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12-18-2013, 04:35 PM | #3991 | |
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I must have gotten him confused with all the other Twinkies who have tormented us in recent years (except for 2013). |
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12-18-2013, 04:36 PM | #3992 | |
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Lough played 96 games, which is a little more than half of a season, and he finished a 2.7 WAR. I'm just simply stating that, in terms of value in return, to me, at this point, it doesn't seem much in return. Would have been nice to have a low prospect along with Valencia to offset the value that Lough have provided in the 2013 season, that's all.
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12-18-2013, 04:37 PM | #3993 | |
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12-18-2013, 04:56 PM | #3994 |
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I suddenly feel very, very good about this team with the recent moves...GMDM has honestly surprised me.
That Valencia trade is a steal IMO. |
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12-18-2013, 05:05 PM | #3995 | |
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You can't just take their WAR from a bench spot and project it out to a full season and say "They'd account for X WAR," because WAR can't account for players getting "overexposed." Take a guy with a significant platoon split (Say he's LH). Seth Smith is a good current example. If that guy plays in a platoon and plays 100 full games a year with a 2.5 WAR, you can't just look at it and say he'd be a 4 WAR guy if he played everyday. Because he, as a bench player, is being protected from overexposure (having to face disadvantageous situations). A guy like Lough was protected and used in matchups that fit him best. That's going to make his oWAR better. Throw in his dWAR - which is not an entirely reliable stat, because of the variation in defensive stats - and he comes out as a 3 WAR guy in limited time. But there's no guarantee he's 1) that valuable in the same role again; 2) able to provide the same value in a more significant role. It's hard to use much statistical analysis in this case. Bench players may have more/less value than their stats indicate. Velencia and Lough are both 4A type players who are best off of the bench. In a vacuum, Lough might be more valuable (though Valencia has RH pop, which is the most rare commodity for position players), but Valencia is a more valuable piece for the Royals in 2014. At least on paper.
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12-18-2013, 05:31 PM | #3996 | |
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I can see your point of view of being overexposed, which makes sense. However, when I look at Lough's splits (between LH and RH pitching), both are nearly identical. The only thing that does make a difference is that he only faced LH pitching 65 times, compared to RH pitching 250 AB's. LH pitching, his line was .292 BA/.314 OBP/.431 SLG/.745 OPS in only 65 AB's. RH pitching, his line was .284 BA/.310 OBP/.408 SLG/.718 OPS in 250 AB's. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits...28/david-lough Now I know the LH pitching size is a very small sample size, but it's not like he was clearly overmatched against LH pitching either. Valencia's splits shows me a different story. He excels against left handed pitching, but against right handed pitching, he's been a disaster. LH pitching, his line was .371 BA/.392 OBP/.639 SLG/1.031 OPS in 97 AB's. RH pitching, his line was .203 BA/.250 OBP/.422 SLG/.672 OPS in 64 AB's. And I'm not so sure if he's going to "replace" Moose because last year, he was a DH as the majority of his AB's was under DH, with a little 3rd base. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits...danny-valencia Look, I'm not questioning the trade in terms of that the Royals have to give up an outfielder because they do have a log jam of them. I get that part and I accept that part. The part where I thought Moore could do a little better was to get the Orioles to throw in a low level prospect.
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12-18-2013, 05:39 PM | #3997 | |
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Basically, my concept is that some guys can only be productive as bench guys and have diminishing returns the more they play. I think Lough's viewed value is probably lower than we might expect. Looks like a pretty even swap of bench parts (even though they are both NICE bench parts).
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12-18-2013, 05:41 PM | #3998 |
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Depth at a position of need. We have a very solid infield now:
Hosmer, Infante, Escobar, and Moose with Bonifacio and Valencia in tow. |
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12-18-2013, 05:42 PM | #3999 | |
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I think you're overvaluing Lough, and I doubt any GM in baseball would've given up two players for a 27-year-old 4th OF with 400 career ABs in the majors. |
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12-18-2013, 06:08 PM | #4000 | |
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Valencia was really good in 2013, and given average luck (horrible BABIP) he should have put up a better slash line in 2012 as well. He's a great insurance policy and could be a credible alternative to Moose, or at least the other side of a platoon. We didn't deal off a proven major leaguer, and he was the outfielder we were going to get rid of. I really think this trade was very fair for both sides.
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12-18-2013, 06:11 PM | #4001 | |
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Valencia had history of playing in the Majors, and it's pretty much a schizophrenia. Rookie year, was very nice, then bombed out. Made a nice recovery last year in limited spot duty time. Who's to say that he'll perform his rookie year or 2013 lines? He could perform in the 2011/2012 lines as well.
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12-18-2013, 06:16 PM | #4002 | |
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I was just simply stating in terms of value, as my previous post mentioned, based of their careers. All I was simply stating that, it wouldn't be too much at least try to see if Moore could have gotten a PTBNL or a low A player in return. Either way, good discussion gents. At least it could have been very much worse, I will acknowledge that.
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12-18-2013, 06:28 PM | #4003 |
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Solid trade, def like getting INF depth esp 3b.
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12-18-2013, 06:30 PM | #4004 |
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Time to start hitting Missy Moustakas or you'll be taking your at bats in Omaha.
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12-18-2013, 06:40 PM | #4005 | |
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