*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by seaofred

Yes, but does it open a spot for Moose to go to Tampa?

Tampa's not known for offering 50m contracts unless the player is fresh from the minors.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by seaofred

Yes, but does it open a spot for Moose to go to Tampa?

Not sure I see a fit for him there. Turf would be awful on his knees. Rebuilding team in a stacked division. About as far away from Cali as you can get. Might as well just stay in KC at that point.

[duncan_idaho]

Landing spots for Moustakas keep dwindling.

If I'm the O's GM, that's someone I'd be thinking about heavily. Move Manny Machado now, sign Moustakas in FA for a fraction of Machado's cost, and try to move forward and win.


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[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I disagree.

The Giants dumped Denard Span's salary in that deal. That's 11 million plus a 4 million buyout.

They take on 17 million in AAV for Longoria, but all he needs to provide to break even there is 2 WAR.

Even if 2017 was a new normal for Longoria, that's a pretty easy mark for him to reach.

In total, the Giants added 71 million in commitments over a five year span. I imagine they'll get at least 12-13 wins out of Longoria, so they come out way ahead, IMO.

The problem is that the Giants....suck. And they're going to suck for a long time. They have no chance of running down the Dodgers or D-Backs in the next year or two and I don't see any reason they should even get within a sniff of Colorado. They probably can't even hang with SD if the Padres ever get their shit together.

They appear to have no plan at all right now. Their system is absolutely barren. They are a collection of aging players and bad contracts. I know you've mentioned that you think they're not in as dire straights as I do, but one draft isn't going to save them and a deal like this, even if it makes them a game or two 'better', just takes them from a 'true talent' 75 win to maybe a 78 win team that still sucks terribly and now can't bank up draft capital.

The Giants are going to be wandering the wastelands for the remainder of Posey/Longoria's contract. Worse still, they've used up most of the insane value on the Bumgarner contract to boot. Only 2 more years before he's gone.

They shouldn't be targeting guys like Longoria - they should be moving guys like MadBum and ever so quietly gauging whether or not Posey would like to get moved to a contender.

This tells me they're a team that has no understanding of where they truly are. They look a lot like the 2012 Phillies right now. They're tottering on the brink of routinely losing 90 and don't seem to have come to grips with that fact.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem is that the Giants....suck. And they're going to suck for a long time. They have no chance of running down the Dodgers or D-Backs in the next year or two and I don't see any reason they should even get within a sniff of Colorado. They probably can't even hang with SD if the Padres ever get their shit together.

They appear to have no plan at all right now. Their system is absolutely barren. They are a collection of aging players and bad contracts. I know you've mentioned that you think they're not in as dire straights as I do, but one draft isn't going to save them and a deal like this, even if it makes them a game or two 'better', just takes them from a 'true talent' 75 win to maybe a 78 win team that still sucks terribly and now can't bank up draft capital.

The Giants are going to be wandering the wastelands for the remainder of Posey/Longoria's contract. Worse still, they've used up most of the insane value on the Bumgarner contract to boot. Only 2 more years before he's gone.

They shouldn't be targeting guys like Longoria - they should be moving guys like MadBum and ever so quietly gauging whether or not Posey would like to get moved to a contender.

This tells me they're a team that has no understanding of where they truly are. They look a lot like the 2012 Phillies right now. They're tottering on the brink of routinely losing 90 and don't seem to have come to grips with that fact.

Sounds like the Royals.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem is that the Giants....suck. And they're going to suck for a long time. They have no chance of running down the Dodgers or D-Backs in the next year or two and I don't see any reason they should even get within a sniff of Colorado. They probably can't even hang with SD if the Padres ever get their shit together.

Are you telling me you dont buy into #beliEVEN?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem is that the Giants....suck. And they're going to suck for a long time. They have no chance of running down the Dodgers or D-Backs in the next year or two and I don't see any reason they should even get within a sniff of Colorado. They probably can't even hang with SD if the Padres ever get their shit together.

They appear to have no plan at all right now. Their system is absolutely barren. They are a collection of aging players and bad contracts. I know you've mentioned that you think they're not in as dire straights as I do, but one draft isn't going to save them and a deal like this, even if it makes them a game or two 'better', just takes them from a 'true talent' 75 win to maybe a 78 win team that still sucks terribly and now can't bank up draft capital.

The Giants are going to be wandering the wastelands for the remainder of Posey/Longoria's contract. Worse still, they've used up most of the insane value on the Bumgarner contract to boot. Only 2 more years before he's gone.

They shouldn't be targeting guys like Longoria - they should be moving guys like MadBum and ever so quietly gauging whether or not Posey would like to get moved to a contender.

This tells me they're a team that has no understanding of where they truly are. They look a lot like the 2012 Phillies right now. They're tottering on the brink of routinely losing 90 and don't seem to have come to grips with that fact.

Completely disagree the Giants are done.

They still have the makings of a very good starting rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, and Stratton (who was impressive a year ago, IMO). I know you think Cueto is finished, but I'm not convinced. I don't know that he'll be Cy Young candidate good again, like he was in 16, but I like the bounce back odds.

A healthy Melancon and healthy Will Smith paired with Hunter Strickland and perhaps Sam Dyson could form a very good bullpen again (even if Smith is slow to come back, Melancon, Strickland, and Dyson should be very good trio).

Offensively, they still have questions in the OF to work around, but they are now about 13-14 million under the luxury threshold and could add a defensive minded CF like Jarrod Dyson on a 3-year deal that's backloaded, and find a platoon situation they like for LF fairly easily.

An offensive core of:

Pence
Belt
Posey
Longoria
Crawford

Is a pretty nice 2-6.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Completely disagree the Giants are done.

They still have the makings of a very good starting rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, and Stratton (who was impressive a year ago, IMO). I know you think Cueto is finished, but I'm not convinced. I don't know that he'll be Cy Young candidate good again, like he was in 16, but I like the bounce back odds.

A healthy Melancon and healthy Will Smith paired with Hunter Strickland and perhaps Sam Dyson could form a very good bullpen again (even if Smith is slow to come back, Melancon, Strickland, and Dyson should be very good trio).

Offensively, they still have questions in the OF to work around, but they are now about 13-14 million under the luxury threshold and could add a defensive minded CF like Jarrod Dyson on a 3-year deal that's backloaded, and find a platoon situation they like for LF fairly easily.

An offensive core of:

Pence
Belt
Posey
Longoria
Crawford

Is a pretty nice 2-6.

Going to be very tough in that division though.

[duncan_idaho]

... end of day, if the Giants make a few good complementary moves, I think they can get back into WC discussion pretty easily, and no one wants to see them in an elimination series.

Something like a Jarrod Dyson, Austin Jackson pairing, with Chris Shaw also in the mix in LF, could fill in that OF capably and inexpensively.


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[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

An offensive core of:

Pence
Belt
Posey
Longoria
Crawford

Is a pretty nice 2-6.

Is it really?

Pence has had 3 straight years of declining production/injury concerns. He plays a style of game that is unlikely to age well and he's 35 next year. I see little reason to expect much in the way of a bounce back offensively. Crawford was never projected to be much of an offensive asset anyway and hit his peak season at age 28. He's been in offensive decline for a couple years as well and is now leaving his prime. Longoria...well I've said my piece on him; waning power and OBP skills just don't bode well. I do like Belt but he's probably the 2nd best offensive player on that team and he's more of a Dexter Fowler; fine complementary type. Posey is Posey but with the power on the decline he's not really a premier run-producer either.

Even if you expect a bounceback from those guys, I think you're looking at an average at best offense. And I wouldn't count on that many guys bouncing back.

As for the pitching, Cueto is a smallish, slider heavy righty who doesn't miss bats anymore. If you get a 4th starter out of him at this point you'd have to be pleased. Stratton is a smoke and mirrors righthander; a probable 5th starter. I actually like Samardzija to have a nice season and Madbum is a horse. That's okay but it's not enough to drive a good team. Melancon has a sore elbow that dates all the way back to 2015; absent a reconstruction I just don't see any way he's ever truly healthy again. Strickland has failed every time someone has asked anything important from him.

If you squint and the Giants get 8 guys that break right, I guess they can win 86-88 games. But hell, you can't say that about just about every team in baseball. The odds are not in their favor.

I'd say they're more likely to lose 90 than they are to win 90 and they're probably looking at a 76-78 win team when all is said and done. Maybe Bochy has a miracle up his sleeve - he's their greatest advantage. I just don't see the horses at all.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Is it really?

Pence has had 3 straight years of declining production/injury concerns. He plays a style of game that is unlikely to age well and he's 35 next year. I see little reason to expect much in the way of a bounce back offensively. Crawford was never projected to be much of an offensive asset anyway and hit his peak season at age 28. He's been in offensive decline for a couple years as well and is now leaving his prime. Longoria...well I've said my piece on him; waning power and OBP skills just don't bode well. I do like Belt but he's probably the 2nd best offensive player on that team and he's more of a Dexter Fowler; fine complementary type. Posey is Posey but with the power on the decline he's not really a premier run-producer either.

Even if you expect a bounceback from those guys, I think you're looking at an average at best offense. And I wouldn't count on that many guys bouncing back.

As for the pitching, Cueto is a smallish, slider heavy righty who doesn't miss bats anymore. If you get a 4th starter out of him at this point you'd have to be pleased. Stratton is a smoke and mirrors righthander; a probable 5th starter. I actually like Samardzija to have a nice season and Madbum is a horse. That's okay but it's not enough to drive a good team. Melancon has a sore elbow that dates all the way back to 2015; absent a reconstruction I just don't see any way he's ever truly healthy again. Strickland has failed every time someone has asked anything important from him.

If you squint and the Giants get 8 guys that break right, I guess they can win 86-88 games. But hell, you can't say that about just about every team in baseball. The odds are not in their favor.

I'd say they're more likely to lose 90 than they are to win 90 and they're probably looking at a 76-78 win team when all is said and done. Maybe Bochy has a miracle up his sleeve - he's their greatest advantage. I just don't see the horses at all.

To be fair, that sounds an awful lot like their 2014 team. A rotation of MadBum and four AARP members.

****. I’m still not over Game 7.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Is it really?



Pence has had 3 straight years of declining production/injury concerns. He plays a style of game that is unlikely to age well and he's 35 next year. I see little reason to expect much in the way of a bounce back offensively. Crawford was never projected to be much of an offensive asset anyway and hit his peak season at age 28. He's been in offensive decline for a couple years as well and is now leaving his prime. Longoria...well I've said my piece on him; waning power and OBP skills just don't bode well. I do like Belt but he's probably the 2nd best offensive player on that team and he's more of a Dexter Fowler; fine complementary type. Posey is Posey but with the power on the decline he's not really a premier run-producer either.



Even if you expect a bounceback from those guys, I think you're looking at an average at best offense. And I wouldn't count on that many guys bouncing back.



As for the pitching, Cueto is a smallish, slider heavy righty who doesn't miss bats anymore. If you get a 4th starter out of him at this point you'd have to be pleased. Stratton is a smoke and mirrors righthander; a probable 5th starter. I actually like Samardzija to have a nice season and Madbum is a horse. That's okay but it's not enough to drive a good team. Melancon has a sore elbow that dates all the way back to 2015; absent a reconstruction I just don't see any way he's ever truly healthy again. Strickland has failed every time someone has asked anything important from him.



If you squint and the Giants get 8 guys that break right, I guess they can win 86-88 games. But hell, you can't say that about just about every team in baseball. The odds are not in their favor.



I'd say they're more likely to lose 90 than they are to win 90 and they're probably looking at a 76-78 win team when all is said and done. Maybe Bochy has a miracle up his sleeve - he's their greatest advantage. I just don't see the horses at all.

I don't think it's great, but it's a competent lineup that will produce runs at around a league average level. Posey is still a quality producer and had a nice bounce back season. HRs down, but 2Bs up. .462 SLG is not shabby at all.

Pence is probably the lowest likelihood of bouncing back, agree there, but he also was pretty good in 2016.

They don't overwhelm you anywhere, but that's a run of professional hitters who see pitches, make contact, and take good ABs.

Cueto is slider heavy? He hasn't had a slider rate above 10 in the past 4 seasons, going FB and cutter, paired with the changeup. Slider is his 4th pitch by a mile. His K rate and swinging strike rate last season were actually an improvement from 2016 (slight increase). His walks doubled, and he didn't get as many groundballs as he had in the past. Both of those are symptoms of lower leg troubles, which I remember him having, which can hurt a FB/changeup pitcher's ability to keep the ball down.

I see:
Solid offense
Good starting pitching staff
Good bullpen (Melancon was elite with the issue the previous 4 years, had a small cleanup, on track to be healthy for ST)

I think with the right complementary moves, the Giants can get into that 88-90 win range and get into a WC, where their big-game ace, experience, contact-oriented, grinding offensive approach, and managerial advantage all stand out.

[DJ's left nut]

{shrug} We shall see.

As for Cueto - yeah, I didn't make that very clear because I'm long-winded and it didn't need to get longer. I'm referring mostly to the extremely hard miles he had put on him at a young age and what appears to be that use catching up to him.

Cueto used his slider a ton in his Reds days and Baker rode him hard in his early 20s. There are a lot of red flags that pop up there that suggest to me that the guy wasn't experiencing merely a bad year - he was dealing with the effects of a new normal brought about by some seriously hard work early in his career.

I see a below average offense, a playoff caliber pitching staff if everything else is good and a bullpen that I have little confidence in remaining healthy, let along reach higher levels of productivity.

But that's why they play the games...

[DJ's left nut]

Speaking of Giants and 3b and what not, an option that isn't even remotely sexy but a guy that's just a damn good baseball player who will likely end up very undervalued is Eduardo Nunez.

I don't really know how KC's mix is going to shake out (and as a righty and top of the order hitter, he has no appeal for me in STL), but if you guys aren't trending righty heavy and are looking for a decent table-setter who could probably be had pretty cheaply and then flipped to a contender at some point, Nunez would be worth a look.

He has a decent power/speed combo and a ton of defensive versatility. He probably shouldn't play SS but he can. His arm is probably a little bit shy to be a true asset at 3b but he can play it well enough. Defensively he's....there.

But he's a stubborn AB who can tax a pitcher. He has nice streaks of really being able to put a charge into the ball (mostly a gap hitter). Just a good, versatile player who can probably be had on a reasonable 2 year deal.

[WhawhaWhat]

Post-Longoria trade, Giants now project at 75.0 wins and have the game's 29th-best farm system. Also, depending on calculation, possibly MLB's highest payroll.

— NEIFI Analytics (@NEIFIco) December 20, 2017