Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 261

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Prison Bitch · 12-15-2013, 10:25 PM

Hochevar's fastball as a starter sat around 92-93 miles per hour. As a reliever, however, he's averaging over 95 mph, and it's helped push the pitch from one of his most significant issues to a net positive in his repertoire, according to PITCHf/x run values. It's not a dominating offering, but it's a usable one, and it's helped set up his secondary pitches better than it did as a starter. Speaking of those secondary offerings, they have changed, as Hochevar has dropped his slider almost entirely in favor of a cutter. He's had the cutter before, but has bumped its usage from about 10 percent to one-third of the time, and like his fastball, has seen the velocity jump a couple of ticks.

That has been his primary pitch in terms of success, according to the same PITCHf/x run values cited above. He's seeing a higher rate of swings-and-misses on his stuff, is seeing less contact on pitches out of the zone despite a higher percentage of swings there, and has had more success with first pitch strikes than he's ever had, and it's not even close. Hochevar finally seems to be getting his sequencing and pitch selection right, and it's paid off in his new role.

His cutter usage has only increased as the year has gone on, too, according to Brooks Baseball. While Hochevar threw the pitch just 20 percent of the time in April, that's jumped, by month, to 32, 37, and now 41 percent. This has come at the expense of his sinker more than anything, but that's fine: his sinker has never been a very useful pitch for him, and less of it is more.

Besides his curve, the cutter has been his most-effective and consistent swing-and-miss offering. As he's increased his cutter usage, however, his four-seam fastball has also started to pick up additional swing-and-misses, likely due to the aforementioned pitch sequencing and first-pitch strikes that allow him to control a plate appearance. In the past, the idea of Hochevar controlling anything was hard to fathom, but here we are.

http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/7...-luke-hochevar

Nightfyre · 12-15-2013, 10:34 PM

The question with Hoch was never his stuff. The question was how hitters would handle him on his second/third time through the order and how he would handle high leverage situations.

Prison Bitch · 12-15-2013, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

The question with Hoch was never his stuff. The question was how hitters would handle him on his second/third time through the order and how he would handle high leverage situations.

The area between his rather large ears has always been his problem. I can't quantify this so it may be untrue but I believe I heard once he has a horrible time with runners on base. 3 innings he cruises, then: blowup. James Shields and Guthrie on the other hand act like runners don't even exist when they get on.

I have no idea if Luke will ever be a good starter. But I'm pretty certain he has the tools to be one. He might've turned a corner this season with his new pitch reliance.

Nightfyre · 12-15-2013, 10:43 PM

Even so, the Royal's margin for error in post-season hopes should probably not be pinned on Hoch panning out in the rotation, let alone in his last season of arbitration. He should be traded now, as a classic sell-high move. It's not like we can retain him for next year anyway.

**chefsos** · 12-16-2013, 08:54 AM

Did I miss this? Was there a thread? Because, you know, awesome. I'm still bummed sometimes as an O's fan that Guthrie had to go, and it's been two years.

Does anyone in northern Kansas City want to play catch today out to 90 feet? Day 3 of throwing program.
— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) December 13, 2013

@TheRealJGuts What part of Northern KC? I can be there in 20 minutes.
— Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013

So yeah, it was as epic as you'd think it would be. Thanks to @TheRealJGuts for a story to tell my kids and grandkids for years. #Royals
— Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013

BlackHelicopters · 12-16-2013, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chefsos

Did I miss this? Was there a thread? Because, you know, awesome. I'm still bummed sometimes as an O's fan that Guthrie had to go, and it's been two years.

Does anyone in northern Kansas City want to play catch today out to 90 feet? Day 3 of throwing program.
— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) December 13, 2013

@TheRealJGuts What part of Northern KC? I can be there in 20 minutes.
— Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013

So yeah, it was as epic as you'd think it would be. Thanks to @TheRealJGuts for a story to tell my kids and grandkids for years. #Royals
— Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013

Awesome

Fansy the Famous Bard · 12-16-2013, 09:43 AM

wow, that's pretty cool. Gotta love Guts!

Demonpenz · 12-16-2013, 10:12 AM

Jeremy Guthrie has an awesome shoe collection.

**Saul Good** · 12-16-2013, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

The area between his rather large ears has always been his problem. I can't quantify this so it may be untrue but I believe I heard once he has a horrible time with runners on base. 3 innings he cruises, then: blowup. James Shields and Guthrie on the other hand act like runners don't even exist when they get on.

I have no idea if Luke will ever be a good starter. But I'm pretty certain he has the tools to be one. He might've turned a corner this season with his new pitch reliance.

Let me summarize your recent posts just to make sure I understand your take on things...

Billy Butler sucks, and 30 year old Luke Hochevar may develop into a good starting pitcher.

Is that an accurate assessment?

Prison Bitch · 12-16-2013, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Let me summarize your recent posts just to make sure I understand your take on things...

Billy Butler sucks, and 30 year old Luke Hochevar may develop into a good starting pitcher.

Is that an accurate assessment?

You forgot to mention Butlers 1.4 WAR vs Hoch at 1.2 in limited duty. You see Saul, intelligent people quantify their arguments using support and evidence. You should try it some day. Pointing out Luke's age is another irrelevant tangent with no real relevance to 2014.

**Saul Good** · 12-16-2013, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You forgot to mention Butlers 1.4 WAR vs Hoch at 1.2 in limited duty. You see Saul, intelligent people quantify their arguments using support and evidence. You should try it some day. Pointing out Luke's age is another irrelevant tangent with no real relevance to 2014.

So...that 1.2 WAR that he posted as something other than a starting pitcher translates into him being a starting pitcher....how, exactly?

Maybe we should make Dyson a starting pitcher. You know...decent WAR in limited duty as something other than a starting pitcher. Plus, he has yet to prove himself a failure as a starting pitcher.

My God...the only thing more annoying than discussing sports with someone who completely ignores advanced stats is discussing sports with someone who focuses exclusively on them at the expense of actual, on the field results.

**Saul Good** · 12-16-2013, 10:59 AM

Oh shit...I completely missed your comment about his age. You think that the fact that he has yet to have anything even remotely resembling a successful season as a starting pitcher by the age of 30 is an "irrelevant tangent"?

Here's a guy who has had all the physical tools, but nothing upstairs, and you're positing that he may blossom as a guy with nothing upstairs and declining physical tools. Are you trying to make your Billy Butler take sound less dumb by comparison?

Archie F. Swin · 12-16-2013, 11:21 AM

Please forgive if this discussion has already come and gone, but...

Baltimore needs a closer and, last I checked, they had some big bats on that team. Would the O's trade a starting major leaguer for the likes of Holland?

**RockChalk** · 12-16-2013, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

Please forgive if this discussion has already come and gone, but...

Baltimore needs a closer and, last I checked, they had some big bats on that team. Would the O's trade a starting major leaguer for the likes of Holland?

They would never trade for someone that Jim Johnson used to poop out on a daily basis

Fansy the Famous Bard · 12-16-2013, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

Please forgive if this discussion has already come and gone, but...

Baltimore needs a closer and, last I checked, they had some big bats on that team. Would the O's trade a starting major leaguer for the likes of Holland?

C&O's head would explode....

... uh.. that's the best idea I've heard in months. I hope it happens.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1370308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,172

12-15-2013, 10:25 PM	#3901
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Hochevar's fastball as a starter sat around 92-93 miles per hour. As a reliever, however, he's averaging over 95 mph, and it's helped push the pitch from one of his most significant issues to a net positive in his repertoire, according to PITCHf/x run values. It's not a dominating offering, but it's a usable one, and it's helped set up his secondary pitches better than it did as a starter. Speaking of those secondary offerings, they have changed, as Hochevar has dropped his slider almost entirely in favor of a cutter. He's had the cutter before, but has bumped its usage from about 10 percent to one-third of the time, and like his fastball, has seen the velocity jump a couple of ticks. That has been his primary pitch in terms of success, according to the same PITCHf/x run values cited above. He's seeing a higher rate of swings-and-misses on his stuff, is seeing less contact on pitches out of the zone despite a higher percentage of swings there, and has had more success with first pitch strikes than he's ever had, and it's not even close. Hochevar finally seems to be getting his sequencing and pitch selection right, and it's paid off in his new role. His cutter usage has only increased as the year has gone on, too, according to Brooks Baseball. While Hochevar threw the pitch just 20 percent of the time in April, that's jumped, by month, to 32, 37, and now 41 percent. This has come at the expense of his sinker more than anything, but that's fine: his sinker has never been a very useful pitch for him, and less of it is more. Besides his curve, the cutter has been his most-effective and consistent swing-and-miss offering. As he's increased his cutter usage, however, his four-seam fastball has also started to pick up additional swing-and-misses, likely due to the aforementioned pitch sequencing and first-pitch strikes that allow him to control a plate appearance. In the past, the idea of Hochevar controlling anything was hard to fathom, but here we are. http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/7...-luke-hochevar
Posts: 87,025

12-15-2013, 10:34 PM	#3902
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $3338849	The question with Hoch was never his stuff. The question was how hitters would handle him on his second/third time through the order and how he would handle high leverage situations.
Posts: 18,570

12-15-2013, 10:43 PM	#3904
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $3338849	Even so, the Royal's margin for error in post-season hopes should probably not be pinned on Hoch panning out in the rotation, let alone in his last season of arbitration. He should be traded now, as a classic sell-high move. It's not like we can retain him for next year anyway.
Posts: 18,570

12-16-2013, 08:54 AM	#3905
chefsos Fifty eight sixty two... Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Felton, DE Casino cash: $8467676	Did I miss this? Was there a thread? Because, you know, awesome. I'm still bummed sometimes as an O's fan that Guthrie had to go, and it's been two years. Does anyone in northern Kansas City want to play catch today out to 90 feet? Day 3 of throwing program. — Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) December 13, 2013 @TheRealJGuts What part of Northern KC? I can be there in 20 minutes. — Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013 So yeah, it was as epic as you'd think it would be. Thanks to @TheRealJGuts for a story to tell my kids and grandkids for years. #Royals — Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) December 13, 2013
Posts: 9,450

12-16-2013, 09:43 AM	#3907
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $2006440	wow, that's pretty cool. Gotta love Guts! __________________ Hi.
Posts: 6,055

12-16-2013, 10:12 AM	#3908
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $2842136	Jeremy Guthrie has an awesome shoe collection. __________________
Posts: 54,313

12-16-2013, 10:59 AM	#3912
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	Oh shit...I completely missed your comment about his age. You think that the fact that he has yet to have anything even remotely resembling a successful season as a starting pitcher by the age of 30 is an "irrelevant tangent"? Here's a guy who has had all the physical tools, but nothing upstairs, and you're positing that he may blossom as a guy with nothing upstairs and declining physical tools. Are you trying to make your Billy Butler take sound less dumb by comparison? __________________ Today is not a good day to be a pussy.
Posts: 41,870

12-16-2013, 11:21 AM	#3913
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	Please forgive if this discussion has already come and gone, but... Baltimore needs a closer and, last I checked, they had some big bats on that team. Would the O's trade a starting major leaguer for the likes of Holland? __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
Posts: 11,800