be taken with a grain of salt. Take a guy like Jarrod Dyson, who is used in basically perfect situations for him. He rarely hits against LHP, which he is highly susceptible to. He doesn't get a ton of at-bats, so the flaws in his approach/swing are less exposed (and there is less tape on him). He's used a lot in pinch-running situations, giving him a chance to shine there. And he plays CF, which maximizes his defensive value. That's why a guy with a .650 OPS last season posted a 1.1 oWAR. I think Lough is a more legitimate major league player than Dyson. I like him a LOT and think he's an incredibly value (and nearly perfect) 4th OF. He can play all 3 positions at a plus level. He's a good baserunner and can swipe bags. He has a good approach and makes good contact against both RHP and LHP. But Lough is not a 4.5-5 win player over the course of a full season. I think he's a guy who can consistently give you 2.5 WAR off the bench, with about 250-300 AB (60 or so starts, several late inning switches). One of the big failings in using sabremetrics, IMO, is taking numbers in a small or limited sample size, and projecting them to a full season without taking into account some of the factors we're talking about here. A platoon guy might be able to put up 2 WAR when protected from his same-side weaknesses at the plate. That doesn't mean you can project him out, automatically, to 4 WAR in a full season. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,158

08-27-2013, 12:29 PM	#324
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	Buster Olney had a pretty good article today. Its behind the Inside paywall, so basically it discusses the fact that even though Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg were treated gently, they still got hurt. The conventional wisdom in baseball is beginning to shift on young players. Pitch Counts in games are still important, you still probably shouldn't make a young pitcher throw 120 every night, but people are now questioning whether there is much value in limiting IP over an entire season. There's still a lot we don't know about how pitchers get hurt and how you can prevent it, but one thing we know for sure is that you only control young pitchers for 6 years. There have been many, many teams who made young ace pitchers throw 180+ IP and they survived all 6 years. So, you may as well pitch them while you've got them. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

08-27-2013, 01:24 PM	#326
CoMoChief Mahomes Dynasty Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $8022254	You can spin stats anyway you want. doesnt change shit...our offense overall has been awful this season and our "studs" lack long ball power __________________
Posts: 39,165

08-27-2013, 01:25 PM	#327
siberian khatru 21st Century Schizoid Fan Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Gates of Delirium Casino cash: $2214950	So NOBODY wants to discuss the huge Clayton Mortensen trade?
Posts: 69,312