(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[SPchief]

Very solid trade.

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by Coach

I'm aware that those numbers are small sample size in terms of AB's and what not, but I'm still trying to understand the logic of this trade.

I can see why, because of the influx of outfielders the Royals have, and they had to get rid of one, maybe two.

But I feel that the value KC got back for Lough was underwhelming, in terms of WAR. Gave up a 2.7 WAR player for a 0.7 WAR.

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but isn't WAR wins against replacement? We had literally NO ONE in RF last year. If a guy does a half decent job at a position where there is no one to back him up, won't his WAR be higher? The Orioles have Machado at 3B.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the concept of the statistic.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Coach

I'm aware that those numbers are small sample size in terms of AB's and what not, but I'm still trying to understand the logic of this trade.

I can see why, because of the influx of outfielders the Royals have, and they had to get rid of one, maybe two.

But I feel that the value KC got back for Lough was underwhelming, in terms of WAR. Gave up a 2.7 WAR player for a 0.7 WAR.

Lough was not going to make our team, and everyone in baseball probably knew that.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Lough was not going to make our team, and everyone in baseball probably knew that.

I knew that part too. I'm not disputing that at all.

I'm disputing the value in return.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but isn't WAR wins against replacement? We had literally NO ONE in RF last year. If a guy does a half decent job at a position where there is no one to back him up, won't his WAR be higher? The Orioles have Machado at 3B.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the concept of the statistic.

yeah, WAR is a counting stat, not an average. So if you play more, your WAR will be higher. If Valencia would have played every day at the rate he was hitting, he would have gotten over 2.

[Great Expectations]

Split GS PA BA OBP SLG OPS tOPS+
vs RHP 833 229 269 360 629 76
vs LHP 428 329 367 513 879 146
vs LH Starter 126 504 301 337 475 812 127
vs RH Starter 186 757 238 279 370 648 82

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but isn't WAR wins against replacement? We had literally NO ONE in RF last year. If a guy does a half decent job at a position where there is no one to back him up, won't his WAR be higher? The Orioles have Machado at 3B.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the concept of the statistic.

Francouer was the RF for the Royals, and he was a -2.3 WAR in 2012. In 2013, he was a -0.9 before being DFA'ed.

WAR is "Wins Above Replacemet". Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Coach

I knew that part too. I'm not disputing that at all.

I'm disputing the value in return.

If Lough would have somehow beaten out Maxwell and Dyson, given that Aoki's now the man in right, he would be lucky to get half the AB in 2014 that he got in 2013. So, he may end the year with less than 1 WAR playing for us in 2014. If Moose sucks in the spring and Valencia takes his job, he could finish with over 2 WAR, while he'd struggle to get 1 as a backup in Baltimore. All things being equal, especially with our needs, I'd rather have another 3B than a corner OF.

When you compare WAR you gotta eyeball the PA and Games played, then roughly adjust for that if you are comparing a starter to a bench guy. (eg, if you played 1/3 of the season and got 0.5 WAR, then maybe you are a 1.5 WAR player)

[JohnnyV13]

Originally Posted by alnorth

yeah, WAR is a counting stat, not an average. So if you play more, your WAR will be higher. If Valencia would have played every day at the rate he was hitting, he would have gotten over 2.

WAR is indeed wins above replacement, and its a great stat, but it does have it's limits.

WAR is something of a "counting stat", in that the more you play the more you accumulate (presuming you're playing above replacement level).

Thus, according to WAR a player who hits .350 with a .500 slugging percentage over 150 ABs will be rated much lower than a guy with 600ABs and .250 BA , slugs .420 for an OPS of .750.

So you can't look at Valencia vs. Lough and simply compare their WAR values, especially when you're talking about bench players.

In essence, Lough was a bench player pressed into full time duty, while Valencia only got 169 AB's last season. Comparing WAR value in this case is an apples and oranges thing.

Also, look deeper at Lough. His OBP was good last year, but he doesn't walk. Lough's OBP is going to be completely dependent on batting average, and that can fluctuate based on BABIP. Luck can play a large factor in yearly BA fluctuations according to sabermetric analysis.

Thus the Royals see Lough as probably outperforming his ability a bit last season. Also, a huge part of Lough's value was his defensive metrics. Defense can vary wildly between seasons. Sabermetricians say you don't get enough data for ratings to be stable unless you have 3 years. Accordingly, Lough's defensive value could be overrated by having only one year of data.

Now, I have no problem with this trade, because Lough was now destined to be a bench player and we had 3 backup outfielders and only one backup infielder (Bonifacio).

Now we have 2 backup outfielders and 2 infielders. Also, valencia has a strong platoon split. He's a terror against left-handed pitching (career line of .329/.367/.513). Valencia makes a great potential platoon for Moustakas if he whiffs against lefties again. I would guess he could also play 1st, which might be nice to sub for Hosmer rather than playing BB in the field if he needs a day off.

[chefsos]

I see by the stats that Valencia started 3 games at 3B last year. I don't recall one of them. I always figured his position was Bat.

[alnorth]

Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli 2m Really, if Dayton Moore keeps making moves like these, eventually he'll get me to start liking him again. Still some work to do, though.

[DeezNutz]

Well, at least we acquired a player who has absolutely abused KC pitching since his rookie year.

[DeezNutz]

OPS of 1.109 his n00b year against KC, for example.

[duncan_idaho]

Remember when moves like adding Valencia were big headliner items, and we kept saying those types of moves would be great, if they were final pieces/touches on a good team?

#FeelsGoodMan

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Well, at least we acquired a player who has absolutely abused KC pitching since his rookie year.

Edit: Not really. Couldn't hit for shit in 2011.

Guess I'm remembering only his rookie campaign when I was all, "Who the **** is this asshole, and why can't we get him out?"