2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Unsmooth-Moment]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Let's look at the data. We are 12-12 and have outscored our opponents 91-87. So our record is what it should be. We are 13/15 in runs and 2/15 in ERA. So we score 3.81 runs per game. League average: 4.43.


So we are only 86% of the league average. Suppose we were at that level instead. That would be .62 runs per which is 15 runs more. That puts us at 106 runs instead of 91. Running a league-average run total through the expected win/loss formula (Pythagorean) results in an expected final record of 91-71.

http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/Calculators.html

As our offense gets closer to average I'd expect pitching to dip a little as well. Hopefully offensive production improves more than pitching declines.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Unsmooth-Moment

As our offense gets closer to average I'd expect pitching to dip a little as well. Hopefully offensive production improves more than pitching declines.

Well, maybe but we had about the same spread (11/15 scoring 1/15 ERA) last year so it's possible it stays like this. We ended up +47 in run differential which should've been 87-75 (we finished close at 86-76).

Our current pace suggests we'll end up +27. Or 84-78.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

Butler aside. What is troublesome is its indicative of a club philosophy on how they are approaching their plate appearances.

Butler IS the problem. In 2012 he created 23.9 runs offensively but that fell to 7.2 last year and is already a dreadful -8.2 this year and -0.8 WAR. If he'd have put up the same 2012 numbers that's 15 or so extra runs last year that's another win or two. Right now he's a massive albatross. As bad as Gordon & Hos are they at least bring gold glove defense which keeps our runs allowed down.

If we're on pace to score 20 fewer runs, we can get the bulk of that back just by getting Old Billy to return. It must happen or the season is a lost cause.

[mr. tegu]

Bump for a cold and miserable game day.

McGowan has been getting knocked around so this should be a decent offensive day for us. It would be nice to knock him out early and wear out the bullpen to start the series.

[SPATCH]

Actually, we don't have an offense.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Bump for a cold and miserable game day.

McGowan has been getting knocked around so this should be a decent offensive day for us. It would be nice to knock him out early and wear out the bullpen to start the series.

Start the thread captain.

[TLO]

Hopefully Vargas continues to pitch well. The elements are definitely in his favor tonight.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Start the thread captain.

I don't keep my fans waiting.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by SPATCH

Actually, we don't have an offense.

Why Challenge The Royals, When They’ll Just Help You Out?
by Mike Petriello - April 28, 2014




That’s a visual representation of the current O-Contact% numbers, which shows you how often a team makes contact on a pitch outside the zone. Needless to say, the Royals are the only team over 70%, all the way up at 74.5%. This isn’t exactly a new thing, either. Since 2010, 10 teams have had an O-Contact% north of 70%. The 2014 Royals sit atop that list too, but they’re also joined by the 2010 Royals… and the 2011 Royals… and the 2012 Royals… and the 2013 Royals. Whether it’s organizational mandate or the players they’ve collected — likely a bit of both — these Royals love to swing outside the zone, and they’re good at making contact with those pitches. They’re so good at it, in fact, that no team since 2002, when this data goes back to, tops them. (The only one that comes close: the 2011 Royals. Of course.)

Usually making contact is good, but suddenly, you understand why pitchers don’t necessarily feel the need to throw strikes to the Royals. Why give them something worth hitting, when they’ll go out of their way to hit balls out of the zone? It’s not that the Royals swing at pitches outside the zone at a fantastically high rate — 30.4 percent, seventh in the bigs and above the 28.8 percent league average — but they do make contact, overall, at a much above-average rate........

So what the Royals have managed to come up with is a team that rarely swings and misses, also likes to swing at pitches outside the zone, and, understandably, makes more contact outside the zone.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-c...-help-you-out/

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Why Challenge The Royals, When They’ll Just Help You Out?
by Mike Petriello - April 28, 2014




That’s a visual representation of the current O-Contact% numbers, which shows you how often a team makes contact on a pitch outside the zone. Needless to say, the Royals are the only team over 70%, all the way up at 74.5%. This isn’t exactly a new thing, either. Since 2010, 10 teams have had an O-Contact% north of 70%. The 2014 Royals sit atop that list too, but they’re also joined by the 2010 Royals… and the 2011 Royals… and the 2012 Royals… and the 2013 Royals. Whether it’s organizational mandate or the players they’ve collected — likely a bit of both — these Royals love to swing outside the zone, and they’re good at making contact with those pitches. They’re so good at it, in fact, that no team since 2002, when this data goes back to, tops them. (The only one that comes close: the 2011 Royals. Of course.)

Usually making contact is good, but suddenly, you understand why pitchers don’t necessarily feel the need to throw strikes to the Royals. Why give them something worth hitting, when they’ll go out of their way to hit balls out of the zone? It’s not that the Royals swing at pitches outside the zone at a fantastically high rate — 30.4 percent, seventh in the bigs and above the 28.8 percent league average — but they do make contact, overall, at a much above-average rate........

So what the Royals have managed to come up with is a team that rarely swings and misses, also likes to swing at pitches outside the zone, and, understandably, makes more contact outside the zone.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-c...-help-you-out/

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

It truly is. It's not just a Dayton thing, it's an everybody thing. I truly believe had Gordon & Hosmer (possibly even Moose) come up through a different organization, they'd be 25 HR guys. This year.

[SPATCH]

It's like we are bringing these guys up through the system and giving them the tools to have the highest amount of success possible at AAA.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

I honestly think the organizational philosophy is flawed. Rather than seeing a lot of pitches and sitting on the mistake, the Royal's approach is swing at a pitch you can make contact with and hope something good happens.

[Nightfyre]

Also, the O-Contact% must be affected by the number of times you get into a bad count and have to foul balls off to stay alive.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Let's look at the data. We are 12-12 and have outscored our opponents 91-87. So our record is what it should be. We are 13/15 in runs and 2/15 in ERA. So we score 3.81 runs per game. League average: 4.43.


So we are only 86% of the league average. Suppose we were at that level instead. That would be .62 runs per which is 15 runs more. That puts us at 106 runs instead of 91. Running a league-average run total through the expected win/loss formula (Pythagorean) results in an expected final record of 91-71.

http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/Calculators.html

God. Damn. I'm going to cry after seeing that.