*****The Darwin Thompson Thread*****

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

What I'd say to that is Andy doesn't run the ball a whole bunch anyway does he? So none of our backs are gonna be used as a "bellcow". Therefore if Darwin becomes the starter he'd only be running the ball maybe ten times per game and his other work would be catching the ball. This is how he used Williams last season and I think Darwin can do that effectively tbh.

Andy's RB's always produce. He'll talk about committee but he'll EVENTUALLY give someone the bulk of the touches. He always does. And his RB's ALWAYS produce while somehow also always feeling underutilized.

Damien Williams better stay healthy. First injury and he's full time back up. Balance. Burst. Speed. Adequate vision.

He'll be good, but can he stay healthy? Can he HOLD ONTO THE BALL? People kinda overlook that Kareem Hunt fumbled on his first touch and then didn't fumble again. Ever. Which is pretty crazy. I don't think he fumbled in college and he played a TON.

You can't rely to heavily on guys who can't stay healthy or hold onto the ball, but this kid can run.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Andy's RB's always produce. He'll talk about committee but he'll EVENTUALLY give someone the bulk of the touches. He always does. And his RB's ALWAYS produce while somehow also always feeling underutilized.

Damien Williams better stay healthy. First injury and he's full time back up. Balance. Burst. Speed. Adequate vision.

He'll be good, but can he stay healthy? Can he HOLD ONTO THE BALL? People kinda overlook that Kareem Hunt fumbled on his first touch and then didn't fumble again. Ever. Which is pretty crazy. I don't think he fumbled in college and he played a TON.

You can't rely to heavily on guys who can't stay healthy or hold onto the ball, but this kid can run.

Darwin only fumbled once last apparently.

[WhiteWhale]

I stand by my preemptive comments.

Steal of the draft. Andy did it AGAIN.

[MAHOMO 4 LIFE!]

Damien is a really good RB. He produced in the playoffs. Just stay healthy is all

[JakeF]

Thompson 4th on latest depth chart released.

[Hoover]

Here is all you need to know about the RB position in the NFL.

And it backs up my belief in not giving second contracts to ANY running back.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...sily-replaced/

Sorry, Running Backs. Even Your Receiving Value Can Be Easily Replaced.

Running backs in the NFL don’t have the value they once did. The five highest-paid running backs this season will make 93 percent of what the five highest-paid RBs were paid in 2011, based on their collective salary cap charges each year according to Spotrac. The five highest-paid quarterbacks of 2019, meanwhile, are making 185 percent of their 2011 counterparts.1

But top backs like Le’Veon Bell, who sat out the entire 2018 season over a contract dispute with the Steelers, and current holdout Ezekiel Elliott, who hauled in 77 passes last year, may be hoping to reestablish value at the position with their receiving ability. By leaning into a more pass-happy league, running backs like these two, the Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey (107 receptions in 2018) and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley (91 receptions), are leading a receiving revolution at the position.

But despite the exploits of the most prolific receiving backs last year, running back targets as a share of all passes are not significantly increasing. Teams are just throwing to everyone more often. Last year, 20.2 percent of passes were targeted at running backs, which is in line with the 2001-to-2017 average of 19.5 percent. The same is true if we look at the market share of passing yards: 18 percent last year compared with 17.5 from 2001 to 2017.

And unless you’re playing fantasy football, judging receiving ability by the number of catches and receiving yards is a poor way to measure this skill. A checkdown to a running back who gains 12 yards on third-and-15 is great for your fantasy team, but it doesn’t do much to improve an actual team’s chances of winning a game.

A more accurate — but still imperfect — gauge of the receiving value of a running back is the added value of the plays in which he is a receiver.2 We can use a team’s success rate on those plays — whether the play resulted in positive expected points added — to see more clearly that not all running back catches and yards are created equal.

Last year, NFL backs registered successful plays on 1,663 of 3,572 receiving targets, a rate of 46.6 percent, according to ESPN Stats & Information Group. Elliott and Barkley were the top two rushers in the league last season, but they were below-average receivers for their position by this metric, posting respective success rates of 36.1 and 40.3 percent on passes thrown to them. The Cowboys and Giants ranked 31st and 26th, respectively, in overall success rates on those plays. When their quarterbacks threw to Elliott and Barkley, they typically weren’t increasing their probability of scoring points — they were worsening it.

Whether it’s scheme, blocking or the ability of the running backs themselves, some teams are just better at this play-call than others. Comparing overall success rates, we can see a wide range of effectiveness across the league in 2018 when throwing to the RBs.

No team threw to its RBs more than the Patriots, and it obviously worked out OK for them. But that doesn’t mean the Patriots were the best at it — that honor belongs to the AFC runner-up Kansas City Chiefs, who recorded a success rate of 62.6 percent on these throws. The next best team on passes to running backs, the Panthers, posted a success rate of 54.5 percent. In fact, the difference in success rate, 8.1 percentage points, between the best and second-most effective teams — the Chiefs and Panthers — is the same as the difference between the Panthers and the Packers, the 15th-best team at this play.

Despite their high proficiency on such throws, the Chiefs were just 23rd in the share of passes targeted to running backs, though it’s hard to criticize them for not throwing enough to RBs given that they had one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history. And the Chiefs didn’t rely on any one running back for that success: Targets to each of the Chiefs’ primary backs last season — Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Damien Williams — had a success rate of at least 59.5 percent.

This raises a problem for the star running backs trying to prove their worth this season. Because the expected points added on a given play are owned by everyone involved, it would be hard for a running back to claim success rate on targets as his own.

For example, Melvin Gordon is holding out from the Chargers for a new contract — one that would pay him for being more than just a runner. He would reasonably be able to point to the 50.8 percent play success on his 61 targets in 2018. The trouble is that the other top Charger backs, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, were each part of a higher share of successful pass plays than Gordon was, averaging a success rate of 54.2 percent.

Standing out as receivers may be the best chance for running backs trying to get around the depressed salaries at their position. But even with their contributions to the passing game, it still might be a challenge for these RBs to prove that their receiving value also isn’t easily replaced.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

We suffered for years during the Donnell Bennett Era. I don't ever want to be there again.

We've had a good run of backs for a long time now.

[O.city]

Yeah, you've gotta be a weapon catching it for me to even contemplate a significant salary. I probably still wouldn't do it, it's just to easy to find someone that's at worst adequate, but if you can add a Mcaffrey to an offense, it is really helpful.

Especially if you have an innovative HC and a smart QB.

[Skyy God]

"The Kansas City Star's Mac Cheese reports rookie Darwin Thompson has leaped Carlos Hyde on the depth chart and has been getting goal-line work with the first-team offense.

Mac Cheese is the latest Chiefs beat writer to leave Hyde off her 53-man roster projection, keeping Thompson along with Damien and Darrel Williams. Thompson has been so good this preseason, and Hyde has been as bad as Thompson has been good. All Hyde has going for him is his veteran presence; he doesn't play special teams, either. Thompson is picking up big-time steam as a late-round fantasy pick. It's going to be tough to keep him off the field."

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/n...arwin-thompson

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

"The Kansas City Star's Mac Cheese reports rookie Darwin Thompson has leaped Carlos Hyde on the depth chart and has been getting goal-line work with the first-team offense.

Mac Cheese is the latest Chiefs beat writer to leave Hyde off her 53-man roster projection, keeping Thompson along with Damien and Darrel Williams. Thompson has been so good this preseason, and Hyde has been as bad as Thompson has been good. All Hyde has going for him is his veteran presence; he doesn't play special teams, either. Thompson is picking up big-time steam as a late-round fantasy pick. It's going to be tough to keep him off the field."

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/n...arwin-thompson

Brooke Pryor

(testing to see if it autocorrects to Mac Cheese)

Edit: damn.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by Dante84

Brooke Pryor

(testing to see if it autocorrects to Mac Cheese)

Edit: damn.

Personal editorialization, bub. ;

[Mecca]

Darrell Williams has the most special teams snaps of anyone in preseason games so far...that's probably going to matter in the decision.

[BigCatDaddy]

Didnt we keep 4 RBs last year?
Hunt
Ware
Williams and Williams

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Didnt we keep 4 RBs last year?
Hunt
Ware
Williams and Williams

Yes but a lot of that was because they liked Darrell so they made a spot for him. This year the roster has more talent so carrying an extra RB is going to be harder.

[KChiefs1]

A Star will be born on Sunday!

https://youtu.be/UecwHj3q-aM