|
03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
Sexiest Athlete
Join Date: Apr 2001
Casino cash: $41925
|
Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
Posts: 12,674
|
03-23-2013, 05:24 AM | #31 |
Spiraling down the Drain
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Dante's Ninth Circle
Casino cash: $1510588
|
Geno already has a bust ready to go at Canton.
__________________
"We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family." "Fredo. You are my brother, and I love you. But never take sides against the Family again. Ever." 2019 Adopt a Chief - Travis Kelce #87 |
Posts: 32,234
|
03-23-2013, 06:00 AM | #32 |
MVP
Join Date: Dec 2012
Casino cash: $10004980
|
You are QBotF fan profiling. Geno "ballwashers" are the tip of iceberg. A cold razer edged icecycle that can slice.
|
Posts: 5,994
|
03-23-2013, 06:31 AM | #33 |
Mahomes Dynasty
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Parts Unknown
Casino cash: $7872254
|
I dont want to trade Branden Albert
- But if we do...I want a 1st rd pick in return, and Joeckel has to be the first overall pick at that point. If Albert stays, then the best option for KC is to trade down. If they can't trade down, then the best option for KC is to draft Geno Smith, but only as trade bait for teams like Jax/Buf/Oak who openly publically have a hard on for that guy, and acquire more picks, including possibly getting back that 2nd rd pick (and more). If they can't find a trade partner for Geno, then just keep Geno and have Alex Smith play out his contract and have Geno Smith learn the ropes and speed of the game and he can pick up the game running by then much like Rodgers did when Favre left.
__________________
|
Posts: 39,192
|
03-23-2013, 06:41 AM | #34 |
Consuming CP souls
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: U.S.A.
Casino cash: $2538880
|
Joeckel has to be the first overall pick at that point.
What an absolute waste of putting up with 4 years of Scooter *****, Cassel, and a 2-14 season. 2 wins only to replace our damn good LT with a pudgy rook. Not improving the team at all with the number one pick....AWESOME!!
__________________
****Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**** |
Posts: 70,643
|
03-23-2013, 07:06 AM | #35 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $3230478
|
Geno is ****ed, we're ****ed, Andy Reid is ****ed, John Dorsey is ****ed and Clark Hunt is ****ed.
We don't take Geno, and everyone loses. He was meant to be here and our asshole GM and HC are spitting in the face of the football gods.
__________________
Chiefs game films |
Posts: 285,766
|
03-23-2013, 07:08 AM | #36 | |
Mahomes Dynasty
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Parts Unknown
Casino cash: $7872254
|
Quote:
But fact is...if Albert leaves...all of a sudden we have a HUGE gaping hole at LT, with a new QB with a new coaching staff with new players he's not used to playing with.
__________________
|
|
Posts: 39,192
|
03-23-2013, 07:24 AM | #37 | |
Mahomes Fanboi
Join Date: Apr 2004
Casino cash: $1874969
|
Quote:
Great job, huh? |
|
Posts: 19,754
|
03-23-2013, 07:47 AM | #38 |
Amateur Poster
Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $4157091
|
|
Posts: 15,298
|
03-23-2013, 07:56 AM | #39 | |||
Mindful Taoist German
Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $7491662
|
Quote:
All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...
__________________
Quote:
Quote:
|
|||
Posts: 74,925
|
03-23-2013, 08:00 AM | #40 |
Rock Chalk Jayhawks! KU!!!
Join Date: Aug 2005
Casino cash: $7451160
|
IF we had a mod with a sack between her legs, the thread would of been locked after Hamas dropped a Truth bomb on this message board...
|
Posts: 1,275
|
03-23-2013, 08:00 AM | #41 | |
MVP
Join Date: Sep 2005
Casino cash: $4221115
|
Quote:
And there's no "conspiracy theory" about it - there a quote floating around from Reid that said he had his eye on Alex Smith before he ever took the job. |
|
Posts: 60,303
|
03-23-2013, 08:06 AM | #42 | |||
Mindful Taoist German
Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $7491662
|
Quote:
Dorsey will be worshiped like a god. Temples will be erected and at his parking space will be offerings of gold, frankincense and myrrh.
__________________
Quote:
Quote:
|
|||
Posts: 74,925
|
03-23-2013, 08:28 AM | #43 | |
Replaced by a future HOFer !!
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: donkey land
Casino cash: $6637901
|
Quote:
When you are an owner sitting at 2-14 with the best fan base in the NFL that is about ready to commit a mutiny meltdown you will agree to just about anything especially from a previous very successful HC who has several playoff wins, a SB appearance and very good at developing QBs within the last 10yrs who btw ALSO sees a great opportunity with an owner in a very vulnerable situation with a team of good talent, with the No. 1 pick that he can pretty much continue to 'write is own ticket'. Andy ain't no dumb ass Andy sold Clark on the fact that he can do even better than what Harbaugh did with Smith and will take Smith to an even higher level and Smith will be more successful under Andy's tutelage. Andy really believes this because let's back to that age old adage, "ignore what they say and watch what they do" (giving up a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year). You don't give up picks like that unless you 'really' believe you can improve Alex even further to get to the SB. |
|
Posts: 27,062
|
03-23-2013, 08:30 AM | #44 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Northern Kansas
Casino cash: $124349
|
Alex Smith had roster bonuses due. If we were going to take him, we had to before those bonuses kicked in... and had a chance to fully evaluate the QB's in the draft class. We have too good of a team in place to not hedge our bets with Alex.
If Geno grades out... I think we take him. Even though we already had the #1 overall pick, a 1st/2nd/and a conditional is not too much money to invest in the most important position on the football team. Many teams have spent far more than that. My expectations are what Keg outlined at that point. |
Posts: 21,798
|
03-23-2013, 08:31 AM | #45 | |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $3230478
|
Quote:
Albert is out of here. We're taking Joeckel. Best case scenario we trade down and pick one of the other OTs and get someone else in the 2nd. But the dream of Geno has never been deader.
__________________
Chiefs game films |
|
Posts: 285,766
|
|
|