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Old 02-15-2007, 10:50 AM  
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
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What is the Trade value of Larry Johnson?
IF larry johnson was to be traded ... what's his approx. value?


not asking if the Chiefs should trade him ... just what his value would be IF they did.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:01 PM   #31
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I assume you're attempting to extrapolate the likelihood of him "fading quickly" or not.

It doesn't diminish his value to us nearly as much because we already account for his salary.
It certainly does when it's time for a new contract.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:03 PM   #32
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It certainly does when it's time for a new contract.
Signing him to a new contract is incremental to us, as opposed to signing with a new team.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:13 PM   #33
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Signing him to a new contract is incremental to us, as opposed to signing with a new team.
How so? His new contract and salary cap hit will affect us the same way it'd affect any team. Right now, part of his salary might be sunk because of the way the cap works, but certainly none of his new contract could possibly be a sunk cost.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:18 PM   #34
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You'd honestly take one, low 1st-rounder for a guy that holds just about every franchise rushing record there is?
With the holes this team has and with it looking more and more like LJ is going to be the next Wilbur Montgomery? Yeah, I would.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:19 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by htismaqe
I assume you're attempting to extrapolate the likelihood of him "fading quickly" or not.

For my purposes, it's largely irrelevant whether or not he WILL fade. Just the fact that the possibility EXISTS and there's ample evidence of it happening decreases his trade value, IMO. It doesn't diminish his value to us nearly as much because we already account for his salary.
I disagree that there is ample evidence of it happening. People are given a soundbite and go with it without asking questions about previous # of carries, history of injury, age of the back, what about backs that had that many carries once you consider postseason carries, etc.?
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:19 PM   #36
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How so? His new contract and salary cap hit will affect us the same way it'd affect any team. Right now, part of his salary might be sunk because of the way the cap works, but certainly none of his new contract could possibly be a sunk cost.
He already counts against our cap. A new contract would replace the old contract and the old cap hit. If his current contract costs $800K against the cap and his new contract costs $3.2M against the cap, we're actually only using up an additional $2.4M worth of cap space, as opposed to a new team using up the full $3.2M.

In addition, we're not giving up draft picks to sign him.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:21 PM   #37
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With the holes this team has and with it looking more and more like LJ is going to be the next Wilbur Montgomery? Yeah, I would.
EDIT

Eh, maybe not. A first and a fourth, with us swapping second or third rounders, and giving away a sixth rounder the next year sounds better.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:21 PM   #38
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I disagree that there is ample evidence of it happening. People are given a soundbite and go with it without asking questions about previous # of carries, history of injury, age of the back, what about backs that had that many carries once you consider postseason carries, etc.?
The simple fact that it happened is really all it takes to start the ball rolling.

If you think his record-setting season won't weigh on the minds of potential suitors, you're wrong.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:23 PM   #39
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The simple fact that it happened is really all it takes to start the ball rolling.

If you think his record-setting season won't weigh on the minds of potential suitors, you're wrong.
Wait a minute. Are you saying it's silly to take a low first for him, but suitors won't want to offer that much anyway?

Is a low first better than a second and a fifth, ala Marshall Faulk to St. Louis?
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:23 PM   #40
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He already counts against our cap. A new contract would replace the old contract and the old cap hit. If his current contract costs $800K against the cap and his new contract costs $3.2M against the cap, we're actually only using up an additional $2.4M worth of cap space, as opposed to a new team using up the full $3.2M.

In addition, we're not giving up draft picks to sign him.
Yeah, but presumably the acquiring team doesn't get an extra roster spot, and will most likely dump a running back, who may just have an 800k salary cap hit.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:24 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by htismaqe
The simple fact that it happened is really all it takes to start the ball rolling.

If you think his record-setting season won't weigh on the minds of potential suitors, you're wrong.
I never said it wouldn't weigh in the minds of suitors, I also don't know enough about the previous backs or the other questions I raised to see if it is a fair point or not.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:26 PM   #42
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Wait a minute. Are you saying it's silly to take a low first for him, but suitors won't want to offer that much anyway?
That's EXACTLY what I'm saying.

He's worth more than a single, low 1st-round draft pick to the Chiefs, if for no other reason than we already know he can play in the NFL and at a high level. You can't say that about any draft pick with 100% certainty.

Furthermore, it's likely that most teams will offer less than that (ie. the Faulk deal you mentioned) which further reinforces the idea that it would be pretty dumb to trade LJ at this point.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:27 PM   #43
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I never said it wouldn't weigh in the minds of suitors, I also don't know enough about the previous backs or the other questions I raised to see if it is a fair point or not.
I understand that. We have two different points.

You're wanting to know if the concern about his future is valid or invalid.

IMO, it doesn't matter if it is or isn't - the simple fact that the info is out there decreases his trade value.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:33 PM   #44
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I understand that. We have two different points.

You're wanting to know if the concern about his future is valid or invalid.

IMO, it doesn't matter if it is or isn't - the simple fact that the info is out there decreases his trade value.

For instance Emmit Smith had 373 regular season carries in his third season in the NFL. That year Dallas won 3 postseason games (including the Super Bowl). I don't have the specific #'s for postseason carries that year, but it is safe to assume in those 3 games Smith easily broke the 400 yard carry mark. He had a lustrious career after that.

The little factoid that Whitlock is throwing around may be used by another GM, but without a detailed analysis of the situation it might amount to nothing and not result in a decrease in trade value.
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:45 PM   #45
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How about this...

Swap #23 and LJ to the Texans for #8 and #39.

#8 Could land us a top player at one of several positions. And 2 second rounders could fill what is left over from not being taken at #8.
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